The influences of climate and hydrology on population dynamics of waterbirds in the lower Murrumbidgee River floodplains in Southeast Australia: Implications for environmental water management

Restoration of waterbird diversity and abundance is a key objective of river system management in Australia. Therefore, understanding the effects of climatic and hydrological variables on waterbird population dynamics is fundamental for successful river restoration programs. We investigated the population dynamics of waterbirds (total abundance) and seven functional waterbird groups in the floodplains of lower Murrumbidgee River. We found a general declining abundance trend from 1983 to 2007, except for the deep water foragers. We modelled the relative contribution of the climatic and hydrological factors to waterbird population decrease using the generalized additive model (GAM) framework after identifying the negative binomial distribution. Most of the seven functional groups were positively related to both annual rainfall and water usage, defined as the total water volume intercepted by the river reach, and the models indicated that rainfall was slightly more important. Temperature also played a role in waterbird abundance: the maximum summer temperature negatively influenced the abundance of dabbling ducks, shoreline foragers and fish eaters, while the minimum winter temperature positively affected the abundance of dabbling ducks and shoreline foragers. Overall, our results support the practice of providing environmental water for sustaining waterbird populations. However, environmental water provision is likely to be most effective when timed to coincide with antecedent rainfall.     

Scaling-up spatially-explicit ecological models using graphics processors

How the properties of ecosystems relate to spatial scale is a prominent topic in current ecosystem research. Despite this, spatially explicit models typically include only a limited range of spatial scales, mostly because of computing limitations. Here, we describe the use of graphics processors to efficiently solve spatially explicit ecological models at large spatial scale using the CUDA language extension. We explain this technique by implementing three classical models of spatial self-organization in ecology: a spiral-wave forming predator-prey model, a model of pattern formation in arid vegetation, and a model of disturbance in mussel beds on rocky shores. Using these models, we show that the solutions of models on large spatial grids can be obtained on graphics processors with up to two orders of magnitude reduction in simulation time relative to normal pc processors. This allows for efficient simulation of very large spatial grids, which is crucial for, for instance, the study of the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the formation of self-organized spatial patterns, thereby facilitating the comparison between theoretical results and empirical data. Finally, we show that large-scale spatial simulations are preferable over repetitions at smaller spatial scales in identifying the presence of scaling relations in spatially self-organized ecosystems. Hence, the study of scaling laws in ecology may benefit significantly from implementation of ecological models on graphics processors.     

An inverse model for the analysis of the Venice lagoon food web

A steady-state model of the Venice lagoon food web was constructed, based on a comprehensive set of data, which were collected in the years 2001-2005. Energy flows were estimated by means of an inverse methodology of constrained optimization based on the Minimum Norm criterion, i.e. on the minimization of both the sum of squares of the residuals and of the sum of squares of energy flows. The solution was constrained by a set inequalities, which were derived from general eco-physiological knowledge and site specific data on energy flows. The trophic network was represented by thirty-two nodes, including single-species compartments for the species of high economical or ecological relevance. Mass balance equations were weighted, in order to obtain meaningful results in presence of large differences, up to 5 orders of magnitude, among biomasses. A perturbation technique was applied, with the purpose of reducing the risk of finding solutions heavily affected by the set of constraints and of obtaining a more robust representation of the energy flows. The main patterns of energy flow are consistent with those obtained in previous attempts at modelling the Venice lagoon food web. Micro- and macro-phytobenthos account for the largest fraction of the primary production. Energy is then transferred towards higher trophic levels by means of two main pathways: the recycling of dead biomass through the detritus compartment and the direct consumption by grazers. The first pathway is the most important and accounts for approximately two/thirds of the energy transferred to the second trophic level.     

Disentangling the effects of heterogeneity, stochastic dynamics and sampling in a community of aquatic insects

A dynamic and heterogeneous species abundance model generating the lognormal species abundance distribution is fitted to time series of species data from an assemblage of stoneflies and mayflies (Plecoptera and Ephemeroptera) of an aquatic insect community collected over a period of 15 years. In each year except one, we analyze 5 parallel samples taken at the same time of the season giving information about the over-dispersion in the sampling relative to the Poisson distribution. Results are derived from a correlation analysis, where the correlation in the bivariate normal distribution of log abundance is used as measurement of similarity between communities. The analysis enables decomposition of the variance of the lognormal species abundance distribution into three components due to heterogeneity among species, stochastic dynamics driven by environmental noise, and over-dispersion in sampling, accounting for 62.9, 30.6 and 6.5% of the total variance, respectively. Corrected for sampling the heterogeneity and stochastic components accordingly account for 67.3 and 32.7% of the among species variance in log abundance. By using this method, it is possible to disentangle the effect of heterogeneity and stochastic dynamics by quantifying these components and correctly remove sampling effects on the observed species abundance distribution.     

Common challenges for ecological modelling: Synthesis of facilitated discussions held at the symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada, (October 6-9, 2009)

The eleven symposia organized for the 2009 conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) held in Quebec City, Canada, October 6-9, 2009, included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three broad categories: theoretical development, population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Following discussions with the symposia organizers, which indicated that they all shared similar issues and concerns, the facilitated discussions were task-oriented around four basic questions: (1) key challenges in the research area, (2) generating and sharing new ideas, (3) improving collaboration and networking, and (4) increasing visibility to decision-makers, partners and clients. Common challenges that emerged from the symposia included the need for improved communication and collaboration among different academic disciplines, further progress in both theoretical and practical modelling approaches, and accentuation of technology transfer. Regarding the generation and sharing of new ideas, the main issue that emerged was the type of positive interactions that should be encouraged among potential collaborators. The usefulness of the Internet, particularly for the sharing of open-source software and conducting discussion forums, was highlighted for improving collaboration and networking. Several communication tools are available today, and it is important for modellers to use them more intensively. Visibility can be increased by publishing professional newsletters, maintaining informal contacts with the public, organizing educational sessions in primary and secondary schools, and developing simplified analytical frameworks and pilot studies. Specific issues raised in each symposium are also discussed.     

