Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.     

二英类污染物生物分析方法研究进展

二英类物质具有致癌、致畸等毒理及健康效应.我国二英类物质污染源较多,分布较为广泛,因此二英监测任务十分紧迫.但是我国二英实验室相对较少,单纯的仪器分析方法不能满足监测需求,因此急需发展经济、简便、快速的生物检测方法.生物检测方法主要包含免疫类检测方法和基于芳香烃受体(AhR)信号通路的检测方法,本文着重对这两类生物检测方法的原理和进展等进行综述.     

长江口及邻近海域富营养化趋势分析及与环境因子关系

依据2007-2009年春、夏季在长江口及邻近海域（包括长江口、杭州湾和舟山渔场）的调查监测资料,采用富营养指数法、潜在性富营养化法和有机污染指数法对该海域的富营养化状况、时空分布特征及与环境因子的关系进行了分析评价。富营养指数法计算结果表明：富营养化覆盖比例很高,达到70%以上;在春季,该海域的富营养化程度呈现上升趋势,所占比例从2007年的77.0%上升到2009年的89.8%,在夏季最低达到89.3%,最高到100.0%。3年来,富营养化在春、夏2季基本上处于逐年增加趋势,富营养化趋势越来越明显。在春季富营养指数平面分布呈由近岸向远海逐渐递减的趋势,梯度分布明显,其中,杭州湾富营养化情况较严重;夏季其平面分布与春季类似,但长江口和杭州湾两个水域的富营养指数的等值线都比较密集,夏季的富营养化情况较为严重。潜在性富营养化法计算结果表明：该海域富营养级主要集中在III级（富营养）和V P级（磷中等限制潜在性富营养）;春、夏2季时,长江口V P级所占比例均从0.0%增加到66.7%,受磷限制性富营养化程度越来越高。另外,营养盐结构显示,N/P比值从9.1到50.9,营养盐比例明显不平衡,势必影响浮游生物的生长。有机污染指数法计算结果表明：该海域有机污染指数主要处于5级（重污染）,水质污染严重;长江口春、夏2季5级的比例均从50.0%分别上升到83.3%和100.0%,杭州湾分别从60.0%和80.0%均上升到100.0%;舟山渔场分别从22.2%和66.7上升到66.7%和77.7%,说明受污染程度逐年上升。另外,3年来春、夏2季长江口有机污染指数达5级的占50%以上,杭州湾60%以上,舟山渔场20%以上,杭州湾受污染情况最为严重,其次是长江口,舟山渔场最小。在春、夏2季有机污染平面分布表现为污染程度从西向东、从北向南逐渐降低?     

Effectiveness of Africa's tropical protected areas for maintaining forest cover

The effectiveness of parks for forest conservation is widely debated in Africa, where increasing human pressure, insufficient funding, and lack of management capacity frequently place significant demands on forests. Tropical forests house a substantial portion of the world's remaining biodiversity and are heavily affected by anthropogenic activity. We analyzed park effectiveness at the individual (224 parks) and national (23 countries) level across Africa by comparing the extent of forest loss (as a proxy for deforestation) inside parks to matched unprotected control sites. Although significant geographical variation existed among parks, the majority of African parks had significantly less forest loss within their boundaries (e.g., Mahale Park had 34 times less forest loss within its boundary) than control sites. Accessibility was a significant driver of forest loss. Relatively inaccessible areas had a higher probability (odds ratio >1, p < 0.001) of forest loss but only in ineffective parks, and relatively accessible areas had a higher probability of forest loss but only in effective parks. Smaller parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than larger parks (T = ?2.32, p < 0.05), and older parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than younger parks (F_2,154 = ?4.11, p < 0.001). Our analyses, the first individual and national assessment of park effectiveness across Africa, demonstrated the complexity of factors (such as geographical variation, accessibility, and park size and age) influencing the ability of a park to curb forest loss within its boundaries.     

The difficulties of systematic reviews

The need for robust evidence to support conservation actions has driven the adoption of systematic approaches to research synthesis in ecology. However, applying systematic review to complex or open questions remains challenging, and this task is becoming more difficult as the quantity of scientific literature increases. We drew on the science of linguistics for guidance as to why the process of identifying and sorting information during systematic review remains so labor intensive, and to provide potential solutions. Several linguistic properties of peer‐reviewed corpora—including nonrandom selection of review topics, small‐world properties of semantic networks, and spatiotemporal variation in word meaning—greatly increase the effort needed to complete the systematic review process. Conversely, the resolution of these semantic complexities is a common motivation for narrative reviews, but this process is rarely enacted with the rigor applied during linguistic analysis. Therefore, linguistics provides a unifying framework for understanding some key challenges of systematic review and highlights 2 useful directions for future research. First, in cases where semantic complexity generates barriers to synthesis, ecologists should consider drawing on existing methods—such as natural language processing or the construction of research thesauri and ontologies—that provide tools for mapping and resolving that complexity. These tools could help individual researchers classify research material in a more robust manner and provide valuable guidance for future researchers on that topic. Second, a linguistic perspective highlights that scientific writing is a rich resource worthy of detailed study, an observation that can sometimes be lost during the search for data during systematic review or meta‐analysis. For example, mapping semantic networks can reveal redundancy and complementarity among scientific concepts, leading to new insights and research questions. Consequently, wider adoption of linguistic approaches may facilitate improved rigor and richness in research synthesis.     

