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经历了十几年的讨论,燃油税改革方案终于在2009年出台并实施,改革后燃油税究竟会对我国宏观经济及各部门产生怎样的影响,倍受关注.基于此背景,采用环境CGE模型对改革前后的两种不同燃油税税率进行了量化分析,总体研究得出:从长期发展来看,燃油税改革有利于我国经济结构调整,减少能源消耗和降低碳排放;短期内会增加企业生产成本,抑制宏观经济增长,其中交通运输业和石油加工业受到的冲击最大,应引起有关部门重视. 相似文献
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Abstract: Theory proposes that increased environmental stochasticity negatively impacts population viability. Thus, in addition to the directional changes predicted for weather parameters under global climate change (GCC), the increase in variance of these parameters may also have a negative effect on biodiversity. As a case study, we assessed the impact of interannual variance in precipitation on the viability of an Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) population reintroduced in Makhtesh Ramon Nature Reserve, Israel. We monitored the population from 1985 to 1999 to determine what environmental factors affect reproductive success. Annual precipitation during the year before conception, drought conditions during gestation, and population size determined reproductive success. We used the parameters derived from this model to assess population performance under various scenarios in a Leslie matrix type model with demographic and environmental stochasticity. Specifically, we used a change in the precipitation regime in our study area to formulate a GCC scenario and compared the simulated dynamics of the population with a no-change scenario. The coefficient of variation in population size under the global change scenario was 30% higher than under the no-change scenario. Minor die-offs (≥15%) following droughts increased extinction probability nearly 10-fold. Our results support the idea that an increase in environmental stochasticity due to GCC may, in itself, pose a significant threat to biodiversity. 相似文献
327.
Mechanisms of changes in the numbers of red deer in the Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve (the northwestern Caucasus) were studied from 1958 to 2004 using simulation models developed on the basis of concepts concerning the combined effect of density-dependent and density-independent factors. The results show that changes in population numbers are accounted for by larger (more numerous) local subunits, with small groups remaining relatively stable. In the periods of depression, such a mechanism provides for the maintenance of the spatial population structure. 相似文献
328.
Sequence functions were used to construct a simulation model of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole in Karelia. The mechanisms of population reproduction control affect the population size if it is greater than 1 and 4 ind./100 trap-days in spring and autumn, respectively. 相似文献
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Persistence and mobility of 2,4-D in unsaturated soil zone under winter wheat crop in sub-tropical region of India 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Manika GuptaN.K. Garg Himanshu JoshiM.P. Sharma 《Agriculture, ecosystems & environment》2012,146(1):60-72
The present study was undertaken to determine the persistence and mobility of 2,4-dichlorophenoxy acetic acid (2,4-D) in unsaturated soil zone under real field conditions for the wheat crop in Roorkee, India. Three experimental plots were chosen in the agricultural field itself to represent the real field conditions in the study area and the potential movement and persistence of herbicide 2,4-D was investigated under three different irrigation treatments. The presence of herbicide along with soil water content was determined in soil at different depths at a temporal scale. The movement of the herbicide was also simulated numerically by solving the coupled soil water content movement and mass transport equations using HYDRUS-1D. The measured soil water content trends and the 2,4-D concentration profiles showed a good agreement with the numerically simulated results. The maximum effect of the herbicide was primarily retained up to 15 cm of the soil profile. The current existing dosage of 0.5 kg ha−1 of pesticide was found to be safe to avoid soil contamination as no residue of 2,4-D was traced at the end of the wheat crop season in any of the plots. Higher concentrations of 2,4-D were also simulated numerically and the simulated results showed that the safe dosage of pesticide application would depend on irrigation treatments. 相似文献
330.
基于拉格朗日油粒子模型、溢油风化模型以及三维水动力、泥沙和吸附质模型构建了溢油双层数学模型.模型不仅能够模拟油膜的运动轨迹、岸边吸附与冲刷、油品性质变化过程,而且通过耦合泥沙吸附及沉积动力学过程,能够更加客观地模拟溢油从水体向底泥环境的迁移过程,更全面地反映溢油在环境中的归宿.此外,本文以假设溢油事故为背景,模拟和分析了洪、枯季节条件下珠江广州段溢油事故对河网陆地边界、河网水质及底泥环境的影响. 相似文献