高校学生安全素质调查研究

高校是一个聚集着大批社会人才的特殊地理区域，是国家经济发展的源泉与动力所在。高校学生是国家文化，知识的领军人物，是社会发展的栋梁。但近年来，高校安全事故不断披露于各种新闻媒体，究其主要原因是由于高校学生较低的安全素质。本文利用调查问卷和统计分析方法，对高校学生的安全素质进行调查和分析，为高校的安全管理和校园安全文化建设提供参考。     

Mid‐Range Streamflow Forecasts Based on Climate Modeling – Statistical Correction and Evaluation1

Abstract: Mid‐range streamflow predictions are extremely important for managing water resources. The ability to provide mid‐range (three to six months) streamflow forecasts enables considerable improvements in water resources system operations. The skill and economic value of such forecasts are of great interest. In this research, output from a general circulation model (GCM) is used to generate hydrologic input for mid‐range streamflow forecasts. Statistical procedures including: (1) transformation, (2) correction, (3) observation of ensemble average, (4) improvement of forecast, and (5) forecast skill test are conducted to minimize the error associated with different spatial resolution between the large‐scale GCM and the finer‐scale hydrologic model and to improve forecast skills. The accuracy of a streamflow forecast generated using a hydrologic model forced with GCM output for the basin was evaluated by forecast skill scores associated with the set of streamflow forecast values in a categorical forecast. Despite the generally low forecast skill score exhibited by the climate forecasting approach, precipitation forecast skill clearly improves when a conditional forecast is performed during the East Asia summer monsoon, June through August.     

Influence of hydrodynamic conditions on the production and fate of Posidonia oceanica in a semi-enclosed shallow basin (Stagnone di Marsala, Western Sicily)

An integrated approach using hydrodynamic and transport numerical models, lepidochronology and stable isotope analysis was used to investigate how local hydrodynamic conditions influence the primary production and fate of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in a Mediterranean semi-enclosed marine system (Stagnone di Marsala). The water mass exchange aptitude of different sectors of the basin was analysed, and data collected were used to select two sectors (colonized by Posidonia oceanica showing the lowest and highest water exchange values) for biological analyses. According to the mean dispersal coefficient differences simulated by the hydrodynamic model, growth rate and primary production of P. oceanica differed between sectors, with average values lower in the central sector where water exchange is lower than in the southern sector. Although P. oceanica coverage and primary production were higher in the southern sector, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope analysis suggests that the transfer of seagrass organic matter to higher trophic levels of the food web was higher in the central sector. The possibility of a link between hydrodynamism, production and fate of organic matter is proposed to explain the observed patterns.     

Using Scalar Models for Precautionary Assessments of Threatened Species

Abstract:  Scalar population models, commonly referred to as count-based models, are based on time-series data of population sizes and may be useful for screening-level ecological risk assessments when data for more complex models are not available. Appropriate use of such models for management purposes, however, requires understanding inherent biases that may exist in these models. Through a series of simulations, which compared predictions of risk of decline of scalar and matrix-based models, we examined whether discrepancies may arise from different dynamics displayed due to age structure and generation time. We also examined scalar and matrix-based population models of 18 real populations for potential patterns of bias in population viability estimates. In the simulation study, precautionary bias (i.e., overestimating risks of decline) of scalar models increased as a function of generation time. Models of real populations showed poor fit between scalar and matrix-based models, with scalar models predicting significantly higher risks of decline on average. The strength of this bias was not correlated with generation time, suggesting that additional sources of bias may be masking this relationship. Scalar models can be useful for screening-level assessments, which should in general be precautionary, but the potential shortfalls of these models should be considered before using them as a basis for management decisions.     

