Debt for brands: tracking down a bias in financing photovoltaic projects in Germany

What kinds of PV project configurations do lenders prefer to finance? Recent developments in the field of renewable energy project finance have reinforced the need for investigation, as fundraising has become more challenging and project evaluation by banks more demanding. To contribute to the limited research in this field, we focus on photovoltaic projects and report from an Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint experiment with German experts in project finance. We find a bias which we call “debt for brands”. Simulations reveal that debt investors prefer projects with premium brand technology (modules, inverters) to low-cost technology. Although we assumed that lenders prefer projects with the highest Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR), they favor projects with lower DSCR, as long as those projects include premium brand technology. We find that, if premium brands were engaged, lenders would also choose projects with higher risk. Our findings have implications for renewable energy project finance in practice and research.     

国内安全生产监管体系的数学模式分析

要实现安全生产监管的全面化、科学化、规范化,必须建立安全生产监管体系。笔者借鉴安全评价的事故树分析方法和安全检查表法,根据安全生产监管体系的众多因素,提出安全监管"体系树",计算出资金保障、法律法规、机构建设、监管人员理论水平和业务能力、自身修养等在体系中的重要程度排序。用"重要度比例计算"方法进行验证,获得相似的结果。安全监管"体系树"为各地区的安全监管体系建设提供参考。     

2007年9-10月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2007年9-10月国内发生的各类安全事故363起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,交通事故最多,占41.60%,其次是其他事故(36.36%)、矿业事故(11.57%)、爆炸事故(4.13%)、火灾(3.31%)、毒物泄露和中毒(3.03%).363起事故共死亡1098人,伤1215人,死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故51.91%、其他事故17.21%、矿业事故15.03%、火灾8.56%、爆炸事故4.55%、泄露中毒2.73%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故47.41%、泄露中毒19.09%、爆炸事故13.99%、其他事故8.23%,、矿业事故7.82%、火灾3.46%.     

2006年中国城市饮用水源突发污染事件统计及分析

统计分析了我国2006年1月1日至12月31日发生的城市饮用水源突发污染事件,以揭示2005年松花江污染和哈尔滨停水重大事件之后,中国城市水源突发污染事件发生的规律、危害、应急响应状况以及总体情况和变化趋势,检验近1年来中国城市水源突发污染事件应急机制的有效性和科学性.从发生日期、地点、污染物种类、事件简况、应急反应5个方面对75起突发污染事件的统计分析表明:1)2006年突发污染事件总体呈数量增多、危害增大的趋势;2)危险化学品和各类工业污水仍是主要污染物;3)交通事故、工厂泄漏事故和突然排污仍是主要风险源;4)41.3%的事件威胁到了城市供水系统安全运行,造成城市几小时或多天停水,带来严重的社会影响;5)92%的突发污染事件得到了应急响应,但应急时间远大于国家规定的1h,应急预案在快速性和有效性方面还需改进.     

(火用)分析法在企业清洁生产实践中的应用

阐述清洁生产、节能降耗与可持续发展的关系,介绍一种比传统热能分析方法更加全面的、将能量的"质"与"量"相结合的能量评价法--(火用)分析法,阐明了(火用)的概念及基本分析原理、分析方法,并举例采用"黑箱-灰箱"模型进行能量(火用)分析,提出将(火用)分析法应用于企业清洁生产的实践中,帮助企业找出真正的耗能点,以采取有效措施达到节能降耗的目的.     

2015年3-4月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年3-4月国内发生的各种生产安全事故130起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在130起事故中,交通事故占68.46％,矿业事故占7.69％,爆炸事故占1.54％,火灾占5.38％,毒物泄漏与中毒占5.38％,其他事故占11.54％.130起事故共死亡532人,伤108人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故65.79％,矿业事故11.65％,爆炸事故1.32％,火灾5.64％,毒物泄漏与中毒4.51％,其他事故11.09％;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故81.48％,矿业事故0.93％,爆炸事故3.70％,火灾2.78％,毒物泄漏与中毒7.41％,其他事故3.70％.2015年3-4月生产安全事故发生较多的5个省、自治区分别为广东(17起)、云南(15起)、广西(10起)、安徽(10起)、黑龙江(9起);死亡人数较多的5个省分别为云南(65人)、广东(59人)、浙江(42人)、山西(40人)、安徽(39人);受伤人数较多的5个省、自治区分别为福建(24人)、内蒙古(15人)、广东(11人)、广西(10人)、云南(7人).     

