STOCHASTIC MODELING OF MONTHLY AND DAILY RAINFALL SEQUENCES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly model and two daily models (I and II) are presented for the purpose of generating monthly and daily rainfall sequences in the Quae Yai river basin in Thailand. Performance of the models are evaluated by comparing the statistical parameters of the generated sequences with those from historical data. For monthly generation, Thomas-Fiering model worked satisfactorily in spite of the monthly correlations being weak, if any. Daily Model I, which assumes no persistence between daily rainfall amounts within the wet spells, could not preserve some important parameters regardless of the simplicity in model construction. Application of multi-state transition probability matrix model gave good results, although the user has to modify some parameters looking at the performance of the model for each historical record.     

Energy analysis and the coupling of man and estuaries

New concepts and insights concerning human and natural systems in the coastal zone are emerging from recent energy analysis and synthesis studies. By using new concepts for measuring the quality of energy, one can express the work of ecosystems and human economies in equivalent terms. From energy models and new energy quality evaluations, one can learn what kinds of coastal systems maximize power, are competitive, economically vital, and likely to have a survival advantage.Energy analysis and synthesis is aided by energy circuit diagrams. Models of the coastal zone that emphasize the change in external driving functions related to world energy sources provide insights and some predictive abilities that are not found in economic studies, since money flows alone do not evaluate external driving energies.This paper suggests four procedures for coastal planning: 1) calculation of investment ratio in units of equal quality to determine which projects are economic in a broad sense, 2) development of energy signatures for coastal ecosystems, 3) determination of which interface ecosystems develop the best energy flows, and 4) development of regional models that include the main features of human and natural ecosystems.     

A MANGANESE OXIDATION MODEL FOR RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: The presence of manganese in natural waters (>0.05 mg/L) degrades water-supply quality. A model was devised to predict the variation of manganese concentrations in river water released from an impoundment with the distance downstream. The model is one-dimensional and was calibrated using dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, pH, manganese, and hydraulic data collected in the Duck River, Tennessee. The results indicated that the model can predict manganese levels under various conditions. The model was then applied to the Chattahoochee River, Georgia. Discrepancies between observed and predicted may be due to inadequate pH data, precipitation of sediment particles, unsteady flow conditions in the Chattahoochee River, inaccurate rate expressions for the low pH conditions, or their combinations.     

Evaluating the impacts of global environmental assessments

There are currently no widely accepted procedures for comparing the performance of global environmental assessments (GEAs) and this may be a barrier to improving their methodology. To encourage greater self-reflection within the GEA community, it is proposed to introduce consistent evaluation approaches. Two elements from current evaluation practice are reviewed here that could be particularly useful for evaluating GEAs. The first are logic models which provide a transparent visual mapping of how activities in a GEA are intended to have impacts on policies. The second are performance metrics. It is proposed that GEAs adopt two kinds of metrics: (i) A common generic set for use in all GEAs to provide a basis for comparing the performance of GEAs, and (ii) a specific set of measureable metrics for each particular GEA derived from/linked to the generic set. Although many issues arise in applying these and other elements from evaluation theory and practice to GEAs, the potential benefits are greater comparability of GEA performance and new knowledge about how to improve them. This Short Communication is part of a Special Issue on solution-oriented GEAs.     

差异性区域网格化环境管理初探

差异性区域网格化环境管理是在环境状况存在明显分异区域进行环境管理的有效的方式。依托网格化管理在资源整合和信息共事方面的优势．探讨在环境状况差异明显区域构建网格化管理体系的目标、步骤与管理思路。以上海市宝山区的实践为例．根据区内环境现状差异明显的特征。将全区划分为150个网格．从中选取环境矛盾较为突出的网格．开展区域环境综合整治与环境建设．逐年逐块提升区域网格环境状况．实现区域环境网格等级的提升．初步达成区域生态、生产、生活的协调。实践表明．差异性区域网格化管理是建设环境友好型社会的一种有效的环境管理手段。     

北京夏季典型PM2.5与O3相继重污染事件分析

根据北京市环境保护监测中心发布的PM2.5和O3小时质量浓度及气象、卫星遥感数据,分析了2013年7月2日至10日北京典型PM2.5及O3重污染过程的质量浓度特征及在大气边界层过程各个阶段的质量浓度演变.结果表明,北京夏季O3质量浓度先于PM2.5达到峰值,而天气型演变是导致这一现象的主要原因.具体过程为:1)重污染初始阶段,高压天气型利于前体物积累,PM2.5及O3质量浓度升高;2)在反气旋中部,由于各种污染物质量浓度较低,对大气紫外波段辐射的吸收较弱,导致该阶段紫外辐射强,因而加快了O3生成的光化学反应,O3质量浓度最先达到峰值;3)在反气旋后部,随PM2.5质量浓度增加,辐射变弱,因此O3质量浓度增加速度下降,而受高压后部影响,区域内PM2.5经东南风输送通道进入北京,导致北京PM2.5质量浓度相继达到峰值;4)在重污染清除阶段,在北方反气旋前部的冷锋清除作用下,PM2.5及O3质量浓度同时降低至谷值.     

Calibrating a Basin‐Scale Groundwater Model to Remotely Sensed Estimates of Groundwater Evapotranspiration

Remotely sensed vegetation indices correspond to canopy vigor and cover and have been successfully used to estimate groundwater evapotranspiration (ET_g) over large spatial and temporal scales. However, these data do not provide information on depth to groundwater (dtgw) necessary for groundwater models (GWM) to calculate ET_g. An iterative approach is provided that calibrates GWM to ET_g derived from Landsat estimates of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). The approach is applied to different vegetation groups in Mason Valley, Nevada over an 11‐year time span. An uncertainty analysis is done to estimate the resulting mean and 90% confidence intervals in ET_g to dtgw relationships to quantify errors associated with plant physiologic complexity, species variability, and parameter smoothing to the 100 m GWM‐grid, temporal variability in soil moisture and nonuniqueness in the solution. Additionally, a first‐order second moment analysis shows ET_g to dtgw relationships are almost exclusively sensitive to estimated land surface, or maximum, ET_g despite relatively large uncertainty in extinction depths and hydraulic conductivity. The EVI method of estimating ET_g appears to bias ET_g during years with exceptionally wet spring/summer conditions. Excluding these years improves model performance significantly but highlights the need to develop a methodology that accounts not only on quantity but timing of annual precipitation on phreatophyte greenness.     

基于BP神经网络的矿车运行时矿井摩擦阻力的预测*

为了快速有效地确定矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时矿井摩擦阻力的变化情况,克服模拟软件计算量和现场实测工作量大的问题,以巷道风流速度、矿车运行速度、阻塞比、矿车长度4个矿车运行时巷道摩擦阻力的影响因素作为切入点,采用动网格技术模拟得到矿车在巷道内运行时有关矿井摩擦阻力的数据,以此为样本构建基于BP神经网络的矿井摩擦阻力预测模型,运用MATLAB软件进行网络训练,并将BP神经网络预测值与FLUENT模拟值进行对比。研究结果表明:BP神经网络结构比较简单,能以较快速度收敛,预测值与模拟值最大误差在7%以内,该神经网络模型用于求解矿车等运输设备在巷道内运行时摩擦阻力的变化情况是可行的。     

The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.     

Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes

Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions.