STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-AGGREGATED HYDROLOGIC DATA1

Stochastic models fitted to hydrologic data of different time scales are interrelated because the higher time scale data (aggregated data) are derived from those of lower time scale. Relationships between the statistical properties and parameters of models of aggregated data and of original data are examined in this paper. It is also shown that the aggregated data can be more accurately predicted by using a valid model of the original data than by using a valid model of the aggregated data. This property is particularly important in forecasting annual values because only a few annual values are usually available and the resulting forecasts are relatively inaccurate if models based only on annual data are used. The relationships and forecasting equations are developed for general aggregation time and can be used for hourly and daily, daily and monthly or monthly and yearly data. The method is illustrated by using monthly and yearly streamflow data. The results indicate that various statistical characteristics and parameters of the model of annual data can be accurately estimated by using the monthly data and forecasts of annual data by using monthly models have smaller one step ahead mean square error than those obtained by using annual data models.     

RADIUM - 226 IN GROUND WATER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Principal U.S. phosphate production is from central Florida where mining, processing, and waste disposal practices intimately associate the industry with water resouces. Available radium-226 data from 1966 and from 1973–1976 in mined and unmined mincralized areas and nonmineralized areas in the primary study area in Polk, Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, and De Soto counties were studied using log-normal probability plots and nonparametric statistical tests for significant difference as functions of time, depth, and location. Plots of radium in the water table and Floridan aquifers for mineralized and nonmineralized areas indicate that neither phosphate mineralization nor the industry is a probable factor. For the Lower Floridan aquifer, three separate radium populations are indicated with geometric means of 0.7, 3, and 10 pCi/1. Geometric mean radium-226 content of the water table aquifer is 0.17 pCi/1. Radium in the Floridan aquifer in Manatee and Sarasota Counties is elevated relative to that in the water table and in other areas of Florida. For Sarasota County, geometric mean radium content of the water table is 15 pCi/l versus 7.5 pCi/l in the Floridan. Potential sources include shallow phosphate sediments and monazite sands and possibly crystalline basement rocks or other strata unrelated to phosphatic zones of current economic interest. The existing radium-226 data base is rather marginal in terms of number and spatial distribution of analyses, particularly for the water table and Upper Floridan aquifer. Existing radium data do not substantiate widespread contamination of ground water as a result of the phosphate industry. However, local contamination associated with specific operations has occurred.     

多介质环境循环模型的研究进展

多介质环境模型是８０年代发展起来的新型环境数学模型，它将各种不同环境介质单元同导致污染物跨过介质间交界面的各种过程相连接，对污染物的过程，迁移和归趋进行模拟，对环境影响的早期评价、化学品的环境暴露和安全管理具有重要的意义。本文就多介质环境数学模型的基本理论、研究现状、应用前景和发展趋势作了综述和展望，并提出了值得开展研究的若干前沿课题。文章还给出５幅图解和约１００篇参考文献。     

黑河上中游水质时空分异特征及污染源解析

在黑河上中游主要河道设置33个水样监测点,分别于2017年5月（平水期）、8月（丰水期）、12月（枯水期）进行水质调查,运用GIS和水质标识指数法对水环境质量进行评价,并采用多元统计的方法分析了水质时空分布特征及潜在污染物来源.结果表明：区域内水质类别以Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类为主,并具有一定的时空分异性.时间上水体污染程度表现为枯水期 > 平水期 > 丰水期,空间上表现为上游支流区 > 上游干流区 > 中游.依据土地利用类型将33个采样点划分为放牧与工矿企业用地（A组）、水库建设用地（B组）和农业与城镇人居用地（C组）.结合因子分析和主成分回归分析得出,NH₃-N、BOD₅和COD_Mn是该区域的典型污染物,其中A组污染源主要来自于有机物,其次是营养盐;B组水体主要受到机物和营养物的蓄积污染,而自然因素的影响相对较弱;C组主要是生物化学污染,其次为非点源营养盐污染.研究表明,人类活动依然是影响水质变差的主要因素,虽然大坝的拦截效应能改善下泄水质,但常年累积于库底的沉积物随环境变化有二次污染的潜在风险,如沉积物中营养盐的活化释放等问题.     

黄河源植被时空变化及其对地形和气候的响应

基于2000~2019年MODIS归一化植被指数（NDVI）遥感数据,辅以同期气温、降水和地形数据,通过最大值合成、趋势分析及相关分析法,分析了黄河源区植被的时空变化特征及其对地形和气候变化的响应.结果表明：黄河源区植被NDVI整体处于中高水平,但空间差异显著,呈现由东南向西北递减的空间分布格局;近20a来,植被总体上呈现出变好的趋势.植被对高程和坡度响应明显,随着高程的增加,植被NDVI呈现先增加后减少的趋势,但在3500~4100m区间植被NDVI变化不显著;此外,植被NDVI随着坡度的增大呈现出先增大后减小的变化趋势,且在24~26°坡度带植被NDVI达到最大值.黄河源区植被受气温和降水的共同影响,与降水相比,气温对黄河源区植被变化的影响更为显著.     

