宁波市农村生活污水处理模式研究

对现有农村污水治理方式进行了总结和效果评价。提出了适合宁波地区农村污水治理的4类模式。分别是污废合流的集中模式、分散模式,污废分流的分散模式、过渡模式。分析了模式选择的影响因素,分别是人口规模、集聚模式、地形、地质条件、功能区域,并对目标村庄进行亍相应分类,建立数学模型探讨了集中与分散模式的经济距离以及集中模式下户均投资的控制距离,最后根据研究成果对首批实施的14个行政村25个自然村的生活污水治理模式进行了选择。     

River environmental decision support system development for Suzhou Creek in Shanghai

The Suzhou Creek Rehabilitation Project (SCRP) is one of the largest water-related environmental rehabilitation schemes ever undertaken in the vicinity of Shanghai, China. This paper details the development and application of a River Environmental Decision Support System (REDSS) for scientific planning and decision-making on the Suzhou Creek project, and illustrates the flexibility of the REDSS framework. We developed the following components: (1) a GIS-based analysis employing Component technology; (2) a "data mart" for multi-dimensional, multi-level, integrated, dynamic, and flexible data querying; and (3) a set of hydrodynamic and water quality models which can simulate complex tidal river networks. In addition, we detail how a water quality assessment model is embedded into the REDSS by employing an Identification Index Method. With the REDSS, all GIS and non-GIS components are integrated seamlessly and data from different sources can be queried simultaneously. This allows for various scenarios to be simulated and analyzed in advance to predict and assess the effects of proposed engineering and management measures. Generated information can thus support effective decisions. All operations of the REDSS can be implemented conveniently through user-friendly interfaces. The function of the REDSS framework is demonstrated through an application to Suzhou Creek. Because the REDSS characteristics are quite general, it may be applied in different geographic regions.     

Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor,Alachlor, Metolachlor,and Metribuzin1

Lerch, R.N., E.J. Sadler, C. Baffaut, N.R. Kitchen, and K.A. Sudduth, 2010. Herbicide Transport in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed: II. Long‐Term Research on Acetochlor, Alachlor, Metolachlor, and Metribuzin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00504.x Abstract: Farmers in the Midwestern United States continue to be reliant on soil‐applied herbicides for weed control in crop production, and herbicide contamination of streams remains an environmental problem. The main objective of this study was to analyze trends in concentration and load of acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and metribuzin in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) from 1992 to 2006. A secondary objective was to document the effects of best management practices (BMPs) implemented within GCEW on herbicide transport trends. Median relative herbicide loads, as a percent of applied, were 3.7% for metolachlor, 1.3% for metribuzin, 0.36% for acetochlor, and 0.18% for alachlor. The major decrease in alachlor use and increase in acetochlor use caused shifts in flow‐weighted concentrations that were observed over the entire concentration range. The smaller decrease in metolachlor use led to a consistent decreasing time trend only for the upper end of the concentration distribution. Metribuzin also showed moderate decreases in concentration with time since 1998. Annual loads were generally correlated to second quarter discharge. Despite extensive education efforts in the watershed, conservation BMPs within GCEW were mainly implemented to control erosion, and therefore had no discernable impact on reducing herbicide transport. Overall, changes in herbicide use and second quarter discharge had the greatest effect on trends in flow‐weighted concentration and annual load.     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.     

土壤养分空间估测方法研究综述

土壤养分是土壤提供的植物生长发育所必需的营养元素。由于受到自然因素和人为因素的共同作用,土壤养分具有高度的空间变异性。土壤的这种特性不仅表现在区域尺度上,而且也表现在田块尺度上。在研究方法上经历了从传统统计学到地统计学,再到神经网络、地理信息技术以及高精度曲面建模等新方法的不断改进过程。文章从地统计学方法引入到土壤养分空间变异研究中为出发点,论述了国内外基于地统计学的土壤养分空间变异的研究现状,主要包括利用地统计学方法来确定合理的土壤采样数目,土壤养分空间变异的定量化研究,土壤养分空间变异的尺度效应;然后简述了神经网络、地理信息技术、高精度曲面建模等技术在土壤养分空间变异研究中的研究现状和应用。最后对比分析了各种研究方法在应用中存在的缺陷,同时指明了今后应加强作物生长的不同时期土壤养分的空间变异性、土壤在四维空间尺度上的演变机理以及环境信息获取的不确定性等方面的研究。     

