Progress in global ecological modelling

The development of ecological modelling on global level since the middle of the 19th century is first reviewed, including application of statistical analysis, introduction of logistic curve, earth surface modeling, systems ecology, computer-oriented mathematical models and spatially explicit models. Finally, we discuss problems existing in ecological modelling on global level.     

Effectiveness of Multi‐Site Weather Generator for Hydrological Modeling1

Khalili, Malika, François Brissette, and Robert Leconte, 2011. Effectiveness of Multi‐site Weather Generator for Hydrological Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00514.x Abstract: A multi‐site weather generator has been developed using the concept of spatial autocorrelation. The multi‐site generation approach reproduces the spatial autocorrelations observed between a set of weather stations as well as the correlations between each pair of stations. Its performance has been assessed in two previous studies using both precipitation and temperature data. The main objective of this paper is to assess the efficiency of this multi‐site weather generator compared to a uni‐site generator with respect to hydrological modeling. A hydrological model, known as Hydrotel, was applied over the Chute du Diable watershed, located in the Canadian province of Quebec. The distributed nature of Hydrotel accounts for the spatial variations throughout the watershed, and thus allows a more in‐depth assessment of the effect of spatially dependent meteorological input on runoff generation. Simulated streamflows using both the multi‐site and uni‐site generated weather data were statistically compared to flows modeled using observed data. Overall, the hydrological modeling using the multi‐site weather generator significantly outperformed that using the uni‐site generator. This latter combined to Hydrotel resulted in a significant underestimation of extreme streamflows in all seasons.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTRATROPICAL STORMINESS IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide is projected to change the circulation of the atmosphere, increase its moisture content, warm the surface layers, and increase precipitation. Extratropical storms are the intermediate agent in mid-latitudes between changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and surface water resources. The climatology of extratropical storms for the period 1885–1996 is presented, and major changes in storminess are detected across much of North America. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of storm frequency and storm track are found to have little in common with the observed pattern of storms and evidence no systematic changes in response to an enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.     

Construction of evolving models for the environmental evaluation of innovative sub-systems based on a hierarchical agglomerative clustering

This paper deals with simplifying the environmental evaluation of an innovative sub-system related to the future complex system that will include it, by using evolving generic models built on a limited number of characteristics. For a complex system range, the evolving approach of the environmental modelling aims to generate a learning dynamics, to avoid the paralysing complexity induced in design by the valuation of many components according to many impact categories. Applied to the automotive sector, dendrograms are made with results of life cycle assessments (LCA) of 17 vehicles for 4 environmental indicators and on 3 life cycle steps. In an iterative process, a limit condition threshold on the resulting relative errors aims to cluster the vehicles. First, several calculation methods of dendrograms are tested. Second, the influence of the limit condition on the models is observed. Lastly, by simulating the vehicle population increase, the modelling capacity to evolve is tested. Five vehicle characteristics are sufficient to identify a model to be equivalent to the future vehicle. While the number of clusters is increased to simplify their identification with the system characteristics, the relative error variability increases too. The generic models are stable when adding LCA's results.     

Models of taiga-steppe communities on the western coast of Lake Baikal

As a result of monitoring spatial changes in the cenotic structure of plant communities at the taiga-extrazonal steppe boundary on the western coast of Lake Baikal, models of taiga-steppe communities reflecting the formation, dynamics, and genesis of forests in the taiga zone have been constructed. Changes in the species composition of communities, mesophytization of steppes, the expansion of moss synusiae characteristic of polydominant dark conifer and light conifer taiga forests, active forest invasion into steppe areas, and the presence of dark conifer tree species in light conifer forests have been revealed.     

Reverse logistics network design: a conceptual framework for decision making

Reverse logistics play a significantly increased role in supply chains. Producers are incorporating reverse logistics into their supply chain design because of governmental legislation, economic benefits from product recovery, and customers' demands for better environmental practices. Motivated producers face two main challenges in reverse logistics network design: (1) how do you build product recovery activities into traditional forward logistics networks? and (2) how do you manage the impact of uncertainty in the reverse logistics supply chain? Moreover, producers need to consider many tradeoffs leading to efficient network design. Published case studies have discussed these tradeoffs, and we describe a framework to evaluate these tradeoff considerations. We then apply the framework to three new case studies: medical device refurbishing, municipal e‐waste recycling, and carpet fibre recycling.     

