生活污水典型有机污染物与ASMs模型水质特性参数相关性研究

研究了生活污水中典型有机污染物糖类、蛋白质、油脂以及直链烷基苯磺酸钠（LAS）对生活污水中COD的贡献率,采用硝酸盐利用速率法（NUR）测定了活性污泥数学模型（ASMs）中的有机水质特性参数,分析了单一糖类、蛋白质、油脂、LAS对有机水质特性参数的影响,并给出了生活污水中这4种有机污染物与ASMs有机水质特性参数S_S、X_S、S_I、X_I的相关关系.结果表明,反硝化条件下异养菌产率系数为0.683;蛋白质、糖类、油脂和LAS分别占COD的24%～35%、 17%～35%、 5.78%～10.56%和 3.77%～7.23%,是污水中COD的主要化学组成成分;该污水中的快速生物降解物质占总COD的22%～29%,慢速可生物降解物质占29%～38%;生活污水中糖类、蛋白质、油脂、LAS这4种典型有机物的浓度与ASMs的水质特性参数S_S、X_S、S_I、X_I的相关性较好,相关系数>0.9.     

小尺度范围内植被类型对土壤呼吸的影响

2005~2007年用红外气体分析仪在太原天龙山自然保护区对油松、草地和灌木地的土壤呼吸进行了测定.结果表明,3个样地的土壤呼吸具有明显的季节变化特点,夏秋季高、冬春季低.土壤呼吸的年(3~12月)平均值分别为(3.58±2.50)、(3.82±2.75)和(4.42±3.38)μmol.(m2.s)-1(p0.05).3~12月土壤CO2释放量在854.9~1 297.2 g.(m2.a)-1之间,年间和样地之间的土壤CO2释放量均无显著差异.3个样地土壤呼吸与土壤温度的指数方程均为极显著(p0.01),R2值在0.61~0.81之间;Q10值在2.60~4.50之间,R10值在1.70~3.02μmol.(m2.s)-1之间.3种植被条件下土壤呼吸与土壤水分的关系均不显著(p0.05),最大的R2值仅0.12;但是,用土壤温度10℃时的数据进行分析时,土壤呼吸与土壤水分的关系显著(p0.05).4个双变量复合关系方程的R2值大部分在0.7以上,最高达0.91.     

Debt for brands: tracking down a bias in financing photovoltaic projects in Germany

What kinds of PV project configurations do lenders prefer to finance? Recent developments in the field of renewable energy project finance have reinforced the need for investigation, as fundraising has become more challenging and project evaluation by banks more demanding. To contribute to the limited research in this field, we focus on photovoltaic projects and report from an Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint experiment with German experts in project finance. We find a bias which we call “debt for brands”. Simulations reveal that debt investors prefer projects with premium brand technology (modules, inverters) to low-cost technology. Although we assumed that lenders prefer projects with the highest Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR), they favor projects with lower DSCR, as long as those projects include premium brand technology. We find that, if premium brands were engaged, lenders would also choose projects with higher risk. Our findings have implications for renewable energy project finance in practice and research.     

2015年7-8月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2015年7-8月国内发生的各种生产安全事故143起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在143起事故中,交通事故占66.43％,矿业事故占5.60％,爆炸事故占2.80％,火灾占4.90％,毒物泄漏与中毒占6.99％,其他事故占13.29％.143起事故共死亡770入.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故49.74％,矿业事故5.06％,爆炸事故25.32％,火灾3.51％,毒物泄漏与中毒4.55％,其他事故11.82％.2015年7-8月生产安全事故发生较多的6个省分别为广东(21起)、云南(12起)、安徽(8起)、江西(7起)、湖南(7起)和黑龙江(7起);死亡人数较多的6个省、市分别为天津(165人)、广东(75人)、云南(46人)、安徽(32人)、江西(29人)和黑龙江(29人).     

Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes

Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions.     

