ESTIMATING THE WATER RESOURCE FOR A HIGH SIERRA WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Competition for water, concerns for maintaining ground water quality, and compliance with legislative action require quantification of the water resource for high elevation watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. However, meager hydroclimatic data frequently hinder runoff assessments needed for formulating water development policies, and the selection of watershed models for estimating the water resource is limited to those requiring a minimum of observational data. A climatic water budget model and an energy slope and aspect model are employed to estimate the water resource for a small watershed in Sierra Valley north of Lake Tahoe. The models employ different assumptions and computational procedures, but the total water available estimated by both models is very similar. Measured runoff is estimated satisfactorily by the models, but streamflow is not representative of the total water resource because a substantial portion of the available water enters the regional ground water system. This conclusion is supported by hydrologic and geochemical evidence, and ground water recharge is estimated to be at least as great as measured runoff during dry years and nearly twice as large during wet years.     

THE STATUS OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION: ITS NATURE,EXTENT AND CONTROL1

Nonpoint source pollution remains as the primary reason for the designation of many of the Nation's streams as “water quality limited.” This means that even with the application of technology-based effluent limitations on point sources, ambient water quality standards will not be met. This paper explores several of the reasons why nonpoint sources are so difficult to come to grips with. These reasons include: (1) the inability to expand the definition of nonpoint sources to encompass nonengineering attributes, (2) the relatively primitive state of characterizing nonpoint sources, (3) the lack of prior success in conducting programs to study and alleviate nonpoint problems, and (4) an uncertain approach to providing incentives for control practices.     

“气候变暖”对雅砻江水资源的影响

本文引入几种统计模型探讨“气候变暖”对水资源的影响。这些模型经实测资料验证，模拟和预测效果了。在一定环境条件下，利用它们预估“气候变暖”对雅砻江未来水资源的影响，获得令人满意的成果。     

SEASONAL PUMPING VARIATION EFFECTS ON WELLHEAD PROTECTION AREA DELINEATION1

ABSTRACT: Delineation of a welihead protection area (WHPA) is the key element in welihead protection programs for drinking water supplies. WHPAs are often delineated under idealized conditions using simple steady-state assumptions, which lead to an incorrect estimation of area and geometry. In this paper, we compare the results from a simple steady-state procedure commonly employed in WHPA delineation with a more complex transient approach that allows consideration of seasonal variation in pumping rates. We also introduce a transient procedure to delineate time-related capture zones using a numerical ground water flow and transport model. Welihead delineation is examined for two municipal wells in Tipton, Oklahoma, using a ten-year time-of-travel criterion. In the steady-state procedure, where we assumed constant pumping rates, we used GPTRAC, a semi-analytical model, and MOC, a numerical model. The capture zone delineated by GPTRAC is comparable in shape with the capture zone delineated by MOC but not in size due to the differences in solution schemes. In the transient procedure, we used MOC and considered the seasonal variation in pumping rates. The capture zones delineated in this procedure were larger than the capture zones delineated by the steady-state procedure using the same model. Further analysis showed that a higher drawdown was predicted in the transient procedure than in the steady-state procedure, which is the reason for larger capture zones.     

WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN REAL-TIME1

ABSTRACT: A strategy is developed for making seasonal water supply forecasts in real time. It links the traditional regression based forecasting techniques to real-time data acquired by systems such as the Soil Conservation Service SNOTEL and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet networks. The concept is based on interpolating between the forecast values obtained by using real-time data in the forecast equations that bracket the real time. Different interpolation procedures were examined and the procedure for calculating confidence intervals about the forecast estimates is developed. The entire conceptual procedure is demonstrated using data from the Reynolds Creek, Idaho, experimental watershed maintained by the USDA-ARS Northwest Watershed Research Center in Boise, Idaho.     

A DYNAMIC BACTERIAL MODEL FOR A RECREATIONAL LAKE1

ABSTRACT A dynamic mathematical model was constructed to examine bacterial contamination problems affecting Ford Lake, a small recreational lake in Southeast Michigan. The model was calibrated and verified using summer dry weather averaged data and data from three wet weather surveys. Model simulations demonstrated that the major bacterial contamination was attributable to storm related perturbations affecting two point sources: the Huron River and the Ypsilanti Sewage Treatment Plant. The nonpoint source contribution was relatively minor. The Model is currently being used by the State of Michigan Department of Natural Resources as a management tool for assessing the effectiveness of planned pollution abatement strategies     

人的生命价值评估方法述评

评估生命价值最常用的两种方法是人力资本法和支付意愿法。用人力资本法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人未来的生产能力来计量,而用支付意愿法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人为降低死亡风险而愿意支付的货币金额来计量。支付意愿法又包括工资—风险法、消费市场法和条件价值法3种类型。工资—风险法通过分析一个人的工资与其工作风险之间的关系来估算生命价值;消费市场法关注的是人们在其进行消费决策时,在风险与价格之间的权衡;而条件价值法则是给定一个假定情景,请被访者对货币和风险进行直接权衡来估算生命价值。笔者对国内外生命价值评估研究进行述评,指出了各种评估方法的优缺点。支付意愿法已成为国外学者评估生命价值的主流方法,学习借鉴国外的研究经验,将这一方法运用于我国的生命价值评估研究是今后国内研究的一个方向。     

我国双车道公路事故预测模型研究中数据采集

事故预测模型的研究可为公路设计人员提供有效的安全设计工具。该研究需要大量基础数据的支撑,数据采集量的大小、数据质量和数据分析水平直接决定研究成果的优劣。笔者在双车道公路事故预测模型研究过程中,对我国双车道公路安全影响要素进行分析,确定基于现有条件下比较理想的数据采集对象,总结了数据采集的方法及其不足之处。具体包括数据采集的范围,样本量的需求,事故数据、交通组成数据、路侧、接入口和路线数据采集的方法、数据处理方式等。     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation Using Support Vector Machines and Ensemble Kalman Filter1

Abstract: A hybrid data assimilation (DA) methodology that combines two state‐of‐the‐art techniques, support vector machines (SVMs) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is applied for soil moisture DA in this work. The SVM methodology provides a statistically sound and robust approach to solving the inverse problem, and thus to building statistical models. EnKF is an extension of the Kalman Filter (KF), a well‐known tool in prediction updating. In the present research, ground measurements were used to build a SVM‐type soil moisture predictor. Subsequent observations and their statistics were assimilated to update predictions from the SVM model by coupling it with EnKF. In this way, both model predictions and ground data, as well as their statistics, are fused thus minimizing the prediction error and making the predictions and observations statistically consistent. The results are shown for two approaches; one in which update is done at every time step and the other which assumes that data is only available at alternate time steps (in window of 10 time steps) and hence update is performed at those occasions. The SVM‐EnKF coupling is shown to improve soil moisture forecasts in an example using data from the Soil Climate Analysis Network site at Ames, Iowa.