FLOOD CONTROL STORAGE ALLOCATIONS BY LINEAR PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT. The setting of rule curves for reservoirs or lakes operation requires balancing the flood control storages reserved against the storage requirements for various conservation uses. In this study, a linear programming model is developed to perform single purpose analysis that minimizes flood damages of a multi-lake river system under various initial and input conditions. A flood control utility measure function is arrived from the resulting analysis, and the inclusion of the function in conservation analysis could provide the total functional analysis. The river-system transition function involving time-lags of short duration is described. The function constitutes the basis for the optimization model, and also provides the transformation to reduce significantly the size of the problem. The application to a critical subsystem in the Oswego River System is reported.     

Land Management in the American Southwest: A State-and-Transition Approach to Ecosystem Complexity

State-and-transition models are increasingly being used to guide rangeland management. These models provide a relatively simple, management-oriented way to classify land condition (state) and to describe the factors that might cause a shift to another state (a transition). There are many formulations of state-and-transition models in the literature. The version we endorse does not adhere to any particular generalities about ecosystem dynamics, but it includes consideration of several kinds of dynamics and management response to them. In contrast to previous uses of state-and-transition models, we propose that models can, at present, be most effectively used to specify and qualitatively compare the relative benefits and potential risks of different management actions (e.g., fire and grazing) and other factors (e.g., invasive species and climate change) on specified areas of land. High spatial and temporal variability and complex interactions preclude the meaningful use of general quantitative models. Forecasts can be made on a case-by-case basis by interpreting qualitative and quantitative indicators, historical data, and spatially structured monitoring data based on conceptual models. We illustrate how science- based conceptual models are created using several rangeland examples that vary in complexity. In doing so, we illustrate the implications of designating plant communities and states in models, accounting for varying scales of pattern in vegetation and soils, interpreting the presence of plant communities on different soils and dealing with our uncertainty about how those communities were assembled and how they will change in the future. We conclude with observations about how models have helped to improve management decision-making.     

九华山国内客源市场空间结构与出游行为研究

在实地调查的基础上，分析了九华山国内客源市场空间结构及其演变特征，得出国内客源市场集中程度降低、客源吸引力不断增强、波浪式推进的演变结论，并探讨了九华山旅游行为空间模式主要以单一目的地旅游模式和区域旅游模式为主，根据旅游意向调查结果显示，九华山与黄山在客源市场方面具有较强的互补性。     

Mental models of safety: do managers and employees see eye to eye?

PROBLEM: Disagreements between managers and employees about the causes of accidents and unsafe work behaviors can lead to serious workplace conflicts and distract organizations from the important work of establishing positive safety climate and reducing the incidence of accidents. METHOD AND RESULTS: In this study, the authors examine a model for predicting safe work behaviors and establish the model's consistency across managers and employees in a steel plant setting. Using the model previously described by Brown, Willis, and Prussia (2000), the authors found that when variables influencing safety are considered within a framework of safe work behaviors, managers and employees share a similar mental model. The study then contrasts employees' and managers' specific attributional perceptions. Findings from these more fine-grained analyses suggest the two groups differ in several respects about individual constructs. Most notable were contrasts in attributions based on their perceptions of safety climate. When perceived climate is poor, managers believe employees are responsible and employees believe managers are responsible for workplace safety. However, as perceived safety climate improves, managers and employees converge in their perceptions of who is responsible for safety. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: It can be concluded from this study that in a highly interdependent work environment, such as a steel mill, where high system reliability is essential and members possess substantial experience working together, managers and employees will share general mental models about the factors that contribute to unsafe behaviors, and, ultimately, to workplace accidents. It is possible that organizations not as tightly coupled as steel mills can use such organizations as benchmarks, seeking ways to create a shared understanding of factors that contribute to a safe work environment. Part of this improvement effort should focus on advancing organizational safety climate. As climate improves, managers and employees are likely to agree more about the causes of safe/unsafe behaviors and workplace accidents, ultimately increasing their ability to work in unison to prevent accidents and to respond appropriately when they do occur. Finally, the survey items included in this study may be useful to organizations wishing to conduct self-assessments.     

Model-Based Assessment of Aspen Responses to Elk Herbivory in Rocky Mountain National Park,USA

In Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP), aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) has been observed to be declining on elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) winter range for many decades. To support elk management decisions, the SAVANNA ecosystem model was adapted to explore interactions between elk herbivory and aspen dynamics. The simulated probability of successful vegetative regeneration for senescent aspen stands declines sharply when elk densities reach levels of 3–5 elk/km², depending on model assumptions for the seasonal duration of elk foraging activities. For aspen stands with a substantial component of younger trees, the simulated regeneration probability declines more continuously with increasing elk density, dropping below 50% from densities at 8–14 elk/km².At the landscape scale, simulated aspen regeneration probability under a scenario of extensive seasonal use was little affected by elk population level, when this level was above 300–600 elk (25%–50% current population) over the ca. 107 km² winter range. This was because elk distribution was highly aggregated, so that a high density of elk occupied certain areas, even at low population levels overall. At approximately current elk population levels (1000–1200 elk), only 35%–45% of senescent aspen stands are simulated as having at least a 90% probability of regeneration, nearly all of them located on the periphery of the winter range. Successful management for aspen persistence on core winter range will likely require some combination of elk population reduction, management of elk distribution, and fencing to protect aspen suckers from elk browsing.     

前兆异常与地震相关性研究—— 一个值得广大地震学者重视的问题

简要介绍了前兆异常与地震相关性定量分析方法,并列举了在进行这方面研究中目前存在的薄弱环节和困难,以期引起广大地震分析预报人员的重视。     

Conceptual Design of a System for Selecting Appropriate Groundwater Models in Groundwater Protection Programs

/ An effective groundwater protection program requires understanding of water flow and contaminant transport processes in the subsurface. Although many mathematical models have been developed to simulate the processes, few actually are used in groundwater protection programs due to the difficulties in data collection, model selection, and model implementation. This study presents a conceptual design of a GIS-supported model selection system that evaluates available data and mathematical models to facilitate groundwater protection programs. Steady-state groundwater and contaminant transport models applied in isotropic aquifers are placed into four classes to simulate conservative or nonconservative contaminant transports in simple or complex geohydrological conditions. After analyzing specific study objectives, available data, and model requirements, the proposed system selects a class of models that can be used in simulation and recommends any need for additional data collection. This study initiates an effort to integrate GIS, mathematical models, and expert knowledge in one system to promote the application of appropriate groundwater models. The new technology of GIS and digital data-base management makes it possible to develop such a system in practice.KEY WORDS: Groundwater models; Geographic information systems     

Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers

The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO₂. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.     

ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.