Effectiveness of Multi‐Site Weather Generator for Hydrological Modeling1

Khalili, Malika, François Brissette, and Robert Leconte, 2011. Effectiveness of Multi‐site Weather Generator for Hydrological Modeling. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00514.x Abstract: A multi‐site weather generator has been developed using the concept of spatial autocorrelation. The multi‐site generation approach reproduces the spatial autocorrelations observed between a set of weather stations as well as the correlations between each pair of stations. Its performance has been assessed in two previous studies using both precipitation and temperature data. The main objective of this paper is to assess the efficiency of this multi‐site weather generator compared to a uni‐site generator with respect to hydrological modeling. A hydrological model, known as Hydrotel, was applied over the Chute du Diable watershed, located in the Canadian province of Quebec. The distributed nature of Hydrotel accounts for the spatial variations throughout the watershed, and thus allows a more in‐depth assessment of the effect of spatially dependent meteorological input on runoff generation. Simulated streamflows using both the multi‐site and uni‐site generated weather data were statistically compared to flows modeled using observed data. Overall, the hydrological modeling using the multi‐site weather generator significantly outperformed that using the uni‐site generator. This latter combined to Hydrotel resulted in a significant underestimation of extreme streamflows in all seasons.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTRATROPICAL STORMINESS IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide is projected to change the circulation of the atmosphere, increase its moisture content, warm the surface layers, and increase precipitation. Extratropical storms are the intermediate agent in mid-latitudes between changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and surface water resources. The climatology of extratropical storms for the period 1885–1996 is presented, and major changes in storminess are detected across much of North America. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of storm frequency and storm track are found to have little in common with the observed pattern of storms and evidence no systematic changes in response to an enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.     

Construction of evolving models for the environmental evaluation of innovative sub-systems based on a hierarchical agglomerative clustering

This paper deals with simplifying the environmental evaluation of an innovative sub-system related to the future complex system that will include it, by using evolving generic models built on a limited number of characteristics. For a complex system range, the evolving approach of the environmental modelling aims to generate a learning dynamics, to avoid the paralysing complexity induced in design by the valuation of many components according to many impact categories. Applied to the automotive sector, dendrograms are made with results of life cycle assessments (LCA) of 17 vehicles for 4 environmental indicators and on 3 life cycle steps. In an iterative process, a limit condition threshold on the resulting relative errors aims to cluster the vehicles. First, several calculation methods of dendrograms are tested. Second, the influence of the limit condition on the models is observed. Lastly, by simulating the vehicle population increase, the modelling capacity to evolve is tested. Five vehicle characteristics are sufficient to identify a model to be equivalent to the future vehicle. While the number of clusters is increased to simplify their identification with the system characteristics, the relative error variability increases too. The generic models are stable when adding LCA's results.     

Antibacterial activity of different natural honeys from Transylvania,Romania

Honey is used in food industry and medicine due to its nutritive, therapeutic and dietetic qualities. The microbiological characteristics of 10 unpasteurized honey samples of known origin, collected from Transylvania beekeepers (Romania) were determined. The antibacterial activity of these types of honey against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermidis, Salmonella enteritidis, Salmonella anatum, Salmonella choleraesuis, Bacillus cereus, Bacillus subtilis subsp. spizizenii and Listeria monocytogenes strains was studied. The most sensitive to the antibacterial activity were the two staphylococus strains (the largest diameter of inhibition zone was 18 mm) and B. subtilis strains (13.5 mm). The strains of B. cereus, E. coli, L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. were found to present resistance to some of the honey samples. Manna, sunflower and polyfloral honeys presented high antibacterial activity while acacia and linden honeys had a lower activity in terms of the number of sensible strains. Statistical analysis shows that the type of strains and the type of honey have influence on the diameter of inhibition.     

