最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法,分析0~30d滞后影响,研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41,变化趋势整体呈现出V字型,在低温附近,温度越低,RR越高;滞后0~4d,极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著;滞后5~19d,在日均最低温度0℃附近,出现新的峰值,冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降,热效应对RR的贡献完全消失;滞后20~30d,日均最低温度为-10℃时,出现RR最小值,0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值;滞后22d时,滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下,呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性,对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长,患病风险更大.     

垃圾渗滤液与再生水生物毒性的体外检测方法应用

本文总结了近年来在垃圾渗滤液和再生水生物毒性检测方面的主要体外试验模型和检测方法,并整理了这些模型和方法在生物毒性评价中的应用.目前常用的体外试验模型包括人源细胞系、其他哺乳动物细胞以及微生物细胞,相比较而言,人源细胞系在检测结果外推至人体时具有更强的说服力,因而其应用最为广泛.体外检测方法可概括为细胞毒性、遗传毒性和内分泌干扰效应检测三个方面,其中内分泌干扰效应的研究较多集中于雌激素效应.最后,本文提出开发三维体外细胞模型、体外试验与化学分析相结合、全面分析内分泌干扰效应和建立成组体外试验体系是渗滤液和再生水生物毒性检测方法的发展方向.     

时空效应下PM2.5的环境库兹涅茨曲线——基于动态空间面板视角

经济发展与环境保护的平衡一直是人们关心的话题,为分析空气质量水平与经济发展程度之间的关系,即环境库兹涅茨曲线,本研究利用2013—2017年中国省级PM_(2.5)污染数据,运用动态空间面板数据模型,从而控制相邻省份的空气质量水平与本地上期污染水平,实证分析中国PM_(2.5)环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性及空间溢出性.结果表明:①PM_(2.5)的环境库兹涅茨曲线在省级基础上表现为倒U形,即随着初期经济水平的发展,大气污染会不断增加,在经济发展到一定水平后,大气污染开始降低;②东部、中部省份的空气污染表现与全国一致,而西部省份尚无显著趋势,只有第一产业产量与空气污染水平呈负相关;③中国整体的PM_(2.5)污染具有显著的空间溢出性;④对二氧化硫和氮氧化物进行环境库兹涅茨曲线研究,发现全国平均而言还处在大气污染的上升阶段.研究表明,中国各地区处在大气污染发展路径的不同阶段上,而且空气污染的治理模式应采取区域联合分块治理的策略.     

我国典型城市环境大气挥发性有机物特征比值

城市环境大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)比值能够提供有用信息.基于在我国典型城市进行的7次VOCs观测数据,利用正交最小二乘法(ODR)、线性拟合法等4种方法计算了VOCs组分比值,并探讨其在监测数据质量评估、来源诊断和光化学过程研究中的应用.结果显示:间,对-二甲苯与邻-二甲苯浓度在7次观测中均呈现非常好的相关性(r为0.975~0.997),且不同观测中比值接近(2.78~3.05),这一比值可以用来对城市大气VOCs(尤其是芳香烃)测量数据的可靠性进行评估.以甲苯/苯(T/B)和丙烷/乙烷(P/E)为例初步分析了我国不同城市大气VOCs来源的差异.上海和广州T/B最高,分别为2.37和1.78,高于隧道实验中T/B比值(1.52),说明还受到溶剂涂料等富含甲苯的排放源影响,北京夏季T/B与隧道实验接近,而成都、北京冬季和重庆T/B较低(0.744~1.36),说明受到生物质燃烧、煤燃烧等其他富含苯的排放源影响.P/E分析结果显示,广州P/E(1.27)显著高于其他数据集(0.270~0.645),与2010年广州部分公交车和出租车仍利用液化石油气(LPG)作为燃料有关.另外,基于邻-二甲苯/乙苯变化特征表征光化学反应程度,并初步估算出典型城市大气上午·OH暴露量为(2.70~4.45)×10~(10)molecule·cm~(-3)·s.     