云南电网地质灾害易损性评估与区划

云南电网几乎覆盖云南全境,已有的灾害历史表明：地质灾害可以导致电网设备产生物理性损伤,致使电网不能正常运行,甚至产生连锁反应,造成局部电网瘫痪.目前国内学者在电力系统易损性领域的研究还处于起步阶段,尚无应用广泛的规范性易损性评价模型.围绕云南电网地质灾害易损性评估,提出了基于内生易损性和外因易损性的电网地质灾害易损性评估方法;采用统计分析方法,以云南电网本身健康指数和历史地质灾害资料为依据,通过从内生易损性和外因易损性对云南各市（州）局电网进行了地质灾害易损性评估;按四级分区法绘制了云南电网地质灾害易损性区划图.研究结果表明,云南省作为地质灾害多发易发省份,云南电网有43.75％部分处于地质灾害高易损性等级以上,电网的安全运行受到较严重的威胁,分析结果可为云南电网地质灾害防灾减灾管理等提供参考依据.     

水雾荷电振弦纤维栅除尘器除尘性能影响因素的实验研究

为研究除尘系统结构最优配置,实验采用新型高效水雾荷电振弦栅除尘方法,以除尘效率及阻力损失为参照结果,选定纤维栅板数量、纤维栅与喷嘴间距、纤维栅材料和间隙4个因素进行单因素试验,针对各因素对纤维栅除尘效率的影响进行了分析研究,结果表明多块纤维栅除尘效果明显优于单块纤维栅,正常处理风速时3块纤维栅的除尘效率最高,纤维栅阻力与其数量呈正比;纤维栅除尘效率随间距增大而先增后减,间距为230 mm时除尘效率最高;塑胶纤维栅除尘效果明显优于其他材料,各阻力值排序为:塑胶＞涤纶＞不锈钢＞尼龙;纤维栅除尘效率随纤维间隙增大而降低,其阻力随间隙增大而减小;利用SPSS软件进行4因素三水平正交试验分析,在特定条件下除尘效率显著性排序为:纤维栅数=纤维栅间隙＞纤维材料＞纤维栅与喷嘴间距;阻力损失显著性排序为:纤维栅数=纤维栅间隙=纤维材料=纤维栅与喷嘴间距;试验最佳配置为3块间隙0.6 mm尼龙纤维栅板,且纤维栅板距喷嘴最小间距为185 mm。     

Lead removal from contaminated water using mineral adsorbents

This study records experiments undertaken to determine the suitable conditions for the use of naturally occurring minerals (talc, chalcopyrite and barite) as an adsorbent for the removal of lead ions from liquid wastes. The adsorption of lead ions from solutions containing different initial lead concentrations (50, 100, 200, 400, 600, 800 and 1000 mg l^–1 Pb as lead nitrate) using different size fractions (<63 m, 63–150 m) of talc, chalcopyrite and barite at different pH (3, 5, 7 and 9) and different adsorption times (24, 48, 72 and 96 hr) was examined. The results revealed that of the studied minerals, the chalcopyrite fraction at 63–150 m showed the highest adsorption capacity. The adsorption data of Pb ions was also analyzed with the help of the Langmuir and Freundlich models to evaluate the mechanistic parameters associated with the adsorption process. The adsorption isotherms obtained from the Langmuir and Freundlich equations were generally linear and the adsorption of Pb by the studied minerals was correlated with the adsorption maximum and binding energy constant of the Langmuir equation and equilibrium partition constant and binding partition coefficient of the Freundlich equation. It was concluded that the equilibrium time of adsorption was 72 hr at an optimum pH from 7 to 9. This technique might be successfully used for the removal of lead ions from liquid industrial wastes and wastewater.     

A WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR A CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE-GROUNDWATER SYSTEM: AN OVERVIEW1

ABSTRACT. A mathematical model to predict water quality in a surface-groundwater system is under development. This project is being sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency. The ultimate goal of this study is to obtain cause and effect relationships between pollutant sources and the ensuing concentrations at different locations in a basin. Several programs are used to model the various hydrologic processes occurring in nature, namely: rainfall, runoff, flow in surface bodies of water, infiltration, and groundwater flow. At every time step in the simulation, the water quantity computations for the above hydrologic models are performed first. Subsequently, the results of these computations, typically in the form of flow velocities, are used as input to the water quality calculations. The water quality routines involve the modeling of the associated physical, chemical, and biological processes. In this study, emphasis is being placed on pollution in agricultural areas. Accordingly the Lake Apopka basin in Central Florida is being used as the application site.