Reverse logistics network design: a conceptual framework for decision making

Reverse logistics play a significantly increased role in supply chains. Producers are incorporating reverse logistics into their supply chain design because of governmental legislation, economic benefits from product recovery, and customers' demands for better environmental practices. Motivated producers face two main challenges in reverse logistics network design: (1) how do you build product recovery activities into traditional forward logistics networks? and (2) how do you manage the impact of uncertainty in the reverse logistics supply chain? Moreover, producers need to consider many tradeoffs leading to efficient network design. Published case studies have discussed these tradeoffs, and we describe a framework to evaluate these tradeoff considerations. We then apply the framework to three new case studies: medical device refurbishing, municipal e‐waste recycling, and carpet fibre recycling.     

ATRAZINE AND METOLACHLOR OCCURRENCE IN SHALLOW GROUND WATER OF THE UNITED STATES, 1993 TO 1995: RELATIONS TO EXPLANATORY FACTORS1

ABSTRACT: Since 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey has been conducting the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to determine the quality of the Nation's water resources. In an effort to obtain a better understanding of why pesticides are found in shallow ground water on a national scale, a set of factors likely to affect the fate and transport of two herbicides in the subsurface were examined. Atrazine and metolachlor were selected for this discussion because they were among the most frequently detected pesticides in ground water during the first phase of the NAWQA Program (1993 to 1995), and each was the most frequently detected compound in its chemical class (triazines and acetanilides, respectively). The factors that most strongly correlated with the frequencies of atrazine detection in shallow ground‐water networks were those that provided either: (1) an indication of the potential susceptibility of ground water to atrazine contamination, or (2) an indication of relative ground‐water age. The factors most closely related to the frequencies of metolachlor detection in ground water, however, were those that estimated or indicated the intensity of the agricultural use of metolachlor. This difference is probably the result of detailed use estimates for these compounds being available only for agricultural settings. While atrazine use is relatively extensive in nonagricultural settings, in addition to its widespread agricultural use, metolachlor is used almost exclusively for agricultural purposes. As a result, estimates of agricultural applications provide a less reliable indication of total chemical use for atrazine than for metolachlor. A multivariate analysis demonstrated that the factors of interest explained about 50 percent of the variance in atrazine and metolachlor detection frequencies among the NAWQA land‐use studies examined. The inclusion of other factors related to pesticide fate and transport in ground water, or improvements in the quality and accuracy of the data employed for the factors examined, may help explain more of the remaining variance in the frequencies of atrazine and metolachlor detection.     

地铁施工事故统计分析与研究*

为了解我国城市地铁施工事故规律特征,降低新建地铁线路施工事故发生频率,统计分析2011—2020年全国31个省市自治区（不包括港澳台）地铁施工事故,归纳事故发生时间、事故类型、施工工法的分布特征,基于灰色关联分析法（GRA）对地铁施工事故致因进行分析。研究结果表明:地铁施工事故季节性特征突出,3,8,11月份呈多发态势;科学技术进步和规章制度完善是保证我国轨道交通运营里程高速增长和施工事故率降低的有效手段;事故类型以坍塌为主,且事故造成影响最大;违章作业、设备设施缺陷、地质环境不良和安全监管未贯彻落实分别为“人、物、环、管”4个维度的关键致因因子。     

云南电网地质灾害易损性评估与区划

云南电网几乎覆盖云南全境,已有的灾害历史表明：地质灾害可以导致电网设备产生物理性损伤,致使电网不能正常运行,甚至产生连锁反应,造成局部电网瘫痪.目前国内学者在电力系统易损性领域的研究还处于起步阶段,尚无应用广泛的规范性易损性评价模型.围绕云南电网地质灾害易损性评估,提出了基于内生易损性和外因易损性的电网地质灾害易损性评估方法;采用统计分析方法,以云南电网本身健康指数和历史地质灾害资料为依据,通过从内生易损性和外因易损性对云南各市（州）局电网进行了地质灾害易损性评估;按四级分区法绘制了云南电网地质灾害易损性区划图.研究结果表明,云南省作为地质灾害多发易发省份,云南电网有43.75％部分处于地质灾害高易损性等级以上,电网的安全运行受到较严重的威胁,分析结果可为云南电网地质灾害防灾减灾管理等提供参考依据.     

A Whole Body Postural Loading Simulation and Assessment Model for Workplace Analysis and Design

Abstract

This study reports on the development and validation of a new computer model for simulating human postures at work, and assessing the reaction forces and bending moments in 43 human articulation joints. The proposed model estimates the intradiscal pressure in the vertebral column in response to external loading forces encountered during human interactions with work objects or processes. The model was implemented in a self-contained interactive software package. The simulation results compare favorably with the reported experimental data, and provide reasonable confidence in the quality of the model. Its characteristics and its applications in evaluating physical task performance are also discussed