2015年7-8月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年7-8月国内发生的各种生产安全事故143起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在143起事故中,交通事故占66.43％,矿业事故占5.60％,爆炸事故占2.80％,火灾占4.90％,毒物泄漏与中毒占6.99％,其他事故占13.29％.143起事故共死亡770入.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故49.74％,矿业事故5.06％,爆炸事故25.32％,火灾3.51％,毒物泄漏与中毒4.55％,其他事故11.82％.2015年7-8月生产安全事故发生较多的6个省分别为广东(21起)、云南(12起)、安徽(8起)、江西(7起)、湖南(7起)和黑龙江(7起);死亡人数较多的6个省、市分别为天津(165人)、广东(75人)、云南(46人)、安徽(32人)、江西(29人)和黑龙江(29人).     

小风条件下大气扩散模式发展回顾研究

由于小风对污染事件的潜在影响,以及与中等风速和大风条件相比边界层结构、湍流和扩散的特殊性,常规的稳态高斯烟流模式在这种条件下具有局限性,建立适用于小风条件的大气扩散模式具有重要的理论和实际意义。本文回顾了近年来小风条件下大气扩散模式的建立和发展,从较简单的解析模式到复杂的数值模式,并对不同模式的参数化方案、与示踪物实验的比较结果、适用性和不足之处进行了总结。综合考虑不同模式的优劣,在应用方面有利于根据实际情况选择合适的模式,在模式开发方面,有助于建立更加完备的大气扩散模式。     

Evaluating the Impacts of Environmental Flow Alternatives on Reservoir and Recreational Operations Using System Dynamics Modeling

Providing environmental flows is increasingly a management obligation in many water resource systems. Evaluating the impacts of environmental flow alternatives on other water uses in a basin can be a challenge, especially when collaborating with stakeholders. We demonstrate the use of system dynamics (SD) modeling to assess the impacts of four environmental flow alternatives in the Rio Chama, New Mexico. The model was developed to examine impacts of each alternative on reservoir storage and releases, hydropower production and revenue, and whitewater boating access. We simulated each alternative within a stochastic framework in order to explicitly incorporate hydrologic uncertainty into the analyses. The environmental flow alternatives were developed at a collaborative workshop of geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology experts. Results from the model indicate that the proposed flow recommendations on the Rio Chama will generally decrease annual reservoir storage, increase median flows, and have minimal impacts on hydropower production and whitewater rafting on the system. The Rio Chama case study is a promising example of how SD modeling can be used in the early stages of environmental flow studies and why it is compatible with collaborative modeling.     

Climate Trends but Little Net Water Supply Shift in One of Canada's Most Water‐Stressed Regions over the Last Century

The southern interior ecoprovince (SIE) of British Columbia, Canada represents the northernmost extent of the great western North American deserts, it is experiencing some of the nation's fastest economic and population growth making it one of Canada's most water‐stressed regions, and it includes two headwater basins of the transboundary (Canada‐US) Columbia River. Statistical trend analyses were performed on 90‐year regional indicator time series for annual conditions in observed temperature, precipitation, and streamflow reflecting the three major SIE river basins: the Thompson, and transboundary Okanagan and Similkameen. Results suggest that regional climate has grown warmer and wetter, but with little net impact on total water supply availability. The outcome might reflect mutual cancellation of increases in precipitation inputs vs. evapotranspiration losses. Conclusions appeared largely insensitive to low‐pass data filtering, Pacific Decadal Oscillation effects, or solar output variability. Ensemble historical global climate model runs over the same time interval support this absence of appreciable trend in regionally integrated annual runoff volume, but a possible mismatch in precipitation results suggests a direction for further study. Overall, while important changes in hydrologic timing and extremes are likely occurring here, there is limited evidence for a net change in overall water supply availability over the last century.