Null models reveal preferential sampling, spatial autocorrelation and overfitting in habitat suitability modelling

Nowadays, species are driven to extinction at a high rate. To reduce this rate it is important to delineate suitable habitats for these species in such a way that these areas can be suggested as conservation areas. The use of habitat suitability models (HSMs) can be of great importance for the delineation of such areas. In this study MaxEnt, a presence-only modelling technique, is used to develop HSMs for 223 nematode species of the Southern Bight of the North Sea. However, it is essential that these models are beyond discussion and they should be checked for potential errors. In this study we focused on two categories (1) errors which can be attributed to the database such as preferential sampling and spatial autocorrelation and (2) errors induced by the modelling technique such as overfitting, In order to quantify these adverse effects thousands of nulls models were created. The effect of preferential sampling (i.e. some areas where visited more frequenty than others) was investigated by comparing model outcomes based from null models sampling the actual sampling stations and null models sampling the entire mapping area (Raes and ter Steege, 2007). Overfitting is exposed by a fivefold cross-validation and the influence of spatial autocorrelation is assessed by separating test and training sets in space. Our results clearly show that all these effects are present: preferential sampling has a strong effect on the selection of non-random species models. Crossvalidation seems to have less influence on the model selection and spatial autocorrelation is also strongly present. It is clear from this study that predefined thresholds are not readily applicable to all datasets and additional tests are needed in model selection.     

云南荞麦地流域地下水水化学特征及物质来源分析

为研究荞麦地流域地下水的水化学特征及物质来源,2017年7月在研究区共采集地下水的水样32个,综合运用聚类分析、因子分析和路径模型分析等方法,分析了荞麦地流域地下水水化学特征,并定性和定量探讨了荞麦地流域地下水水化学的物质来源.结果表明,研究区内水体整体呈弱碱性,Ca~(2+)、Mg~(2+)、SO_4~(2-)、HCO_3~-和N_3O~-等主要阴阳离子具有较高的空间变异性.通过聚类分析可知,研究区内地下水可分为两大类:A类和B类,分别具有两个子集:A_1、A_2、B_1和B_2,并且从A类地下水到B类地下水化学类型开始变得复杂,A类地下水水化学类型均为HCO_3-Ca型,B_1类地下水和B_2类地下水分别有HCO_3-Ca型、HCO_3-Na·Ca型、HCO_3-Na·Ca·Mg型和HCO_3-Ca型、HCO_3-Ca·Mg型、HCO_3-Na·Ca型各3类.为进一步探讨地下水水化学的影响因素,通过因子分析和路径模型分析可确定碳酸盐岩、人类活动、蒸发岩和硅酸盐岩是地下水的主要物质来源.其中人类活动的作用和MgSO_4型蒸发岩的溶解,是形成以碳酸盐岩为地下水化学组分的主要来源,同时具有多元地下水水化学特征的重要原因.     

Occupational Health Care in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises—How Many Doctors Do We Need and How Do We Ensure Good Care?

The translation of the framework directive 89/391/EEC (Council Directive 89/391/EEC) into national law aims at supplying occupational protection and health care to all employees of large, small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) likewise, depending on assessed exposure. Prior incomplete protection of the German workforce with bias against the SMEs requires an assessment of quantitative and qualitative adequacy of present occupational health care practice and also of future needs.

Therefore, the Federal Institute for Occupational Safety and Health of Germany initiated a study to evaluate the present state of occupational health care in 4 regions with different geographic and economic structure. Based on these data the future demand for adequately trained occupational physicians will be estimated by employing a statistical method that allows for including a large number of modifying variables (economic development, demographic change, etc.).

Expected result of the applied technique are the estimated minimal and maximal number of occupational physicians that have to be trained to meet future demand. In the same study models of best practice will be identified and evaluated for general application. The project started in October 1997 and will be finished by January 2000.     

Heat Gain From Thermal Radiation Through Protective Clothing With Different Insulation,Reflectivity and Vapour Permeability

The heat transferred through protective clothing under long wave radiation compared to a reference condition without radiant stress was determined in thermal manikin experiments. The influence of clothing insulation and reflectivity, and the interaction with wind and wet underclothing were considered. Garments with different outer materials and colours and additionally an aluminised reflective suit were combined with different number and types of dry and pre-wetted underwear layers. Under radiant stress, whole body heat loss decreased, i.e., heat gain occurred compared to the reference. This heat gain increased with radiation intensity, and decreased with air velocity and clothing insulation. Except for the reflective outer layer that showed only minimal heat gain over the whole range of radiation intensities, the influence of the outer garments’ material and colour was small with dry clothing. Wetting the underclothing for simulating sweat accumulation, however, caused differing effects with higher heat gain in less permeable garments.     

Aerosol concentration and particle size distributions in underground excavations of a hard coal mine

Deposition of aerosols in the respiratory system depends inter alia on their size and the respiratory tract deposition is appreciable for nanometer-sized particles. This article presents the results of measurements of size distributions of aerosols in the range of several nanometers up to about 20?μm in the underground mine excavations of an active hard coal mine. The study included practically all particles of a respirable fraction. The results showed that a high concentration of fine and ultrafine aerosols occurs in key underground workplaces especially during mining machine operations, although their contribution to total mass concentration is usually negligible.