腐蚀产物性质对金属大气腐蚀过程影响的研究

首先简要阐述了金属大气腐蚀的机理及过程,介绍了大气腐蚀过程中腐蚀产物的种类。然后分别从腐蚀产物的物理性质、化学性质(电化学)等方面对金属大气腐蚀过程影响的研究进行了探讨,并着重总结了腐蚀产物光电性质对金属腐蚀的影响。最后对该研究方向进行了展望。     

过渡流下三列圆柱传热特性的数值模拟

为了研究过渡流状态下管外流体流动与传热特性的影响因素,利用基于复合网格系统的计算方法,对不同横向间距比与纵向间距比下的三列交叉圆柱列进行数值研究。研究结果表明,纵向间距一定时,横向间距对旋涡的位置及强弱有显著影响,且因上游圆柱不稳定性尾流对下游圆柱的洗刷作用使圆柱列存在一个最佳横向间距使换热效果最佳;横向间距一定时,三列交叉圆柱列的换热效果均随纵向间距的增大而递减。     

宝鸡市夏季臭氧及其前体物污染特征研究

采用宝鸡市2014年夏季臭氧相关监测数据对臭氧及其前体物污染特征进行研究。结果表明:多云导致的太阳辐射降低对臭氧浓度下降贡献40%,降水对臭氧浓度降低贡献55%。O3与NOx在辐射时段内呈一次负相关,相关系数为0.96,在无辐射时段无显著相关性。O3与CO在辐射时段呈二次线性负相关,相关系数为0.92,在无辐射时段呈二次线性正相关,相关系数为0.96。宝鸡市夏季CO/NOx比值为40.5。     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

A spatial approach to combatting wildlife crime

Poaching can have devastating impacts on animal and plant numbers, and in many countries has reached crisis levels, with illegal hunters employing increasingly sophisticated techniques. We used data from an 8‐year study in Savé Valley Conservancy, Zimbabwe, to show how geographic profiling—a mathematical technique originally developed in criminology and recently applied to animal foraging and epidemiology—can be adapted for use in investigations of wildlife crime. The data set contained information on over 10,000 incidents of illegal hunting and the deaths of 6,454 wild animals. We used a subset of data for which the illegal hunters’ identities were known. Our model identified the illegal hunters’ home villages based on the spatial locations of the hunting incidences (e.g., snares). Identification of the villages was improved by manipulating the probability surface inside the conservancy to reflect the fact that although the illegal hunters mostly live outside the conservancy, the majority of hunting occurs inside the conservancy (in criminology terms, commuter crime). These results combined with rigorous simulations showed for the first time how geographic profiling can be combined with GIS data and applied to situations with more complex spatial patterns, for example, where landscape heterogeneity means some parts of the study area are less likely to be used (e.g., aquatic areas for terrestrial animals) or where landscape permeability differs (e.g., forest bats tend not to fly over open areas). More broadly, these results show how geographic profiling can be used to target antipoaching interventions more effectively and more efficiently and to develop management strategies and conservation plans in a range of conservation scenarios.     

Implications of network particle tracking (NPT) for ecological model interpretation

Network particle tracking (NPT), building on the foundation of network environ analysis (NEA), is a new development in the definition of coherence relations within and between connected systems. This paper evaluates three ecosystem models in a comparison of throughflow- and storage-based NEA and NPT. Compartments in models with high indirect effects and Finn cycling showed low correlation of NEA storage and throughflow with particle repeat visits and numbers of particles in compartments at steady state. Conversely, the correlation between NEA and NPT results was high with two models having lower indirect effects and Finn cycling. Analysis of ecological orientors associated with NEA showed NPT to fully support conventional NEA results when the common conditions of donor control and steady state are satisfied. Particle trajectories are recorded in the new concept of a particle “passport”. Ability to track and record particle in-system histories enables views of multiple scales and opens the possibility of making pathway-dependent modeling decisions. NPT may also enable modeling of time, allowing integration of Newtonian, organismal and stochastic modeling perspectives in a single comprehensive analysis.