人力资本积累与地区经济增长的联动关系分析

人力资本积累与地区经济增长差距的关系问题,是国内外理论界关注的焦点之一.为什么中国的地区经济增长在经济转型期20世纪80年代呈现收敛而90年代后发散?人力资本究竟是怎样作用于经济增长的?已有的经验研究没有考虑人力资本积累自身的收敛性,因而没有考虑到人力资本积累与地区经济增长的联立互动关系.本文采用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)估计了中国地区经济增长与人力资本增长的联立模型,结果表明,人力资本积累存在自身收敛性,人力资本增长率与地区经济增长率存在同向变化特征;同时,人力资本水平对地区经济增长存在直接发散和间接收敛双重效应,欠发达地区较高的人力资本增长率是导致20世纪80年代地区经济增长收敛的一个重要因素.因此,加大欠发达地区的人力资本投入,促进人力资本积累,对于缩小地区间经济增长差异具有十分重要的意义.     

中国30个地区环境技术创新能力分类特征

区域环境技术创新能力是决定区域产业发展水平、经济实力增长的关键,是区域可持续竞争优势的源泉.本文通过搜集环境技术创新投入、产出与关联的相关变量和数据;利用Q型聚类方法,提取最具代表性的变量指标;然后对缩减后的变量作因子分析,提取主成分,随之,按照各区域的主成分值进行聚类,确定各区域所属类别,并采用判别分析方法,对各区域所属类别进行检验、调整.结果显示:第一类地区主要包括海南在内的经济发展较为落后、生态环境遭受破坏相对较少的我国西部地区;第二类地区主要集中在技术引进与吸收能力强、区域内企业实力强、人力资本积聚能力强的东部和中部地区;第三类地区主要集中在我国农业产业发展历史悠久,但随着农业向工业快速发展,所遭受的环境破坏也愈发严重的中部地区;第四类地区主要包括辽宁、四川等我国工业制造业最集中和发达的地区;第五类地区则是我国市场经济发展最完善、环保方面的经济活动表现相对较优的东南沿海地区.最后,结合各类别地区环境技术创新的实际状况与原因,针对性地提出对策,为提升各区域环境技术创新能力提供参考.     

区域经济空间分异及其演变分析研究——以浙江省为例

区域经济空间分异是伴随区域经济增长而产生的,是区域经济空间结构研究中的重要内容之一。在理论研究的基础上分析了区域经济空间分异产生的原因是受到区域空间结构的影响,总结了区域经济空间分异的现象表征主要体现在绝对差异、相对差异和经济重心3个方面,并对这3个方面的测度方法进行了研究总结,构建了区域经济空间分异的测度体系。在此基础上,以浙江省作为实证研究对象,以各县域GDP为经济发展水平的衡量指标,综合运用数理统计方法和GIS方法,对1988~2008年浙江省区域经济空间分异的情况做了定量分析。实证研究结果表明浙江省区域经济差距呈现台阶式扩大,主要由富裕地区引起,并且经济重心在不断转移。结果与1988~2008年浙江省的实际发展情况较为吻合,表明该测度分析体系具有一定的科学合理,在未来类似研究中值得继续推广。     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

化工重大危险源区域风险因素的评价与控制

化工事故具有危及社区和环境的特性,评价并有效地控制化工企业区域风险因素是政府安全监管部门的工作重点。针对国家安监总局提出的10项区域风险因素,运用德尔菲法确定了评价因子的权重,提出了区域风险因素评价值的计算模型;以常州市武进区化工企业为例进行了化工企业区域风险因素定量分析,运用休哈特控制图法找出了需要重点监管的企业及其风险因素。     

