Effects of Harvest of Nontimber Forest Products and Ecological Differences between Sites on the Demography of African Mahogany

Abstract: The demographic impacts of harvesting nontimber forest products (NTFP) have been increasingly studied because of reports of potentially unsustainable harvest. Nevertheless, our understanding of how plant demographic response to harvest is altered by variation in ecological conditions, which is critical for developing realistic sustainable‐use plans, is limited. We built matrix population models to test whether and how variation in ecological conditions affects population responses to harvest. In particular, we examined the effect of bark and foliage harvest on the demography of populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in two contrasting ecological regions of Benin, West Africa. K. senegalensis bark and foliage harvest significantly reduced its stochastic population growth rates, but ecological differences between regions had a greater effect on population growth rates than did harvest. The effect of harvest on population growth rates (Δλ) was slightly stronger in the moist than in the drier region. Life‐table response experiments revealed that the mechanism by which harvesting reduced λ differed between ecological regions. Lowered stasis (persistence) of larger life stages lead to a reduction in λ in the drier region, whereas lowered growth of all life stages lowered λ in moist region. Potential strategies to increase population growth rates should include decreasing the proportion of individuals harvested, promoting harvester‐owned plantations of African mahogany, and increasing survival and growth by promoting no‐fire zones in gallery forests. Our results show how population responses to harvest of NTFP may be altered by ecological differences across sites and emphasize the importance of monitoring populations over the climatic range in which they occur to develop more realistic recommendations for conservation.     

Measuring impacts on species with models and metrics of varying ecological and computational complexity

Approaches to assess the impacts of landscape disturbance scenarios on species range from metrics based on patterns of occurrence or habitat to comprehensive models that explicitly include ecological processes. The choice of metrics and models affects how impacts are interpreted and conservation decisions. We explored the impacts of 3 realistic disturbance scenarios on 4 species with different ecological and taxonomic traits. We used progressively more complex models and metrics to evaluate relative impact and rank of scenarios on the species. Models ranged from species distribution models that relied on implicit assumptions about environmental factors and species presence to highly parameterized spatially explicit population models that explicitly included ecological processes and stochasticity. Metrics performed consistently in ranking different scenarios in order of severity primarily when variation in impact was driven by habitat amount. However, they differed in rank for cases where dispersal dynamics were critical in influencing metapopulation persistence. Impacts of scenarios on species with low dispersal ability were better characterized using models that explicitly captured these processes. Metapopulation capacity provided rank orders that most consistently correlated with those from highly parameterized and data-rich models and incorporated information about dispersal with little additional computational and data cost. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering species’ ecology, spatial configuration of habitat, and disturbance when choosing indicators of species persistence. We suggest using hybrid approaches that are a mixture of simple and complex models to improve multispecies assessments.     

Urban Land-Use Influences on Transport of Heavy Metals to Lakes and Concentrations in Fish

Water, Air, &; Soil Pollution: Focus - To investigate the urban land-useinfluences on transport of heavy metals to lakesand metal concentrations in fish liver (perch andcrucian carp), ten lakes...     

循环经济发展的现状及主要模式

介绍了国内外发展循环经济的现状,提出发展循环经济的三种模式,即企业层面上的小循环模式,区域层面上的中循环模式和社会层面上的大循环模式。发展循环经济,建设循环型社会是当前经济发展与环境保护有机结合,转变经济增长方式,实现可持续发展的重要途径。     

IDENTIFICATION OF CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: A set of procedures for identifying changes in selected streamflow characteristics at sites having long‐term continuous streamflow records is illustrated by using streamflow data from the Waccamaw River at Freeland, North Carolina for the 55‐year period of 1940–1994. Data were evaluated and compared to streamflow in the adjacent Lumber River Basin to determine if changes in streamflow characteristics in the Waccamaw River were localized and possibly the result of some human activity, or consistent with regional variations. Following 1963, droughts in the Waccamaw Basin seem to have been less severe than in the Lumber Basin, and the annual one‐, seven‐, and 30‐day low flows exhibited a slightly increasing trend in the Waccamaw River. Mean daily flows in the Waccamaw River at the 90 percent exceedance level (low flows) during 1985–194, a relatively dry period, were very nearly equal to flows at the same exceedance level for 1970–1979, which represents the 10‐year period between 1940 and 1994 with the highest flows. Prior to the 1980s, flows per unit drainage area in the Waccamaw Basin were generally less than those in the Lumber Basin, but after 1980, the opposite was true. The ratio of base flow to runoff in the Waccamaw River may have changed relative to that in the Lumber River in the late 1970s. There was greater variability in Waccamaw River streamflow than in Lumber River flow, and flow variability in the Waccamaw River may have increased slightly during 1985–1994.     