Impact of Criticism of Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing on Statistical Reporting Practices in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Over the last decade, criticisms of null-hypothesis significance testing have grown dramatically, and several alternative practices, such as confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian methods, have been advocated. Have these calls for change had an impact on the statistical reporting practices in conservation biology? In 2000 and 2001, 92% of sampled articles in Conservation Biology and Biological Conservation reported results of null-hypothesis tests. In 2005 this figure dropped to 78%. There were corresponding increases in the use of confidence intervals, information theoretic, and Bayesian techniques. Of those articles reporting null-hypothesis testing—which still easily constitute the majority—very few report statistical power (8%) and many misinterpret statistical nonsignificance as evidence for no effect (63%). Overall, results of our survey show some improvements in statistical practice, but further efforts are clearly required to move the discipline toward improved practices.     

2001年12月-2002年2月国内安全事故数据

统计了2001年12月2002年2月国内发生的各种安全事故592起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故等.统计表明,在592起事故中,矿业事故最多,占51.1 4%,平均每天3起事故,其次是交通事故(19.9%)、爆炸事故(15.2%)、火灾(5.6%)、其他事故(4.6%)、毒物泄露和中毒(3.4%).592起事故共死亡1 526人,伤2 469人,死亡人数的百分比分别为矿业事故39.2%、交通事故36.8%、爆炸事故14.5%、火灾4.1%、其他事故3.7%、泄露中毒1.7%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故46.9%、爆炸事故18.2%、泄露中毒12.2%、其他事故11.8%、矿业事故8.6%、火灾2.2%.     

某型飞机典型结构危险部位地面停放预腐蚀影响系数曲线的试验测定

目的评定飞机日历寿命,测定飞机典型结构件的地面停放系数随日历年限的变化规律(C-T曲线)。方法针对典型飞机结构连接件,首先在实验室条件下采用加速腐蚀的预腐蚀试验及预腐蚀后的疲劳试验,得到不同加速当量腐蚀年限下的疲劳寿命,然后对疲劳试验数据进行统计及处理。结果最后拟合得到飞机典型结构件的地面停放系数随日历年限的变化规律曲线。结论通过C-T曲线可为某型飞机的定寿提供基础。     

泉州市街道灰尘中重金属来源分析

用ICP-MS测定了泉州市不同功能区街道灰尘中11种重金属元素(Cr、Fe、Mn、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Sb、Pb、Bi、Co)的含量。结果表明,上述元素的平均含量均高于当地土壤背景值,尤以Zn、Cd、Sb、Pb富集较严重。多元统计分析(相关分析、因子分析、聚类分析)结果显示,泉州市街道灰尘中上述重金属来源可分为三大类:Cu、Pb、Sb、Cd、Bi主要来自机械加工和交通污染;Mn、Zn主要来自农药喷洒和生活污染;Fe、Cr、Ni、Co则主要来自钢铁工业污染和自然源。     

纺织行业生产、排污及治理现状的研究

纺织行业是中国国民经济的支柱产业和民生产业,在珠江三角洲城市经济中占据着重要的地位,对于促进经济增长,以及解决就业问题具有重要的意义.由于纺织设备和工艺水平限制等,纺织行业对环境影响也较大.通过调研珠三角一城市纺织行业56家重点企业,对行业的生产、排污现状及治理作了介绍,调研计算推测出排污结果,并与环境统计数据作对比,研究了该市纺织行业的排污现状和治理效果,为制定地区环境质量保障方案和科学地调整产业结构提供依据.     

全向辐照电磁环境构建及与BPSK系统的干扰效应研究

目的分析某型通信电台在工作时所处的复杂电磁环境,构建基于混响室原理的全向辐照电磁环境。方法以一个采用标准BPSK信号的数字通信系统为例,研究干扰信号码速、频率偏移量、信干比等参数对系统误码率的影响。结果当干扰信号码速低于期望信号码速时,随着频率偏移量的增加,接收系统误码率也随之减小,且呈现周期性规律;当信干比相同时,在相同的频率偏移下,干扰信号的码速越高,其干扰效果越好;当干扰信号码速高于期望信号码速时,随着干扰信号码速的进一步增大,干扰效果将呈现逐渐降低的趋势。结论该研究在电子装备的复杂电磁环境适应性方面做出了有益探索,为今后的复杂电磁环境适应性理论的深入研究提供了借鉴。