环境污染物导致氧化应激的关键信号通路及其检测方法

环境污染物能够以多种途径进入生物体内,在体内产生含氧自由基等活性氧物质,并通过多种信号通路及酶反应引起氧化应激,造成生物体内的脂质过氧化、蛋白质损伤、DNA表达改变、酶失活等,从而引发心血管疾病、风湿类疾病、感染及癌症等的发生。本文对环境污染物致氧化应激产生的原因、涉及的信号通路及酶反应、造成的危害,以及常见的基于细胞模型的氧化应激检测方法进行了综述,期望为评价环境污染物和检测氧化损伤提供参考。     

Toxicity assessing for chlorpyrifos-contaminated soil with three different earthworm test methods

Earthworm toxicity tests are useful tools for terrestrial risk assessment but require a hierarchy of test designs that differ in effect levels (behavior, sublethal, lethal). In this study, the toxicity of chlorpyrifos contaminated soil on earthworms was assessed. In addition to the acute and chronic tests, an avoidance response test was applied. Earthworms were exposed to sublethal and lethal concentration of chlorpyrifos, and evaluated for acute toxicity, growth, fecundity and avoidance response after a certain exposure period. The test methods covered all important ecological relevant endpoints (acute, chronic, behavioral). Concentration of 78.91 mg/kg, chlorpyrifos caused significant toxic effects in all test methods, but at lower test concentrations, only significant chronic toxic effects could be observed. In the present study, chlorpyrifos had adverse effect on growth and fecundity in earthworm exposed to 5 mg/kg chlorpyrifos after eight weeks. The avoidance response test, however, showed significant repellent effects concentration of 40 mg/kg chlorpyrifos. For chlorpyrifos, concentration affecting avoidance response was far greater than growth and fecundity, it seemed likely that earthworms were not able to escape from pesticide-contaminated soil into the clean soil in field and hence were exposed continuously to elevated concentrations of pesticides.     

新型绿色化学反应介质的研究进展

综述了绿色化学在反应介质方面的研究进展。新型的有机合成反应介质主要包括离子液体、超临界流体、水溶剂及微波无溶剂技术。这些新型反应介质不仅可以取代传统的挥发性有毒有害有机溶剂,同时还可提高反应的活性和选择性,加速反应的进行,且有利于催化剂的回收利用及产品的分离。新型绿色化学反应介质是实现有机合成绿色化的重要途径。     

城市环境质量定量评价方法

文章基于对于城市环境质量的评价方法的研究,阐述了各类评价方法的优缺点,着重介绍了物元模型、投影寻踪评价法、神经网络、遗传算法优化神经网络四种定量评价方法,并介绍了各类方法在城市环境质量评价中的应用现状.     

土壤重金属分析方法间检测结果一致性判断方法——数据对t值检验法的改进与完善

不同分析方法测定结果间的比较,或者说如何判断两种分析方法测定结果的一致性,是检测实验室经常遇到的实际问题。其应用场景包括方法标准验证实验、新方法与经典方法间的比对,特别是在缺少标准样品、测试数据不满足t值检验的条件下,选用合适的判据尤其重要。以采用单波长激发型能量色散X射线荧光光谱法、电感耦合等离子体质谱法、波长色散X射线荧光光谱法测定土壤和水系沉积物样品中Cd、As、Pb、Cu、Zn、Ni、Cr、Co、V、Mn、Mo、Sb等重金属含量所得数据为例,探讨了《环境监测分析方法标准制订技术导则》(HJ 168—2020)附录B中规定的"数据对t值检验法"的不足及改进办法,即用数据对相对偏差和再现性限合格率作为判据,判断分析方法测定结果的一致性。对一组验证样品分别用两种分析方法进行了测定,在数据对t值检验的基础上,取各元素测定结果的相对偏差与相关限值进行比较,或者取两者的差值与基准分析方法标准规定的再现性限进行比较,利用合格率大小协助判断了两分析方法测定结果的一致性。研究结果表明,此方法符合日常质控技术规范中关于精密度的规定,实用性强,是一条将数理统计原理与专业知识相结合的合理技术路线。