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为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析(HAZOP)、事故树分析(FTA)等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模(HHM)对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。 相似文献
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本文对湿式脱硫除尘一体化设备的结构和性能进行了较为全面的分析,指出了该设备存在的诸多弊病,提出了解决方案--脱硫、除尘分体组合式的思路. 相似文献
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Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge,
as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts
in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps
for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal
city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated
models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
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Zhenxing Zhang Elias Getahun Mengfei Mu Sangeetha Chandrasekaran 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2023,59(3):449-465
Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds. 相似文献
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Toward Adaptive Management: The Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Fish Stocks and Fisheries in a Large Regulated Lake 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We applied the adaptive management approach to analyze the demand and feasibility of adaptive management of fish stocks in a large regulated lake, Oulujärvi, in northern Finland. The process consisted of four phases: (1) analysis of the current state of the fisheries system (fishers, related markets and industry, fisheries researches and authorities, related organizations, etc.); (2) analysis of the objectives of different stakeholders; (3) the composition of alternative management strategies and assessment of their impacts; and (4) recommendations for future management. We used catch statistics from the period 1973–1995 to analyze fish stocks and fishing. Fish species involved were brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), whitefish [Coregonus lavaretus (L.) sl.], vendace (Coregonus albula L.); and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca L.). Questionnaires and interviews were applied to ascertain the opinions of different groups of fishermen. Several models and cost–benefit analysis were used to assess the ecological, economic, and social impacts of three alternative management strategies. The results emphasize that when determining stocking levels and fishing regulations, the system should be considered as a whole, and impacts on major fish species and different groups of fishermen should be assessed. The stocking policy and fishing regulations should also be flexible to accommodate changing biotic and societal conditions. The key questions in applying the adaptive management process in Oulujärvi fisheries are how to determine clear objectives for fisheries management, find a fisheries management structure that provides workable interactions between different stakeholders, and arrange cost-effective monitoring. The lessons learned from the Oulujärvi experience and recommendations for fisheries management are relevant to other lakes with conflicting objectives of different stakeholders. 相似文献
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突发事件情景演化及关键要素提取方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对突发事件应急处置难度大的特点,突发事件应急管理模式必须向"情景-应对"转变。从系统复杂性、开放式预先设想以及序贯性三个主要原则的角度理解突发事件情景演化的机理,构建了突发事件情景演化系统模型,并以此为基础设计了突发事件情景网络关键要素的提取方法。该方法以危险源形成、突发事件演化以及应急响应三方面主要内容为情景网络的主体,以三方面主要内容所涉及的影响因素为分支,适当的选取情景网络关键要素并将关键要素分为四类。该方法的提出弥补了情景网络关键要素提取方法理论的空白,为突发事件情景构建提供了理论支持。 相似文献