Models of taiga-steppe communities on the western coast of Lake Baikal

As a result of monitoring spatial changes in the cenotic structure of plant communities at the taiga-extrazonal steppe boundary on the western coast of Lake Baikal, models of taiga-steppe communities reflecting the formation, dynamics, and genesis of forests in the taiga zone have been constructed. Changes in the species composition of communities, mesophytization of steppes, the expansion of moss synusiae characteristic of polydominant dark conifer and light conifer taiga forests, active forest invasion into steppe areas, and the presence of dark conifer tree species in light conifer forests have been revealed.     

A lagrangian dispersion model for calculating concentration distribution within a built-up domain

A Lagrangian model to study the dispersion of pollutants between urban buildings is described. The flow field is supplied by an objective analysis (Rockle (1990) Ph.D. thesis, Vom Fachbereich Mechanik, der Technischen Hochschule Darmstadt, Germany) and is adjusted to satisfy the continuity equation. From the resulting; mass consistent field the Lagrangian diffusion parameters are eliminated. A 3-D Lagrangian diffusion model in a nonhomogeneous field is applied to calculate the pollutant distribution between the buildings. Several examples are studied and compared to wind tunnel measurements.     

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

Abstract:  Implemented in 1994, the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan was designed to restore and maintain ecological processes for aquatic and riparian area conservation on federal lands in the western portion of the Pacific Northwest. We used decision support models to quantitatively evaluate changes in the condition of selected watersheds. In the approximately 10 years since strategy implementation, watershed condition scores changed modestly, but conditions improved in 64% of 250 sampled watersheds, declined in 28%, and remained relatively the same in 7%. Watersheds that had the largest declines included some where wildfires burned 30–60% of their area. The overall statistical distribution of the condition scores did not change significantly, however. Much of the increase in watershed condition was related to improved riparian conditions. The number of large trees (>51 cm diameter at breast height) increased 2–4%, and there were substantial reductions in tree harvest and other disturbances along streams. Whether such changes will translate into longer-term improvements in aquatic ecosystems across broader landscapes remains to be seen.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

COMPUTER-AIDED PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE-PURPOSE RESERVOIR OPERATING POLICIES1

ABSTRACT: Computer-aided planning (CAP) for multiple-purpose reservoir operations involves use of state-of-the-art simulation and optimization methods, color graphic displays, and interactive computing interfaces. These technologies were integrated into a coherent system that has user-friendly interfaces to help the process of communicating reservoir system operations, solicit planning participant preferences and valuation judgments, and provide understandable feedback of system performance. The CAP system was imbedded in a comprehensive public involvement program that paralleled the reservoir operating policy modeling process, as part of multipurpose reservoir operations planning on the Great Plains Reservoirs in Colorado. Experience with the approach indicates the involved publics can quickly learn of reservoir system limitations and opportunities, and can indeed participate in the operations planning process.     

PLANNING METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT ON LAKE EUTROPHICATION1

ABSTRACT: The effects of changing nutrient inputs through land use management, waste water treatment, or effluent diversion are not clear, and managers are discovering that decisions which were effective in reversing eutrophication for one lake are often unsuccessful when applied to another. Simple empirical relationships are often used to predict the impact of management decisions. Errors in estimation could result in either substantial costs for overdesign or failure to meet desired eutrophication levels. This paper presents and illustrates a methodology to evaluate the impact of land use and water resource management decisions on lake eutrophication. The problems of worth of additional information, and uncertainty of estimates were handled within a cost-effectiveness framework. The probability of exceeding a critical level of eutrophication was considered as a measure of effectiveness. The cost criterion is the expected value of opportunity costs, costs of analysis and costs of additional information. Uncertainty analysis techniques were used to estimate the effectiveness of various management alternatives. Bayesian methods can be utilized to determine the worth of additional information. The methodology was applied to Beseck Lake, Connecticut, and the cost and effectiveness measures estimated for a number of land management alternatives. Worth of additional information was not determined in this initial effort in uncertainty analysis for lake eutrophication management.