Accurate prediction of air quality response to emissions for effective control policy design

Designing effective control policy requires accurate quantification of the relationship between the ambient concentrations of O₃and PM_2.5and the emissions of their precursors.However,the challenge is that precursor reduction does not necessarily lead to decreases in the concentrations of O₃and PM_2.5,which are formed by multiple precursors under complex physical and chemical processes;this calls for the development of advanced model technologies to prov...     

基于多种新型受体模型的PM2.5来源解析对比

为了解多种新型受体模型的适用性,利用正定矩阵分解/多元线性引擎2-物种比值（PMF/ME2-SR）、偏目标转换-正定矩阵分解（PTT-PMF）、正定矩阵分解（PMF）和化学质量平衡（CMB）这4种受体模型对我国北方典型城市细颗粒物(PM_2.5)数据进行同步解析并互相验证.结果发现,燃煤源（25%～26%）、扬尘源（19%～21%）、二次硝酸盐（17%～19%）、二次硫酸盐（16%）、机动车源（13%～15%）、生物质燃烧源（4%～7%）和钢铁源（1%～2%）这7种主要污染源对研究地区PM_2.5有贡献.通过比较不同模型获得的源成分谱和源贡献以及计算各源的差异系数（CD）和平均绝对误差（AAE）,发现4种模型的解析结果具有较高的一致性（平均CD值在0.6～0.7之间）,但不同模型对各污染源中组分的识别存在差异.相比于传统PMF模型,PMF/ME2-SR模型由于纳入一次源类的特征比值,能够更好地区分源谱特征较为相似的源类,如扬尘源的CD和AAE分别比PMF模型低15%和54%; PTT-PMF模型以实测一次源谱和虚拟二次源谱为约束目标,计算的二次硫...     

GSK-XGBoost模型在井底风温预测中的应用*

为防治矿井热害,针对矿井井底风温在预测过程中精度较低的问题,提出1种网格搜索法结合K折交叉验证优化XGBoost的预测模型。通过分析确定影响井底风温的主要因素,使用网格搜索算法结合K折交叉验证,进行迭代缩小搜索范围并调参,选取最优参数配置,实现对XGBoost模型的优化,得到预测结果并与其他模型进行比较。研究结果表明:初始参数经优化后,当最大回归树深度为3且学习速率为0.1时,XGBoost回归模型性能最佳,与随机森林模型、BP神经网络模型、T-S模糊神经网络模型相比,平均相对误差分别降低了2.12%,0.88%,0.3%,均方根误差分别降低了0.66,0.24,0.11 ℃。     

三种生产论：可持续发展的基本理论

本文通过研究人与环境的辩证关系，提出了物质生产、人的生产和环境生产是可持续发展系统的基本模型，分析了三种生产之间的和谐关系，并对深化环境影响评价、开展环境建设、建立新伙伴关系等问题进行了探讨。     

基于空间面板模型的碳排放影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例

随着全球变暖问题的日益严峻,气候问题引起了国际社会的广泛关注。长江经济带作为中国区域发展"三大战略"之一,面临着严峻的碳减排压力。为此,以二氧化碳排放为测度指标,定量分析了1998~2012年长江经济带二氧化碳的时空格局特征,并构建碳排放影响因素的空间面板模型,分析了产业结构、人口总量、经济水平、技术水平与城市化水平对长江经济带碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:1碳排放的绝对差异呈增大趋势,相对差异呈波动变化趋势;碳排放与人均GDP(1997年不变价)的相关性较弱;2碳排放空间格局相对稳定,高碳排放区域以江苏为中心,逐渐向四周扩散;3空间面板模型结果表明:人口总量是影响长江经济带碳排放时空格局演化的决定性因素,其次依次为经济水平、技术水平和城市化水平。