A method to combine non-probability sample data with probability sample data in estimating spatial means of environmental variables

In estimating spatial means of environmental variables of a region from datacollected by convenience or purposive sampling, validity of the results canbe ensured by collecting additional data through probability sampling. Theprecision of the estimator that uses the probability sample can beincreased by interpolating the values at the nonprobability sample points tothe probability sample points, and using these interpolated values as anauxiliary variable in the difference or regression estimator. Theseestimators are (approximately) unbiased, even when the nonprobability sampleis severely biased such as in preferential samples. The gain in precisioncompared to the estimator in combination with Simple Random Samplingis controlled by the correlation between the target variable andinterpolated variable. This correlation is determined by the size (density)and spatial coverage of the nonprobability sample, and the spatialcontinuity of the target variable. In a case study the average ratio of thevariances of the simple regression estimator and estimator was 0.68for preferential samples of size 150 with moderate spatial clustering, and0.80 for preferential samples of similar size with strong spatialclustering. In the latter case the simple regression estimator wassubstantially more precise than the simple difference estimator.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

三权分置改革中新型农业经营主体的政策认知及其行为响应——以上海市青浦区为例

农村土地三权分置是现阶段我国农地产权制度的重大创新,其政策逻辑是通过农地产权的细化和明晰促进资源的优化配置,以推动农业转型发展。但是三权分置能否改善人们对土地产权的长期、安全、稳定的预期,改变经营主体的行为方式,依然有待实践的检验。以新型经营主体对政策的认知为切入点,以三权分置实践较早的上海市青浦区为典型案例,在问卷调查和实地访谈的基础上,基于“三权分置改革—主体认知—行为响应”的政策传导机制,应用结构方程模型,研究新型农业经营主体的政策认知程度对其规模经营行为、长期投入行为和向环境友好型农业转型等行为的影响。结果显示：新型农业经营主体对三权分置政策的认知对其三大类生产经营行为的转变均存在显著影响;并且认知程度越深,其实践农业生产方式转型的可能性越大。需要进一步完善配套制度建设、加强三权分置政策的宣传和解释力度,提升农业从业者人力资本水平,为农业转型升级提供内生动力。     

基于区域一体化背景下的长三角环境经济政策优化研究

基于长三角区域社会、经济、环保一体化高质量发展要求,全面调研"三省一市"(上海、江苏、浙江、安徽)2011—2017年环境经济政策出台情况,并开展评估分析。结果显示:长三角区域环境经济政策整体呈现良好发展态势,尤其在财政奖补方面占绝对优势,但各省市差异较为明显,且区域层面联动政策相对欠缺。在此基础上,结合长三角区域环境质量改善目标及污染防治协作深化需求,建议在环保基金、生态补偿、排污权交易、环境信用体系等领域率先开展区域联动试点,并从机制、法律、技术等层面给予保障,探索形成区域环境经济政策共商、共享、共赢模式。     

Plan integration for resilience scorecard: evaluating networks of plans in six US coastal cities

Planning for hazard mitigation is frequently detached from other planning activities that influence development patterns in hazardous areas. Consistent integration of mitigation reduces hazard vulnerability for people and the built environment. We apply a plan integration for resilience scorecard in six US coastal cities to evaluate the integration of local networks of plans and the degree to which they target areas most vulnerable to flooding hazards. We find that plan integration scores vary widely across the six cities, and that some plans actually increase vulnerability in hazard zones. Policies also frequently support mitigation in areas with low vulnerability, rather than in areas with high vulnerability. The plan integration for resilience scorecard can generate information to improve hazard planning by allowing planners to identify conflicts between plans, assess whether plans target areas that are most vulnerable, and better inform decision makers about opportunities to mainstream mitigation into multiple sectors of planning.     

Social consequences associated with the use of various optimization methods in the protection of air quality

The fundamental tactics employed by the EU against air contamination, which are intended to maintain concentrations at a level that does not exceed the permissible values, usually entail considerable expense. To reduce this to a minimum, the procedure of economic optimization of air quality can be applied. When performed for a heavily polluted industrial city, it shows that it is possible to maintain concentrations below the threshold of air quality standards with relatively moderate expenditure. These evaluations also reveal that variations in population density distribution call into question the conventional wisdom that uniform air quality standards provide the best protection against air contamination for a whole region. On the contrary, an optimization that forces a drop in concentration to be evenly spread over the population, without reference to air quality standards, may lead to more efficient protection of human health and make no difference to overall expenditure.     

Climate change adaptation at different levels of government: Characteristics and conditions of policy change

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent “one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements” that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress.     

Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry

Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.     

The ‘green’ and ‘self’ in green self-governance – a study of 264 green space initiatives by citizens

Scholars observe an increased involvement of citizens in green space governance. This paper focuses on green self-governance, in which citizens play a major role in realizing, protecting and/or managing green space. While existing research on green self-governance focuses mostly on specific cases, we aim to contribute towards a large overview via an inventory of 264 green self-governance practices across The Netherlands. With this, we discuss the relevance of green self-governance for nature conservation and its relationship with authorities. In our analysis, we show that green self-governance practices are very diverse: they pursue a wide variety of physical and social objectives; employ a multitude of physical and political activities; involve different actors besides citizens; mobilize different internal and external funding sources; and are active within and outside of protected areas. While green self-governance can contribute towards protection and management of green space and towards social values, we highlight that this contribution is mostly of a local relevance. Most practices are small scale and objectives do not always match those of authorities. Although we speak of self-governance, authorities play an important role in many practices, for example, as financial donor, landowner or regulatory authority. In this, self-governance is often not completely ‘self’.

Abbreviations: PAA: Policy Arrangement Approach; NNN: National Nature Network; N2000: Natura 2000; NCOs: Nature Conservation Organizations; NGOs: Non-governmental organizations     

Assessment practices in the policy and politics cycles: a contribution to reflexive governance for sustainable development?

ABSTRACT

This article examines systematic assessment practices linked to sustainable development policies. We consider five types of assessment—monitoring, policy evaluation, formal audit, peer review, and specialist reporting—and explore their fate in the policy and electoral politics cycles. In contrast to traditional views of the policy cycle, we note that systematic assessments provide complementary feedback around the entire policy cycle. However, despite this omnipresence, their policy relevance is usually severely limited, inter alia because the policy cycle captures only parts of the political reality. A major concern for politicians (but not necessarily for policy or governance scholars) that goes far beyond the formulation and implementation of policies is the broader cycle of electoral politics that determines the state's political personnel as well as government priorities. Here, we highlight that the findings of systematic assessments are often lost in a cacophony of voices to which politicians are more carefully attuned, such as media responses and opinion polls, implying that scientific evidence is simply ‘overwritten’ with other kinds of evidence representing alternative rationalities and priorities. Despite numerous shortcomings, the true value of systematic assessment practices lies in their potential to furnish ammunition to state and non-state actors interested in securing change.