Impact of pregnancy and other factors including smoking on the urinary levels of triclosan

Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to evaluate the impact of pregnancy on the levels of triclosan (TCS) in urine. Regression models were fitted to evaluate this association with adjustment for other factors that may affect the levels of TCS. Pregnant females had higher levels of TCS than non-pregnant females but the differences were not statistically significant. Levels of TCS were statistically significantly lower during the second trimester than during the third trimester. Smoking was associated with statistically significantly lower levels of TCS. The reasons for the association between smoking and the levels of TCS are not known. Further research is needed in this area.     

驾驶行为模型的研究进展

驾驶员行为模型的研究对于预测和干预驾驶员的风险行为、设计相关的道路安全设施与车内设备,以及制定交通法律法规等具有重要的意义。为了解和掌握学术界关于驾驶行为模型的研究进展,搜集、筛选和归纳了1960—2010年被SCI数据库索引的相关文章,将驾驶行为模型分类为描述性模型、信息处理模型、动机模型、计划行为理论(TPB)和躯体标识假设,并对每种模型进行评述和总结,理清这些模型间的内在联系。研究发现,现有各模型只是从某个角度研究驾驶员行为的部分特征,而不能解释驾驶员的全部行为。今后应不断完善和整合各类模型,并借鉴心理学、生理学和行为科学等相关领域的理论、知识,使驾驶行为模型变得更为实用、有效。     

电网基建施工企业事故统计分析及防范对策

某电力工程施工总承包一级资质、综合性大型国有电网基建施工企业,以施工导致人员重伤和死亡的事故资料和数据为基础,运用科学数理统计的原理和方法,着重对事故类型、事故原因以及伤亡人员用工形式等方面特征进行分析,找出事故发生的规律,揭示该企业的安全管理状况。并根据统计分析结果,提出在预防人身安全事故方面需要加强的管理对策和建议,为进一步加强安全管理,防止事故重复发生起到指导作用。     

氯胺消毒管网“三氮”与总氯变化的预测模型

为探讨氯胺消毒供水管网的水质问题,建立了一种试验规模的氯胺消毒供水管网水质模拟系统。基于质量守恒原理和双Monod方程建立了该系统的硝化与氯胺衰减动力学耦合模型,并通过试验对该模型进行了验证。模型中的部分参数采用非线性多项式回归方法进行估计。应用该模型确定了活性氨氧化菌(AOB)和亚硝酸盐氧化菌(NOB)的数量。该模型对管网模拟系统内氨氮、硝酸盐氮与总氯的预测值与实测值基本一致,但对亚硝酸盐氮的预测值与实测值存在较大偏差。     

Models predicting the fate of pollutants in rivers

The spill of 2,4,‐D in the Rhine river was used to show the evolution from simple to sophisticated models. The first simulation was done with an analytical solution of the dispersion‐advection equation without elimination. Elimination was introduced in a second simulation. The third simulation was carried out with a numerical model. This included elimination and variable dispersion. The lack of data limited the use of very detailed models.     

Wildfire smoke and health impacts: A closer look at fire attributes and their marginal effects

Existing studies on the economic impact of wildfire smoke have focused on single fire events or entire seasons without considering the marginal effect of daily fire progression on downwind communities. Neither approach allows for an examination of the impact of even the most basic fire attributes, such as distance and fuel type, on air quality and health outcomes. Improved knowledge of these effects can provide important guidance for efficient wildfire management strategies. This study aims to bridge this gap using detailed information on 24 large-scale wildfires that sent smoke plumes to the Reno/Sparks area of Northern Nevada over a 4-year period. We relate the daily acreage burned by these fires to daily data on air pollutants and local hospital admissions. Using information on medical expenses, we compute the per-acre health cost of wildfires of different attributes. We find that patient counts can be causally linked to fires as far as 200–300 miles from the impact area. As expected, the marginal impact per acre burned generally diminishes with distance and for fires with lighter fuel loads. Our results also highlight the importance of allowing for temporal lags between fire occurrence and pollutant levels.     

Sorption of cadmium(II) and copper(II) by soil humic acids: temperature effects and sorption heterogeneity

Sorption by humic acids is known to modify the bioavailability and toxicity of metals in soils and aquatic systems. The sorption of cadmium(II) and copper(II) to two soil humic acids was measured at pH 6.0 using ion-selective electrode potentiometric titration at different temperatures. Sorption reactions were studied with all components in aqueous solution, or with the humates in suspension. Adsorption reactions were described using a multiple site-binding model, and a model assuming a continuous log-normal distribution of adsorption constants. Adsorption of Cu²⁺ was more favourable than adsorption of Cd²⁺. The log-normal distribution model provided the closest fit to observations and allowed parameterisation of adsorption data using a mean adsorption constant (log K _μ). Sorption of Cd²⁺ to dissolved humic acids increased slightly in extent and sorption affinity with increasing temperature, but the effect was small (log K _μ 2.96–3.15). A slightly greater temperature effect occurred for sorption of Cd²⁺ to solid-phase humic acids (log K _μ 1.30–2.08). Sorption of copper(II) to both aqueous- and colloidal-phase humates showed more pronounced temperature dependence, with extent of sorption, and sorption affinity, increasing with increasing temperature (log K _μ 3.4–4.9 in solution and 1.4–4.5 in suspension). The weaker adsorption of Cd²⁺ than Cu²⁺, and smaller temperature effects for dissolved humates than suspended humates, suggested that the observed temperature effects had a kinetic, rather than thermodynamic, origin. For any metal-to-ligand ratio, free metal ion concentration, and by inference metal bioavailability, decreased with increasing temperature. The consistency of the data with kinetic rather than thermodynamic control of metal bioavailability suggests that equilibrium modelling approaches to estimating bioavailability may be insufficient.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

CNG加气站危险性分析及事故预防措施研究

本文首先研究提出了国内外CNG加气站的一般组成结构,即调压计量系统、净化干燥系统、气体压缩系统、压缩天然气储存系统、控制系统和售气系统6个子系统;接着对近几年发生的加气站事故进行统计与分析,指出了加气站易发生事故的关键部位一售气系统、高压储气系统和CNG压缩系统;然后对CNG加气站的常见危险有害因素进行了辨识与分析,即高压、易燃易爆、易泄漏、点火源众多等;最后根据辨识结果,研究提出了建设安全监控预警与事故应急综合管理系统等具体事故预防措施。     

事故预测数学模型的研究与实践

依据收集统计的、真实可靠的事故数据,运用数学方法及建立的多种事故预测模型,在工作中理论与实际相结合,提出并建立了事故预测数学模型,给出具体方法与步骤,以及应用中应遵循的原则和规律,从而做到对将来发生的事故未卜先知,用以指导安全生产活动,预防事故发生。同时,根据我国近18年来各类事故死亡人员的数据建立事故预测数学模型,并运用确立的最佳事故预测数学模型而预测出的事故数据,探讨我国伤亡事故发生的趋势。