Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

Revisiting the national corporate social responsibility index

This paper relies on Gjølberg’s national corporate social responsibility (CSR) index while its purpose is twofold. First, it seeks to extend the methodological instrument for assessing national CSR and, second, it applies the new approach to a much larger pool of countries (n = 86) in an attempt to provide a global CSR outlook. The emergent picture from the study is one of deficient CSR penetration and wide variation among countries where most of the assessed countries are still lagging in the endorsement of international CSR initiatives and schemes. Findings offer fertile ground to theorists and researchers for a deeper investigation of the national specificity of CSR and to further identify institutional determinants that shape the social responsiveness and self-regulation of business entities. The study has also implications for managers and top executives to consider as it infers that the national background can be influential in the development of a CSR agenda and can condition the level of CSR penetration.     

The Value of Using Feasibility Models in Systematic Conservation Planning to Predict Landholder Management Uptake

Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple‐use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders’ willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders’ decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best‐supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost‐effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost‐effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost‐efficient and effective manner.     

夏、冬季降雨中溶解性有机质(DOM)光谱特征及来源辨析

利用紫外-可见光谱与三维荧光光谱,结合拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型及火点图,研究了重庆2013年夏、冬两季雨水DOM光谱特征,并对其来源进行解析.结果表明,雨水DOM与水体、土壤DOM具有类似性质光谱特征,证明降雨DOM也是陆地及水环境中DOM地化特征的重要贡献者.雨水DOM中DOC含量为0.88~12.80 mg·L-1,CDOM含量在3.17~21.11m-1之间,夏、冬两季降雨DOM差异明显(P0.05).与夏季相比,冬季降雨DOM分子量较小,芳香性程度较低,腐殖化程度也更低,输入主要以本地和短距离输送为主;而夏季DOM来源较分散.尽管吸收和荧光光谱可用于解析雨水DOM组成和来源,但在光谱特征的解析和来源识别上与其他来源DOM有所区别,传统"内、外源区分"并不适用于雨水DOM.     

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01393-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

不同锆负载量锆改性膨润土对水中磷酸盐吸附作用的对比

通过实验对比考察了不同锆负载量的锆改性膨润土对水中磷酸盐的吸附作用.结果表明,锆改性膨润土对水中磷酸盐的吸附动力学过程符合准二级动力学模型,整个过程可以分为快速吸附阶段、缓慢吸附阶段和平衡吸附阶段,其中缓慢吸附阶段的吸附速率受膜扩散和颗粒内扩散所控制.锆改性膨润土对水中磷酸盐的吸附等温实验数据可以采用Langmuir、Freundlich、Sips和Dubinin-Radushkevich等温吸附模型进行拟合.实验条件下,磷酸盐吸附性能随pH增加而降低.溶液共存的Na~+、K~+和Ca~(2+)促进了锆改性膨润土对磷酸盐的吸附,并且Ca~(2+)的促进作用远远大于Na~+和K+,而溶液共存的HCO-3和SO2-4一定程度上抑制了锆改性膨润土对磷酸盐的吸附.锆改性膨润土吸附水中磷酸盐的主要机制为配位体交换并形成内层磷酸盐配合物.锆改性膨润土对水中磷酸盐的吸附能力随着锆负载量的增加而增加,而锆改性膨润土中单位质量ZrO_2对水中磷酸盐的吸附量则随着锆负载量的增加而降低.当ZrO_2负载量由3.61%增加到13.15%时锆改性膨润土的最大单层单位吸附量(以P计)显著地由3.83 mg·g~(-1)增加到9.03 mg·g~(-1),而继续增加ZrO_2负载量至19.63%时锆改性膨润土的最大单层单位吸附量则缓慢地提高到9.66 mg·g~(-1)(以P计).当ZrO_2负载量由3.61%逐渐增加到19.63%时,锆改性膨润土中单位质量ZrO_2的磷酸盐最大吸附量[m(P)/m(ZrO_2)]由106 mg·g~(-1)逐渐下降到49.2 mg·g~(-1).综合考虑吸附剂的经济成本和吸附容量,ZrO_2负载量为13.15%锆改性膨润土更为适合作为吸附剂去除水中磷酸盐.     

我国土壤修复行业面临的问题及商业模式分析

基于我国土壤污染的严峻形势,分析了我国土壤修复行业面临的主要问题。针对我国土壤修复资金需求量大,资金来源困难、责任界定情况复杂等现状,探讨了"谁污染,谁治理"、"谁使用,谁治理"、"政府出资"、RT、ROT、ROO、TRT等几种适合我国国情的土壤修复商业模式。同时,结合我国土壤修复行业正处于成长期初级阶段的现实情况,展望了我国土壤修复行业的发展,并给出了一些有益建议。     

北京市大气重污染过程中AQI的时空扩散特征及其预测模型

通过对北京市大气重度污染时段AQI与气象因子分析,探讨AQI的时间和空间变化特征,并建立了AQI的空间预测模型。结果表明:1)风速>2.5 m/s,且持续时间长(超过5 h)时,AQI曲线特征呈现倒"V"型。若其在1.7 m/s中部>北部,4 d后则中部>南部>北部。3)各方向上中部和北部的AQI预测模型中幂函数模型精度最高,且两者受西南方向的影响最大。