The potential of statistical state space models in urban ozone forecasting

State space models for tropospheric urban ozone prediction are introduced and compared with linear regression models. The linear and non-linear state space models make accurate short-term predictions of the ozone dynamics. The average prediction error one hour in advance is 7 μg/m³ and increases logarithmically with time until it reaches 26 μg/m³ after 30 days. For a given sequence of solar radiation inputs, predictions converge exponentially with a time scale of 8 hours, so that the model is insensitive to perturbations of more than 150 μg/m³ O₃. The slow increase of the prediction error in addition to the uniqueness of the prediction are encouraging for applications of state space models in forecasting ozone levels when coupled with a model that predicts total radiation. Since a radiation prediction model will be more accurate during cloud-free conditions, in addition to the fact that the state space models perform better during the summer months, state space models are suitable for applications in sunny environments.     

The effect of urban quality improvements on economic activity

This paper is concerned with the link between urban quality improvements and economic activity. A key question is whether improvements in the urban environment which might be achieved, for instance, through pedestrianisation, will affect business location choices - for example, are office or retail businesses particularly keen to locate in more pleasant urban places? The paper outlines the current state of development of the literature with respect to the influence of urban quality on economic activity, and proposes a framework for forecasting economic impacts based on three communities of reference: customers, employees, and the businesses themselves. The results from original modelling of a case study area in Manchester, England are reported and suggest that the positive uplifts that may be expected from environmental improvement programmes may well be on a scale which is significant. The research is obviously important for the urban regeneration and renaissance agendas which posit attractive and well-designed environments as a way to create the right conditions for promoting economic growth.     

土地市场发展的经济驱动机制:理论与实证分析

探讨中国土地市场发展的经济驱动机制对于促进土地市场的有序发展意义重大。本文提出了一个土地市场发展的经济驱动机制框架,然后以此为基础从理论上分析我国土地市场发展的经济驱动因素,并结合计量经济模型的构建进行相应的实证检验。结果表明,无论是土地一级市场还是土地二级市场,影响土地供求的因素都是中国土地市场发展的驱动要素,而土地市场环境和制度政策则会对土地市场的发展起到抑制或加速作用。因此,对于今后中国土地市场的有序发展,宜从提高土地一级市场市场化程度、优化产业结构、提升城镇化质量等方面展开。     

新冠疫情背景下建筑从业人员统计生命价值研究

为研究建筑职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的统计生命价值(VOSL),以成都市建筑从业者为对象采集数据,基于生存分析处理删失数据的特性,运用二分式条件价值法(CVM)和Kaplan-Meier法测算不同背景下的VOSL,运用COX回归对VOSL影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明：成都市建筑从业者在职业风险和新冠疫情风险下的VOSL分别为429.472,459.079万元,生命价值评估具有情境依赖性且存在“引导悖论”;2种风险背景下受访者学历、月收入及安全重视程度的提高均会增强支付意愿,而安全满意程度的提高则会降低支付意愿;职业风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为安全设备保障满意程度、重视程度和学历,新冠疫情风险下影响支付意愿的关键因素为卫生安全重视程度、学历和月收入。     

State-of-the-art of ecological modelling with emphasis on development of structural dynamic models

The paper deals with two major problems in ecological modelling today, namely how to get reliable parameters? and how to build ecosystem properties into our models? The use of new mathematical tools to answer these questions is mentioned briefly, but the main focus of the paper is on development of structural dynamic models which are models using goal functions to reflect a current change of the properties of the biological components in the models. These changes of the properties are due to the enormous adaptability of the biological components to the prevailing conditions. All species in an ecosystem attempt to obtain most biomass, i.e. to move as far away as possible from thermodynamic equilibrium which can be measured by the thermodynamic concept exergy. Consequently, exergy has been proposed as a goal function in ecological models with dynamic structure, meaning currently changed properties of the biological components and in model language currently changed parameters. An equation to compute an exergy index of a model is presented. The theoretical considerations leading to this equation are not presented here but references to literature where the basis theory can be found are given. Two case studies of structural dynamic modelling are presented: a shallow lake where the structural dynamic changes have been determined before the model was developed, and the application of biomanipulation in lake management, where the structural dynamic changes are generally known. Moreover. it is also discussed how the same idea of using exergy as a goal function in ecological modelling may be applied to facilitate the estimation of parameters.