Simulation and analysis of outbreaks of bark beetle infestations and their management at the stand level

Outbreaks of bark beetles in forests can result in substantial economic losses. Understanding the factors that influence the development and spread of bark beetle outbreaks is crucial for forest management and for predicting outbreak risks, especially with the expected global warming. Although much research has been done on the ecology and phenology of bark beetles, the complex interplay between beetles, host trees, beetle antagonists and forest management makes predicting beetle population development especially difficult. Using the recent infestations of the European Spruce Bark Beetle (Ips typographus L. Col. Scol.) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany) as a case study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based simulation model (SAMBIA) that takes into account individual trees and beetles. This model primarily provides a tool for analysing and understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of bark beetles outbreaks at the stand scale. Furthermore, the model should allow an estimation of the effectiveness of concurrent impacts of both antagonists and management to confine outbreak dynamics in practice. We also used the model to predict outbreak probabilities in various settings. The simulation results indicated a distinct threshold behaviour of the system in response to pressure by antagonists or management of the bark beetle population. Despite the different scenarios considered, we were able to extract from the simulations a simple rule of thumb for the successful control of an outbreak: if roughly 80% of individual beetles are killed by antagonists or foresters, outbreaks will rarely take place. Our model allows the core dynamics of this complex system to be reduced to this inherent common denominator.     

水力割缝增透抽采煤层瓦斯原理及应用

煤层瓦斯抽采是避免煤矿瓦斯灾害发生的根本防治措施,水力割缝技术使煤体在割缝后应力松弛、卸压、破坏、破裂,以成倍或者十几倍地提高煤层的渗透性,继而对煤层瓦斯进行抽采,使瓦斯煤层变为低瓦斯或无瓦斯煤层,从根本上避免瓦斯灾害发生。从水力割缝技术切割煤层致煤层应力变化角度,将理论分析和数值模拟方法相结合,根据渗流力学平面径向流理论,分析给出水力割缝技术增透抽采瓦斯原理。以兖州东滩矿3号煤层为例,分析采用水力割缝技术前后煤层应力变化、渗透率变化规律。结果表明:大面积割缝后,应力重新分布,由均匀状态转变为非均匀状态分布,水平缝使煤层卸压,煤层应力普遍降低,在缝上部煤层局部形成拉应力区。割缝后渗透率是割缝前的4.34倍,渗透率大幅度增加,从而提高瓦斯抽采速度和最终抽采率。     

充填体与岩体能量和强度匹配的分析及应用

矿山嗣后充填法中,采用经验类比法判定胶结充填体的强度存在诸多问题。利用新的方法来分析充填体与岩体的匹配是必要的。对某铜矿灰砂比为1∶6、1∶8、1∶10和1∶12的4种尾砂胶结充填体进行力学试验和匹配分析。首先利用损伤力学方法建立充填体破坏前本构方程,根据岩体开挖释放能量与充填体蓄积应变能相近的原则,来判定岩体与充填体的匹配;然后运用GTS/MI-DAS有限元软件模拟开采-充填过程,根据应力变化与充填体极限强度的大小关系判定两者的匹配。2种方法所得到的结论一致。分析结果表明,该矿山宜采用充填配比不小于1∶10的尾砂胶结充填体。     

车人碰撞事故再现技术研究进展

车人碰撞事故再现已成为国内外研究热点,提高结果可信性为事故再现的核心。根据事故再现所需痕迹将再现方法分为6类,即"行人抛距"、"车辆制动距离"、"行人损伤"、"车辆变形"、"其他"以及"仿真"。通过分析各类方法的优缺点,提出可综合利用这些方法获得客观、可信的事故再现结果。然后探讨提高车人碰撞事故再现结果可信性的新发展方向:开发国产、高精度的事故再现软件,研究事故再现结果的不确定性问题,以及研究痕迹间关系在事故再现中的应用。而其中仿真所得事故再现结果的不确定性问题、车人碰撞事故再现区间不确定优化方法以及事故现场痕迹间关系为值得期待的新研究内容。     

化工园区泄漏事故安全风险评估模式研究

为减少化工事故频发造成严重人员伤亡及财产损失,在分析危化品泄漏事故类型的基础上,从事故发生概率和事故后果两方面提出危化品泄漏事故风险评估模型.以中毒事故为例,对重庆长寿化工园区内某企业一液氨储罐进行风险评估.基于概率模型计算中毒事故概率,结果表明该储罐发生泄漏引起中毒的概率较小;数值模拟结果显示:影响范围随时间的增加而...     

Numerical and experimental study of the explosions caused by residual pressure in quick actuating vessels

The explosion accident caused by residual pressure is one of the most common kinds of accidents in quick actuating pressure vessels. And it is important to provide some reliable methods, which can give reasonable analysis of the explosion. In this study, experiments of the explosion are preformed by using two quick actuating pressure vessels with residual pressure, and a new mathematical model is presented. The model is based on the combination of the Spalart-Allmaras turbulence fluid model and Newton’s second Law for the solid motion. And the model is solved with local remeshing method. By performing the simulation with the same parameters of experiments, the results of the simulation confirm the accuracy of the model. And the results shows the crucial factor of vessel structure, which the maximum ejected speed of the lid highly depends on. Based on that, the optimal design of the structure is presented, which can provide better security.     

油罐喷射火燃烧模拟

针对由一定压力的单相或两相介质泄漏或压力泄放系统排放引起的喷射火,利用gambit生成计算区域网格,得到相应的计算模型.再利用Fluent软件中的离散相模型计算气体流动,采用Realizable k-epsilon湍流模型和部分预混燃烧模型来预测燃料的燃烧,模拟了戊烷燃料燃烧和湍动多相流场,给出了燃烧速度矢量、温度和组...     

基于CFD对袋式除尘器流场的分析

采用计算流体力学(CFD)软件对袋式除尘器单元气流组织进行数值模拟分析,给出了 沿滤袋高度方向过滤风速的分布,以及袋间隙气流抬升速度在不同高度上的分布特征,为袋式除尘器的改进和设计提供理论依据.     

顶板瓦斯高抽巷合理抽放负压数值模拟研究

顶板瓦斯高抽巷的抽采效果与抽放负压直接相关.结合阳煤三矿K8206大采长综放 面顶板瓦斯高抽巷实际抽采效果,通过数值模拟与现场实测数据分析,得出顶板瓦斯高抽巷 抽采正常期最优抽放负压,以期对高瓦斯矿区顶板瓦斯高抽巷的合理抽放参数确定提供科学依据,实现矿井的煤与瓦斯安全高效共采.     

急倾斜煤层石门揭煤突出机理数值模拟研究

与其他类型的突出相比,石门揭煤的突出危险性最为严重,对它的突出机理进行研究有助于提高防突工作水平。根据马家沟矿石门揭煤突出后遗留的孔洞形状,采用数值模拟软件对突出过程进行反演分析;再现了马家沟矿石门揭煤突出发生的地质条件及发展过程。结果显示,急倾斜煤层石门揭煤突出过程中,煤体自重应力的作用比较明显;突出发生后,地应力梯度和瓦斯压力梯度均下降,卸压区宽度增大。因此,对于急倾斜煤层石门揭煤,一方面,要采取瓦斯抽放等措施,降低工作面前方煤体的应力和瓦斯压力;另一方面,要采用金属骨架对其上方煤体进行支护,防止该煤体垮落诱导突出。