Mathematical Modelling of Muscle Effect on the Kinematics of the Head-Neck Complex in a Frontal Car Collision: A Parameter Study

A 2-dimensional multibody model of the head-neck complex with muscle elements was developed to estimate the influence of muscles on the kinematics of the head-neck complex in a frontal car collision. With this model the authors evaluated how strongly the calculated influence of muscles depends on 3 important factors: (a) impact severity, (b) reflex time, and (c) parameters that determine characteristics of different components of the muscle model. When muscles were triggered at the beginning of impact, the maximum angle of the head flexion was decreased by the muscles by 40% in a frontal collision with an acceleration of 15g. The influence of muscles was significant for reflex times lower than 60 (80) ms. The calculated influence of muscles was not sensitive to most parameters of the muscle model.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

Development of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Allocation

Nutrient load allocations and subsequent reductions in total nitrogen and phosphorus have been applied in the Chesapeake watershed since 1992 to reduce hypoxia and to restore living resources. In 2010, sediment allocations were established to augment nutrient allocations supporting the submerged aquatic vegetation resource. From the initial introduction of nutrient allocations in 1992 to the present, the allocations have become more completely applied to all areas and loads in the watershed and have also become more rigorously assessed and tracked. The latest 2010 application of nutrient and sediment allocations were made as part of the Chesapeake Bay total maximum daily load and covered all six states of the Chesapeake watershed. A quantitative allocation process was developed that applied principles of equity and efficiency in the watershed, while achieving all tidal water quality standards through an assessment of equitable levels of effort in reducing nutrients and sediments. The level of effort was determined through application of two key watershed scenarios: one where no action was taken in nutrient control and one where maximum nutrient control efforts were applied. Once the level of effort was determined for different jurisdictions, the overall load reduction was set watershed‐wide to achieve dissolved oxygen water quality standards. Further adjustments were made to the allocation to achieve the James River chlorophyll‐a standard.     

A Semianalytical Solution for Residual Drawdown at a Finite Diameter Well in a Confined Aquifer

After the end of pumping the water level in the observation well starts to recover and the reduced drawdown during the recovery period is named as the residual drawdown. Traditional approaches in analyzing the data of residual drawdown for estimating the aquifer hydraulic parameters are mostly based on the application of superposition principle and Theis equation. In addition, the effect of wellbore storage is commonly ignored in the evaluation even if the test well has a finite diameter. In this article, we develop a mathematical model for describing the residual drawdown with considering the wellbore storage effect and the existing drawdown distribution produced by the pumping part of the test. The Laplace‐domain solution of the model is derived using the Laplace transform technique and the time‐domain result is inverted based on the Stehfest algorithm. This new solution shows that the residual drawdown associated with the boundary and initial conditions are related to the well drawdown and the aquifer drawdown, respectively. The well residual drawdown will be overestimated by the Theis residual drawdown solution in the early recovery part if neglecting the wellbore storage. On the other hand, the Theis residual drawdown solution can be used to approximate the present residual drawdown solution in the late recovery part of the test.     

防污漆中活性物质海洋环境风险评估关键技术探讨

防污漆中的活性物质对海洋生态环境和人类健康造成的潜在风险受到日益广泛的关注,一些发达国家已建立了针对活性物质海洋环境风险评估的技术体系,但我国相关研究目前尚属空白。综述了防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估的研究背景、相关法规、技术标准和发展现状,针对环境风险评估的2个重要组成部分(危害性评估和暴露评估)中的关键技术进行了探讨。在危害性评估中,重点分析和比较了受试生物物种的选择原则、生态毒理数据的要求以及预测无效应浓度的推导方法和应用范围;在暴露评估中,系统阐述了活性物质在水环境中释放速率的计算及修正方法、环境浓度的预测模型、现有的暴露场景及其局限性等。本文以期为我国开展防污漆活性物质海洋环境风险评估提供研究基础和科学依据,并提出了今后的研究重点和方向。     

2006年1-2月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2006年1-2月国内发生的各种安全事故413起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,交通事故最多,占49.15%,平均每天3.4起事故,其次是矿业事故(39.47%)、爆炸事故(3.87%)、其他事故(3.63%)、毒物泄露和中毒(1.94%)、火灾(1.94%).413起事故共死亡1 302人,伤1 367人,死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故61.52%、矿业事故22.66%、爆炸事故6.84%、泄露中毒4.30%、其他事故3.30%、火灾1.38%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故73.81%、矿业事故10.83%、爆炸事故9.44%、其他事故4.39%、火灾0.88%、泄露中毒0.66%.     

