THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL TO EVALUATE HYDROLOGIC RISK IN WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM DESIGN1

In this paper, a procedure for analyzing a water resource system with special emphasis on evaluation of acceptable economic risk due to occasional failures to deliver water is proposed. The basic methodology includes the development of a simple mathematical model which describes the physical hydrologic and economic characteristics of a single reservoir irrigation and city water supply system and an evaluation of economic benefits of the system with full and partial deliveries of water. The system is simulated for various combinations of decision variables (system magnitudes) and an optimum design is obtained by response surface technology. Emphasis is placed on the basic model and methodology although, in order to introduce some realism, the procedure is applied to data based on the existing reservoir system on the South Concho River in West Central Texas.     

WATER SUPPLY AND WASTEWATER DISPOSAL IN RURAL AREAS OF INDIA1

ABSTRACT: Piped water supply and sewerage have been taken almost for granted in the developed countries. However, most people in the United States have little knowledge of the condition of public health amenities in the developing countries. The paper reviews the importance, background and current status of water and wastewater facilities in India. The relative situation in urban and rural areas, conventional practices in environmental hygiene, the programs for improvement and the problems involved with possible solutions are given. The case history of a town is also included for illustrative purposes.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

Current and Future Strategies for Water and Wastewater Management of Istanbul City

Istanbul has experienced rapid increases in population to more than 12 million people, which has created infrastructure problems of water supply and wastewater treatment and disposal. In this article, the achievements and approaches of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration (ISKI) to solve the water shortage problem and to improve services are summarized. Istanbul had a very severe water shortage problem in 1994 because of ignorance of the implementation of the needed projects. After reviewing the reasons and causes of the problem, new priority criteria adopted after 1994 are given. Following the implementation of the projects determined according to the aforementioned criteria, water supplied has exceeded the water demand. The added capacity is equal to one to three times of the capacity built up to 1994 for water treatment, service reservoirs, pumping stations, transmission lines, and the water distribution network; water quality has been improved the meet local and international potable water standards. Unaccounted for water has been reduced from 60% to 27%. The percentage of treated wastewater has been increased from 10% to 90% in 8 years, resulting in drastic improvements and rehabilitation of the Golden Horn and coastal water quality. Through improved customer services, complaints were reduced from 33% in 1994 to 0.3%. Some of the main criteria and the approaches behind this success are summarized. Published online     

The Truth about Public Health Protection and Community Sewerage and Water Supply Sanitation in Developing Countries

Since the establishment, following World War II, of the World System, by which the affluent industrialized countries established various international assistance agencies (including the multilateral development banks, UN affiliates, and Bilaterals), these assistance agencies have invested very large sums in helping finance planning and construction of community sewerage and water supply facilities in the developing countries. However, much of this large investment has been ineffective and wasted, primarily because of the lack of understanding by the staff of the assistance agencies that the design criteria for the facilities must be modified to suit the socio-economic status of the developing country. The developing countries are relatively very poor in terms of available finances, hence cannot afford to emulate Western environmental standards and design practices, especially as related to operation and maintenance, hence much simpler approaches must be used. Experiences in several Asian countries are discussed, and a recommendation is made on how to go about resolving this problem.     

Components of the Total Water Balance of an Urban Catchment

A daily model was used to quantify the components of the total urban water balance of the Curtin catchment, Canberra, Australia. For this catchment, the mean annual rainfall was found to be three times greater than imported potable water, and the sum of the output from the separate stormwater and wastewater systems exceeded the input of imported potable water by some 50%. Seasonal and annual variations in climate exert a very strong influence over the relative magnitude of the water balance components; this needs to be accounted for when assessing the potential for utilizing stormwater and wastewater within an urban catchment.     

The Concept of Habitat Diversity Between and Within Ecosystems Applied to River Side-Arm Restoration

Since returning an ecosystem to its pristine state may not be realistic in every situation, the concept of habitat diversity is proposed to help decision-makers in defining realistic restoration objectives. In order to maintain habitat diversity and enhance the long-term success of restoration, process-oriented projects should be preferred to species-oriented ones. Because the hydrogeomorphological processes that influence biodiversity operate at different spatiotemporal scales, three scales are considered: river sectors, floodplain waterbodies, and mesohabitats within each waterbody. Based on a bibliographical review, three major driving forces are proposed for incorporation into the design of restoration projects: (1) flow velocity and flood disturbances, (2) hydrological connectivity, and (3) water supply. On the sector scale, increased habitat diversity between waterbodies can be achieved by combining various intensities of these driving forces. On the waterbody scale, increased habitat diversity within the ecosystem can be achieved by varying water depth, velocity, and substrate. The concept is applied to a Rhône River sector (France) where three terrestrialized side arms will be restored. Two were designed to be flood scoured, one having an additional supply of groundwater, the other being connected to the river at both ends. The third cannot be scoured by floods because of upstream construction and would be supplied by river backflow through a downstream connection. Habitat diversity within the ecosystem is exemplified on one side arm through the design of a sinuous pathway combined with variation of water depth, wetted width, and substrate grain size. Self-colonization of the side arms is expected owing to the restoration of connectivity to upstream sources of potential colonizers.     

关于城市应急供水系统建设的思考

从城市应急供水系统建设的紧迫性和重要性出发,分析了目前我国城市应急供水系统存在的问题和造成城市非常供水的原因。构建了城市应急供水系统的框架,将其分成工程措施和非工程措施两部分,并阐述了工程措施的类型和实施方法,以及非工程措施的各项应急机制,对建立、健全城市应急供水系统进行了探讨。     

船舶安全熵概念的提出及应用

船舶航行安全很大程度上取决于操作者对船舶航行过程中各种信息的把握,信息掌握的多少可作为衡量船舶安全的一个标准。把船舶航行链分为5种信息处理过程,利用信息熵的原理,提出船舶安全熵的概念,并建立了数学模型。根据船舶航行信息过程的具体因素,建立船舶航行安全评价指标体系;利用熵权法确定5种信息单元及其安全因素权重,对船舶航行的安全熵进行计算,可根据评价模型对船舶安全进行有效评价。利用渤海湾船舶M进行验证,其结果发现船员素质安全熵最大。船舶安全熵方法是对船舶安全评估的一种新探索。     

基于模糊聚类的马氏链模型在交通事故预测中的应用

运用模糊聚类分析方法,借助于MATLAB软件,对中国31个地区交通事故的危害程度进行动态分类和综合评价。根据中国1999—2005年31个地区的交通事故4个指标和5个社会经济因素数据,把31个地区分为3类,即轻灾区、较重灾区、重灾区;其中浙江、福建与宁夏的交通事故危害严重,上海、北京与天津的交通状况正在好转,这与客观实际符合。根据模糊聚类的结果,求得交通事故状态转移概率矩阵,利用马氏链模型可预测未来31个地区的交通事故发展趋势。