地震损失经济学评估模型灾损参数的统计研究

地震应急管理有助于震后救灾工作的顺利进行。传统的灾损评估需要有关人员进入现场根据地震破坏情况进行评估,这会影响评估的时效性。通过对地震灾损参数进行统计学研究,利用现有的研究成果,以统计指数、数据包络分析为理论基础,将现有的基于不同房屋结构类型、不同破坏等级的震害矩阵进行降维,确定了灾损参数,并以青海玉树地震为例,运用灾损参数实现了灾损的快速评估。     

2015年1-2月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年1-2月国内发生的各种生产安全事故122起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在122起事故中,交通事故占74.59％,矿业事故占2.46％,爆炸事故占3.28％,火灾占2.46％,毒物泄漏与中毒占5.74％,其他事故占10.66％.122起事故共死亡463人,伤113人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故76.46％,矿业事故2.81％,爆炸事故3.89％,火灾3.24％,毒物泄漏与中毒4.54％,其他事故9.07％;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故68.14％,矿业事故6.19％,爆炸事故4.42％,火灾0,毒物泄漏与中毒10.62％,其他事故10.62％.2015年1-2月生产安全事故发生较多的5个省、自治区分别为黑龙江(12起)、广西(12起)、云南(10起)、湖南(10起)、广东(10起);死亡人数较多的5个省、自治区分别为云南(44人)、湖南(43人)、黑龙江(42人)、广西(42人)、安徽(36人);受伤人数较多的5个省、直辖市分别为湖南(18人)、安徽(17人)、云南(16人)、重庆(10人)、辽宁(9人).     

Disentangling technological innovations: a micro-econometric analysis of their determinants

On the basis of a unique firm-level dataset from the German manufacturing sector, this paper empirically examines the determinants of environmental and non-environmental product and process innovations. The micro-econometric analysis with multivariate probit models points to an extremely high relevance of R&D activities for all technological innovation types, as well as to the relevance of a few market pull factors. The estimation results additionally reveal the importance of organisational measures for environmental product and process innovations. In this regard, not only certified environmental management systems, but also specific process- and product-related environmental organisational measures and even general organisational measures, such as the certification of a quality management system according to ISO 9001, play a crucial role. The estimation results therefore suggest the encouragement of firm-internal R&D activities and organisational measures by (environmental) policy in order to stimulate environmental technological innovations, which are able to both limit the environmental burden and contribute to the technological modernisation of the economy.     

Impact of pregnancy and other factors including smoking on the urinary levels of triclosan

Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to evaluate the impact of pregnancy on the levels of triclosan (TCS) in urine. Regression models were fitted to evaluate this association with adjustment for other factors that may affect the levels of TCS. Pregnant females had higher levels of TCS than non-pregnant females but the differences were not statistically significant. Levels of TCS were statistically significantly lower during the second trimester than during the third trimester. Smoking was associated with statistically significantly lower levels of TCS. The reasons for the association between smoking and the levels of TCS are not known. Further research is needed in this area.     

苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与苯胺类化合物联合毒性效益

采用藻类生长抑制实验测定了苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与6种苯胺衍生物对斜生栅列藻的单一毒性和二元混合物的联合毒性,得到化合物单独存在时的半抑制浓度EC50和共存时的半抑制浓度EC50mix。采用毒性单位法、相加指数法、混合毒性指数法和相似性参数法进行联合毒性评价,结果表明：苯酚＋2,4-二氯胺、苯酚＋二苯胺及苯酚＋苯胺等毒性混合时主要表现为协同作用;而其它二元混合物采用不同方法评价联合毒性结果有差异。当苯酚与苯胺按照不同毒性配比混合时（1︰4,4︰1,1︰1,2︰1）,表现为协同作用。以辛醇/水分配系数法为结构描述符,分别建立了单一毒性和联合毒性的定量构效关系（QSAR）模型。结果表明,苯酚、2,4-二氯酚与苯胺类化合物对斜生栅列藻的毒性主要与化合物在生物体内的分配作用有关。     

基于多元统计分析的浅层地下水受人为活动影响表征性指标筛选

本文利用描述性统计分析、主成分分析和聚类分析,研究了马鞍山地区浅层地下水中19种水化学指标数据的离散性、指标间的相关性。结果表明:TDS、Fe、Mn、F-、NO-2可作为该地区人为活动对地下水影响的表征指标。对上述五种指标的综合分析显示,马鞍山地区地下水受人为活动的影响程度可分为三个区:西北区以马鞍山主城区及郊区为代表,主城区地下水受人为活动的影响程度大,郊区地下水受人为活动的影响程度较大;东南区地下水受人为活动影响程度中等;西南区及丹阳、新市镇和薛津镇一带地下水受到人为活动影响程度小。     

火灾中人员的行为及其模拟计算方法的研究

在综合分析国内外人员疏散模型和模拟软件发展现状的基础上,研究人员在火灾中的行为理论、计算机模型、模拟原理等,并介绍了目前国际上研究人员行为方面综合功能较强的Building EXODUS软件的原理和特点,最后以具体实例说明了Building EXODUS软件在人群疏散模拟分析中的具体应用.研究表明,1)在不考虑其他因素的影响下,疏散总时间与人数成正比;2)在火灾等紧急情况下,当某个出口不能通行时,可能会使大量人员在另一个出口处造成"瓶颈"现象,因此,增加备用安全出口很重要;3)疏散时间实际上是一随机变量,会因各种情况的变化而不同,如在很大程度上受人员特性(如年龄等因素)的影响,传统计算方法一般会低估疏散时间而不能作为建筑疏散设计的依据;4)利用计算机模拟软件可以对火灾中各种可能发生的情况进行评价,评价结果比传统方法更科学、可信.火灾中人员行为的研究需要从心理学和社会学角度建立人群中个人行为与社会行为的理论框架,而疏散模拟是一个由多个因素组成的复杂系统,大量人群环境的模拟需要涉及人与人、人与环境间的相互作用.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

The impact of European Regional Development Fund on separate waste collection: Evidence from Italian regions

We analyze the impact of Regulation (EC) No 1080/2006 on separate collection rate of Italian regions. We exploit longitudinal data for 20 NUTS-2 Italian regions and eighteen years (from 1996 to 2013). We identify regions which are exposed to “Convergence” objective as the treatment group and regions which are not exposed to this objective as the control group and use a Difference in differences estimation. The estimates suggest that the Regulation (EC) No 1080/2006 has not influenced the convergence process among the Italian regions. The main policy implications are discussed.     

Local survival of pied flycatcher males and females in a pollution gradient of a Cu smelter

Survival is one of the most central population measures when the effects of the pollution are studied in natural bird populations. However, only few studies have actually measured rigorous survival estimates on adult birds. In recent years there has been a methodological advance in survival analyses by mark-recapture models. We modelled local survival (including mortality and emigration) with the program MARK in a population of a small insectivorous passerine bird, the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca), around a point source of heavy metals. The local survival of females in the polluted area was about 50% lower than in the other areas. Males, however, survived relatively well in the heavily polluted area, but showed somewhat lower survival in the moderately polluted area. Different pollution effects between two sexes might be due to pollution-related differences in reproductive effort in females and males, and/or more intensive uptake of heavy metals by laying females.