2006年5-6月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2006年5-6月国内发生的各种安全事故279起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,交通事故最多,占48.03%,其次是矿业事故(27.60%)、其他事故(8.24%)、爆炸事故(6.45%)、毒物泄露和中毒(6.09%)、火灾(3.58%).279起事故共死亡1 106人,伤1 043人,死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故45.30%、矿业事故32.37%、爆炸事故7.23%、其他事故6.78%、泄露中毒4.79%、火灾3.53%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故52.92%、矿业事故16.49%、爆炸事故9.88%、泄露中毒9.68%、其他事故6.52%、火灾4.51%.     

Estimating biodegradation half-lives for use in chemical screening

Biodegradation half-lives are needed for many applications in chemical screening, but these data are not available for most chemicals. To address this, in phase one of this work we correlated the much more abundant ready and inherent biodegradation test data with measured half-lives for water and soil. In phase two, we explored the utility of the BIOWIN™ models (in EPI Suite™) and molecular fragments for predicting half-lives. BIOWIN™ model output was correlated directly with measured half-lives, and new models were developed by re-regressing the BIOWIN™ fragments against the half-lives. All of these approaches gave the best results when used for binary (fast/slow) classification of half-lives, with accuracy generally in the 70–80% range. In the last phase, we used the collected half-life data to examine the default half-lives assigned by EPI Suite™ and the PBT Profiler™ for use as input to their level III multimedia models. It is concluded that estimated half-lives should not be used for purposes other than binning or prioritizing chemicals unless accuracy improves significantly.     

Modelling radionuclide transport for time varying flow in a channel network

Water flowrates and flow directions may change over time in the subsurface for a number of reasons. In fractured rocks flow takes place in channels within fractures. Solutes are carried by the advective flow. In addition, solutes may diffuse in and out of stagnant waters in the rock matrix and other stagnant water regions. Sorbing species may sorb on fracture surfaces and on the micropore surfaces in the rock matrix. We present a method by which solute particles can be traced in flowing water undergoing changes in flowrate and direction in a complex channel network where the solutes can also interact with the rock by diffusion in the rock matrix. The novelty of this paper is handling of diffusion in the rock matrix under transient flow conditions. The diffusive processes are stochastic and it is not possible to follow a particle deterministically. The method therefore utilises the properties of a probability distribution function for a tracer moving in a fracture where matrix diffusion is active. The method is incorporated in a three dimensional channel network model. Particle tracking is used to trace out a multitude of flowpaths, each of which consists of a large number of channels within fractures. Along each channel the aperture and velocity as well as the matrix sorption properties can vary. An efficient method is presented whereby a particle can be followed along the variable property flowpath. For stationary flow conditions and a network of channels with advective flow and matrix diffusion, a simple analytical solution for the residence time distribution along each pathway can be used. Only two parameter groups need to be integrated along each path. For transient flow conditions, a time stepping procedure that incorporates a stochastic Monte-Carlo like method to follow the particles along the paths when flow conditions change is used. The method is fast and an example is used for illustrative purposes. It is exemplified by a case where land rises due to glacial rebound. It is shown that the effects of changing flowrates and directions can be considerable and that the diffusive migration in the matrix can have a dominating effect on the results.     

State-of-the-art of ecological modelling with emphasis on development of structural dynamic models

The paper deals with two major problems in ecological modelling today, namely how to get reliable parameters? and how to build ecosystem properties into our models? The use of new mathematical tools to answer these questions is mentioned briefly, but the main focus of the paper is on development of structural dynamic models which are models using goal functions to reflect a current change of the properties of the biological components in the models. These changes of the properties are due to the enormous adaptability of the biological components to the prevailing conditions. All species in an ecosystem attempt to obtain most biomass, i.e. to move as far away as possible from thermodynamic equilibrium which can be measured by the thermodynamic concept exergy. Consequently, exergy has been proposed as a goal function in ecological models with dynamic structure, meaning currently changed properties of the biological components and in model language currently changed parameters. An equation to compute an exergy index of a model is presented. The theoretical considerations leading to this equation are not presented here but references to literature where the basis theory can be found are given. Two case studies of structural dynamic modelling are presented: a shallow lake where the structural dynamic changes have been determined before the model was developed, and the application of biomanipulation in lake management, where the structural dynamic changes are generally known. Moreover. it is also discussed how the same idea of using exergy as a goal function in ecological modelling may be applied to facilitate the estimation of parameters.