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291.
Pablo Jose Negret Moreno Di Marco Laura J. Sonter Jonathan Rhodes Hugh P. Possingham Martine Maron 《Conservation biology》2020,34(6):1452-1462
Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance. 相似文献
292.
The feasibility of using a chemical reaction-based approach for evaluating and modelling the role of adsorption reactions in determining the geochernical confinement capacity of natural geological barriers is being studied as part of an on-going R & D programme. The confined superficial aquifer underlying the Centre de Stockage de l'Aube facility, a geological barrier for this site, has been used as a case study with the following aims. First, development of a site characterisation protocol and demonstration of its use to determine the principal geochemical characteristics of aquifer materials using batch experiments and to represent the information obtained in terms of a chemical model. The experimental results obtained for Ni2+ partitioning as a function of total Ni, pH, total Ca and total solid can be satisfactorily represented in terms of reactions with an ion exchange site and a single amphoteric surface hydroxyl site with ferrihydrite reaction constants. A second objective is the incorporation of the reactions in a coupled geochemistry/transport code, and to verify the applicability of the coupled code predictions for Ni2+ mass transfer by comparison with the results obtained during column tracer experiments. The breakthrough curve and equilibrium solid phase Ni loading, predicted by a one-dimensional coupled model for a column tracer experiment, agree closely with observed data.Additional studies are underway to reduce model conditionality, to extend the adsorption model to other analogue cations and anions, to incorporate the effect of natural organic matter and to take into consideration precipitation/dissolution of amorphous Fe surface phases. 相似文献
293.
K. N. Irvine A. J. Eberhardt 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1992,28(2):385-396
ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)12. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy. 相似文献
294.
295.
P. Steven Porter Robert C. Ward 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1991,27(4):687-700
ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe. 相似文献
296.
Classic island biogeographic theory predicts that equilibrium will be reached when immigration and extinction rates are equal.
These rates are modified by number of species in source area, number of intermediate islands, distance to recipient island,
and size of intermediate islands. This general model has been variously modified and proposed to be a stochastic process with
minimal competitive interaction or heavily deterministic. Predictive models of recovery (regardless of the end point chosen)
have been based on the appropriateness of the MacArthur-Wilson models.
Because disturbance frequency, severity, and intensity vary in their effect on community dynamics, we propose that disturbance
levels should first be defined before evaluating the applicability of island biogeographical theory. Thus, we suggest a classification
system of four disturbance levels based on recovery patterns by primary and secondary succession and faunal organization by
primary (invasion of vacant areas) and secondary (remnant of previous community remains) processes.
Level 1A disturbances completely destroy communities with no upstream or downstream sources of colonizers, while some component
of near surface interstitial or hyporheic flora and fauna survive level 1B disturbances. Recovery has been reported to take
from five years to longer than 25 years, when most invading colonists do not have an aerial form.
Level 2 disturbances destroy the communities but leave upstream and downstream colonization sources (level 2A) and, sometimes,
a hyporheic pool of colonizers (level 2B). Recovery studies have indicated primary succession and faunal structuring patterns
(2A) with recovery times of 90–400 days or secondary succession and faunal structuring patterns (2B) with recovery times of
40–250 days.
Level 3 disturbances result in reduction in species abundance and diversity along a stream reach; level 4 disturbances result
in reduction of abundance and diversity in discrete patches. Both disturbance types lead to secondary succession and secondary
faunal organization. Recovery rates can be quite rapid, varying from less than 10 days to 100 or more days.
We suggest that island biogeographical models seem appropriate to recovery by secondary processes after level 3 and 4 disturbances,
where competition may be an important organizing factor, while models of numerical abundance and resource tracking are probably
of better use where community development is by primary succession (levels 1 and 2).
Development of predictive recovery models requires research that addresses a number of fundamental questions. These include
the role of hydrologic patterns on colonization dynamics, the role of nonaerial colonizers in recovery from level 1 disturbances,
and assessment of the impact of changes in the order of invasion by colonizers of varying energetic efficiencies. Finally,
we must be able to assemble these data and determine whether information that guides community organization at one level of
disturbance can provide insights into colonization dynamics at other levels. 相似文献
297.
Linda A. Joyce Curtis H. Flather Patricia A. Flebbe Thomas W. Hoekstra Stan J. Ursic 《Environmental management》1990,14(4):489-500
The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker
colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States.
The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with newly
developed models for forage, wildlife, fish, and water. Resource production was integrated through a commonly defined land
base that could be geographically partitioned according to individual resource needs. Resources were responsive to changes
in land use, particularly human-related, and timber management, particularly the harvest of older stands, and the conversion
to planted pine. 相似文献
298.
In this paper, the role played by habitat diversity in the landscape on species richness and on the stability of farmland bird communities was investigated. Species richness was estimated on 374 samples monitored in farmland by the French breeding bird survey during the 2001–2005 period. A capture–recapture approach was used to estimate species richness accounting for the variation in detection probability among species of the 100 most common species detected in farmland. Landscape structure and composition were measured both in farmland and in adjacent habitats. The independent effect of each variable on community richness and stability was further assessed using hierarchical variance partitioning and taking spatial autocorrelation into account. A strong matrix effect was detected: non-cropped land deeply influenced richness and stability of bird assemblages. 相似文献
299.
300.
对以天然气、食盐为原料生产基础化工产品的综合性化工企业的职工调查显示,恶性肿瘤已成为该企业职工死亡的主要原因之一,总死亡率为1.44‰,与当地对照有显著性,尤以肺癌、肝癌、食道癌为主.动态观察显示,职工恶性肿瘤死亡率从1971~的0.41‰上升为1996~的1.93‰,总体呈现逐年上升的趋势.1991~以来的男、女职工死亡性比率为1.90∶1,两者差异非常显著,目前3位死因都有统计学意义.这说明恶性肿瘤对该企业职工,特别是男性职工的生命健康威胁越来越大,应成为今后卫生工作的重点之一. 相似文献