依据经济水平建立的华中-华南粮食运输模型

从中国土地利用现状出发,根据目前的中国粮食生产、粮食需求关系和地区经济水平差异等因素,建立了粮食调拨运输模型--计划经济型(非市场原理型)和市场原理型(自由购买型)。并将这两种模型分别应用到中国华中-华南地区,讨论了中国华中-华南地区的粮食储备变化特点。模拟结果显示:非市场原理型运输模型中,随着粮食运输强度系数的增大,城市地区的粮食不足现象逐步得到缓解;而粮食产地的粮食储量也将相应减少,粮食分布的区域不平衡不会长期存在。依据市场原理型运输模型,随着粮食吸收系数的增大,粮食储备迅速集中到沿海城市,此后粮食生产地区的粮食储备开始减少,内陆地区会出现大范围的粮食短缺现象。这种粮食分布的区域不平衡现象越来越大。     

基于沿江开发建设的生态安全格局研究——以九江市为例

随着长江沿江开发的不断深入,区域生态安全与开发建设的矛盾也越来越突出。以九江市沿江开发建设活动与区域生态系统空间结构、生态服务功能相互作用为理念,通过遥感、GIS技术手段,划分小流域单元。并将这些单元作为空间分析与评价的基础,选择工业集中区、城镇居民地、路网布局作为自然生态环境的影响因子或施压因子,以河流级别、湖泊数量和面积、地貌类型、坡度、植被覆盖程度、重要生态功能区类别等作为承压因子,综合叠加形成生态环境压力区划。并以此为基础,构建由5个生态源区和9条生态隔离、缓冲、生物多样性保护廊道组成的生态空间安全体系,用以减缓生态环境压力、消纳水气及土壤污染、稳定区域生态、推进沿江开发建设,实现生态保护空间与区域经济社会发展空间的有序融合,并对重要生态功能保护区提出管制的要求与措施。     

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequality, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration. Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provided effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality. This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 （2001 absent）. The result indicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer counties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province. This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional economic analysis.     

Development and Comparison of Multiple Regression Models to Predict Bankfull Channel Dimensions for Use in Hydrologic Models

Channel dimensions are important input variables for many hydrologic models. As measurements of channel geometry are not available in most watersheds, they are often predicted using bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships. This study aims at improving existing equations that relate bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area to drainage area (DA) without limiting their use to well‐gauged watersheds. We included seven additional variables in the equations that can be derived from data that are generally required by hydrologic models anyway and conducted several multiple regression analyses to identify the ideal combination of additional variables for nationwide and regional models for each Physiographic Division of the United States (U.S.). Results indicate that including the additional variables in the regression equations generally improves predictions considerably. The selection of relevant variables varies by Physiographic Division, but average annual precipitation (PCP) and temperature (TMP) were generally found to improve the models the most. Therefore, we recommend using regression equations with three independent variables (DA, PCP, and TMP) to predict bankfull channel dimensions for hydrologic models. Furthermore, we recommend using the regional equations for watersheds within regions from which data were used for model development, whereas in all other parts of the U.S. and the rest of the world, the nationwide equations should be given preference.     

Risk identification and regulatory system design for the carbon market

Currently, the global carbon trading systems are fragmented and belong to different governments or are under the jurisdiction of different regions, resulting in a series of new problems, such as how to link dispersed trading systems, how to compare the emission reduction of various markets and other issues. Since the development of the international carbon market is relatively immature with uncertain life expectancy and volatility during its short history, and there is a lack of quantitative data on the long-term record, the market could provide few risk management tools. Meanwhile, with the launches of China’s regional carbon trading pilots in seven provinces since 2013 and combined with the national voluntary emission trading system, carbon trading will become an important mechanism for China in achieving its emission reduction target. In the first stage, the carbon finance market is at least faced with mechanism design risks, market supply risks and compliance risks. Therefore, to secure the development of the carbon market and for public interest, relevant government departments of China should identify the risks facing the market and should make the basic principles and goals, such as ensuring effective trading and pricing mechanisms to avoid fraud and price manipulation, and balancing transparency and confidentiality of information. Consequently, the governments should develop a comprehensive carbon finance regulatory system covering regulatory legislation, regulatory institutions and their authorities, regulatory scope as well as regulatory objects.