The importance of tangible and intangible factors in human–carnivore coexistence

Conflict with humans is one of the major threats facing the world's remaining large carnivore populations, and understanding human attitudes is key to improving coexistence. We surveyed people living near Hwange National Park about their attitudes toward coexisting with lions. We used ordinal regression models with the results of the survey to investigate the importance of a range of tangible and intangible factors on attitudes. The variables investigated included the costs and benefits of wildlife presence, emotion, culture, religion, vulnerability, risk perception, notions of responsibility, and personal value orientations. This was for the purpose of effectively tailoring conservation efforts but also for ethical policy making. Intangible factors (e.g., fear and ecocentric values) were as important as, if not more important than, tangible factors (such as livestock losses) for understanding attitudes, based on the effect sizes of these variables. The degree to which participants’ fear of lions interfered with their daily activities was the most influential variable. The degree to which benefits accrue to households from the nearby protected area was also highly influential, as was number of livestock lost, number of dependents, ecocentric value orientation, and participation in conflict mitigation programs. Contrary to what is often assumed, metrics of livestock loss did not dominate attitudes to coexistence with lions. Furthermore, we found that socioeconomic variables may appear important when studied in isolation, but their effect may disappear when controlling for variables related to beliefs, perceptions, and past experiences. This raises questions about the widespread reliance on socioeconomic variables in the field of human–wildlife conflict and coexistence. To facilitate coexistence with large carnivores, we recommend measures that reduce fear (through education and through protective measures that reduce the need to be fearful), reduction of livestock losses, and ensuring local communities benefit from conservation. Ecocentric values also emerged as influential, highlighting the need to develop conservation initiatives tailored to local values.     

Parallel agent-based modeling of spatial opinion diffusion accelerated using graphics processing units

In this article, we describe a parallel agent-based model of spatial opinion diffusion that is driven by graphics processing units (GPUs). Modeling opinion exchange and diffusion across landscapes often involves the simulation of large numbers of geographically located individual decision-makers and a massive number of individual-level interactions. This simulation requires substantial computational power. GPU-enabled computing resources provide a massively parallel processing platform based on a fine-grained shared memory paradigm. This massively parallel processing platform holds considerable promise for meeting the computing requirement of agent-based models of spatial problems. In this article, we focus on the parallelization of an agent-based spatial opinion model using GPU technologies. We discussed key algorithms designed for parallel agent-based opinion modeling: including domain decomposition and mutual exclusion. Experiments conducted to examine computing performance show that GPUs provide a computationally efficient alternative to traditional parallel computing architectures and substantially accelerate agent-based models of large-scale opinion exchange among individual decision makers.     

HOMINIDS: An agent-based spatial simulation model to evaluate behavioral patterns of early Pleistocene hominids

The HOMINIDS ABM is a new Agent Based Model that simulates the actions of two species of proto-human agents defined by a few, simple parameters. These proto-human agents attempt to subsist by foraging and nesting on dynamic, spatially explicit landscapes. The landscapes are described with a number of parameters based on empirical field data collected in habitats in East Africa. The results of three separate scenarios with 1 year model runs repeated 30 times each, for a total of 90 simulations, are presented and discussed to illustrate both the capacity and flexibility of our ABM modeling environment. The simulations show that the model food preferences and anatomy ascribed to Australopithecus boisei resulted in different expressions of foraging behaviors and subsistence strategies in two distinct ecological settings, and that adding tubers to the diet significantly increases the chances of the hominid agents meeting their daily caloric requirements year-round. In addition, this paper provides links to the open-source implementation code, along with the user documentation, design document, java API, and all datasets required to replicate the simulations.     

城市大气环境治理创新模式及方法

在经济快速发展与工业进程加快的推动下,人们生活条件得到改善。然而,大气污染问题也随之加剧,使城市形象受到严重损害,并阻碍城市发展与进步。相关部门需要对此种问题加以重视,积极制定防治措施。本文对大气污染危害与成因进行简单分析,并对其治理创新模式和方法进行简单介绍。     

Generality of Models that Predict the Distribution of Species: Conservation Activity and Reduction of Model Transferability for a Threatened Bustard

Abstract:  Predictive models can help clarify the distribution of poorly known species but should display strong transferability when applied to independent data. Nevertheless, model transferability for threatened tropical species is poorly studied. We built models predicting the incidence of the critically endangered Bengal Florican ( Houbaropsis bengalensis ) within the Tonle Sap (TLS) floodplain, Cambodia. Separate models were constructed with soil, land-use, and landscape data and species incidence sampled over the entire floodplain (12,000 km²) and from the Kompong Thom (KT) province (4000 km²). In each case, the probability of Bengal Florican presence within randomly selected 1 × 1 km squares was modeled by binary logistic regression with multimodel inference. We assessed the transferability of the KT model by comparing predictions with observed incidence elsewhere in the floodplain. In terms of standard model-validation statistics, the KT model showed good spatial transferability. Nevertheless, it overpredicted florican presence outside the KT calibration region, classifying 491 km² as suitable habitat compared with 237 km² predicted as suitable by the TLS model. This resulted from higher species incidence within the calibration region, probably owing to a program of conservation education and enforcement that has reduced persecution there. Because both research and conservation activity frequently focus on areas with higher density, such effects could be widespread, reducing transferability of predictive distribution models.