The potential of statistical state space models in urban ozone forecasting

State space models for tropospheric urban ozone prediction are introduced and compared with linear regression models. The linear and non-linear state space models make accurate short-term predictions of the ozone dynamics. The average prediction error one hour in advance is 7 μg/m³ and increases logarithmically with time until it reaches 26 μg/m³ after 30 days. For a given sequence of solar radiation inputs, predictions converge exponentially with a time scale of 8 hours, so that the model is insensitive to perturbations of more than 150 μg/m³ O₃. The slow increase of the prediction error in addition to the uniqueness of the prediction are encouraging for applications of state space models in forecasting ozone levels when coupled with a model that predicts total radiation. Since a radiation prediction model will be more accurate during cloud-free conditions, in addition to the fact that the state space models perform better during the summer months, state space models are suitable for applications in sunny environments.     

The role of wind field, mixing height and horizontal diffusivity investigated through two lagrangian particle models

Two Lagrangian particle models, APOLLO and MILORD, were used to simulate the first ETEX experiment. The role played by wind field, mixing height h and horizontal diffusivity K_H appeared to be the most important aspects to be studied. The sensitivity to the accuracy of the input advection field was studied through the application of APOLLO using different ECMWF data sets differing in space and time resolution and in being forecasted or analysed, corresponding to the real-time, emergency-like condition, and to the a posteriori benchmark simulation. The role of h and K_H was investigated by running both APOLLO and MILORD with different parameterisations, and comparing the model results between them and with the available observations.The model evaluation was carried out through a set of statistical indexes computed on three hourly average concentrations paired in space and time and time-integrated concentrations. It was found that the quality of the input wind field plays a major role in predicting with sufficient accuracy the plume position and extension after the first 24 h from the beginning of the release. The best-model results are obtained with large values of K_H (in the range of 2.5×10⁴–4.5×10⁴ m² s^-1), which confirms the need to enhance the horizontal diffusion, in order to include the advection fluctuations unresolved by large-scale meteorological fields. A fixed value of h in the range 1000–1500 m seems to be more efficient than space and time variable h computed with standard algorithms. A reasonable explanation for this result is given, based on the consideration that in the long range, particles diffuse also in the residual layer above the stable nocturnal boundary layer.     

紫外光助O3、H2O2氧化降解炼油废碱水的可行性实验

炼油高浓度有机废碱水是石化行业中很难降解的废水.本实验用光化学氧化技术对其进行了降解研究,比较了紫外光/空气、紫外光/O3、紫外光/空气/H2O2系统的处理效果.结果表明,光化学氧化技术降解此废水是可行的,紫外光可使废水中COD、油、酚的降解率明显提高.当废水中O3的投加量每小时为22 mg/L,或H2O2投加量为1%/L时,UV/O3法与UV/空气/H2O2法的降解效果相近.同时,通过控制O3浓度或H2O2的投加量等条件,可使废水中COD、油、酚和硫化物降解到地方污染物二级排放标准.     

长沙市大气中醛酮类化合物浓度变化特征

参照美国环保署EPA-TO11标准方法,于2014年7—10月监测了长沙市大气中醛酮类化合物的质量浓度。主要监测到的醛酮类化合物为甲醛、乙醛、丙酮、丙醛、甲基丙烯醛,夏季质量浓度最高的是甲醛(13.86 mg/m³),其次是乙醛(7.28 mg/m³)、丙酮(7.14 mg/m³),秋季质量浓度最高的是甲醛(10.31 mg/m³),其次是丙酮(8.37 mg/m³)、乙醛(5.78 mg/m³)。夏季醛酮类化合物的总量高于秋季,甲醛、乙醛、丙酮的质量浓度最大值基本出现在13:00—15:00。C1/C2(甲醛/乙醛)、C2/C3(乙醛/丙醛)的平均值分别为2.02、10.19。分析了醛酮类化合物之间的相关性以及它们可能的来源。丙醛和甲醛、乙醛的相关性较好,三者有共同的人为来源。夏季大气中除丙酮外,其他醛酮类化合物的相关性均较好。夏季甲基丙烯醛和甲醛、乙醛、丙酮有相同的自然来源。综合分析可知,长沙大气中醛酮类化合物质量浓度受自然因素和人为因素的双重影响。     

基于任务特征的电网企业应急预案体系重构*

为解决目前电网企业应急预案体系建设存在的内容泛化、管理成本高等问题,提出基于任务特征的应急预案体系重构思路,运用情景构建方法,开展电网企业突发事件影响场景和处置任务分析,得出7个影响场景、10类处置任务和38项子任务。结果表明:电网企业应急处置任务具有收敛性特征。通过应急预案与处置任务匹配,重构应急预案体系结构和预案定位,构建以通用性部门应急预案及现场处置方案为建设重点的新型应急预案体系,形成“通用性预案工具箱”,实现预案衔接“无缝化”、预案内容“本地化”、管理成本“聚焦化”。     

Decision-support tools for dynamic management

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.     

环保制度改革下网格化环境监管发展对策建议

以环境监测监察执法垂直管理制度、镇域综合执法改革、排污许可证"一证式"管理为例,简述环保制度改革要求及各项制度可能对网格化监管产生的影响,结合江苏省各地网格化监管调研情况,分析网格化监管与制度改革的关系,提出网格化环境监管与各项制度未来协同发展的对策建议。     

格栅类通透性吊顶对自动喷水灭火系统水量分布影响的实验研究

本文通过实验研究了自动喷水灭火系统在安装格栅类通透性吊顶后的水量分布特性。研究结果表明：格栅会严重改变自动洒水喷头的水量分布,其影响与喷头的安装高度和工作压力有关。当压力增加时,无格栅区域的水量增加明显大于有格栅的区域的水量增加。增大水压时,格栅对水量的分布的影响会减弱,当压力足够大时,能够接近无格栅时的灭火效率,可以保证自动喷水灭火系统在安装格栅吊顶后的灭火有效性。本文研究成果对实际工程应用具有指导意义。     

Kinetics study on photochemical oxidation of polyacrylamide by ozone combined with hydrogen peroxide and ultraviolet radiation

An investigation on the process of ozone combined with hydrogen peroxide and ultraviolet radiation has been carried out in order to establish the kinetics for photochemical oxidation of polyacrylamide （PAM） in aqueous solution. Effects of operating parameters, including initial PAM concentration, dosages of ozone and hydrogen peroxide, UV radiation and pH value on the photochemical oxidation of PAM, have been studied. There was an increase in photochemical oxidation rate of PAM with increasing of dosages of 03, H2O2 and ultraviolet radiation. Upon increasing of the initial PAM concentration, the photochemical oxidation rate of PAM decreased. Slight effect of pH value on the photochemical oxidation rate of PAM was observed in the experiments. The kinetics equation for the photochemical oxidation of PAM by the system has been established.