水平燃料填充床反向阴燃传播及其熄灭分析

根据单步反应机理(仅包括燃料的氧化),建立了一维非稳态燃料填充床反向阴燃的数学模型。通过简化模型参数及大活化能渐近分析,得出了定性描述燃料反向阴燃传播的两个方程。结果表明:随着空气流量的增大,阴燃温度是不断上升的,但由于受到反向空气风流的影响,阴燃温度的增长幅度是逐渐变小的;阴燃传播速度却呈现出先增大后减小直至熄灭的变化趋势。这种变化趋势与前人的实验结果相一致。通过定性分析得出:在气体流量为零的情况下,燃料仍然可以发生阴燃,而维持阴燃不断传播所需要的氧气量源于反应区域周围气体的扩散。此外,也分析了燃料特性参数(如密度、孔隙率、比热、导热系数及活化能)对燃料阴燃温度和阴燃速度传播的影响。     

温度分层环境下火灾烟气羽流上升高度公式分析

对小尺度空间温度分层环境下柴油有焰火及棉绳阴燃火烟气运动进行了实验和数值模拟.结果表明,在分层环境下,烟气与环境空气温度差造成的浮力在某一高度消失并转为负值,致使烟气停止上升而向横向扩展.Morton积分公式低估了烟气羽流上升的最大高度,且在相同出口条件及分层环境下,柴油烟雾比棉绳烟雾下降趋势快,上升高度小,其原因在于积分公式中自相似卷吸及烟气为空气假设.引入烟气密度修正系数和自相似修正系数,对Morton公式进行了修正和讨论.     

釜溪河自贡城区段季节性低氧成因研究

釜溪河为沱江一级支流,在自贡城区段设有国考碳研所断面。收集碳研所断面近10年来水质自动站数据,分析溶解氧(DO)变化特征,采样调查釜溪河自贡城区段水质及河道底泥污染状况,采用相关性分析、数值模拟等,研究分析釜溪河自贡城区段溶解氧分布特征及碳研所断面季节性低氧成因。研究结果表明,碳研所断面的溶解氧质量浓度变化特征呈现春末夏初最低,白天高晚上低的特征。釜溪河碳研所断面河水耗氧类污染物质量浓度较沱江流域内其他断面高,耗氧强度较大,溶解氧质量浓度较沱江流域其他断面偏低;其次,研究河段中釜溪河污水厂以下河段受污水厂低氧水排入和金子凼堰底层低氧水下泄影响,其溶解氧水平整体较污水厂以上河段低;最后,河段底泥有机质含量较高,春夏季气温升高将导致微生物分解活性增强大量消耗溶解氧,同时,闸坝和外来水体排入的水文扰动造成污水厂以下河段水温梯度弱,表层溶解氧易受底层低氧水影响,促使断面形成季节性低氧现象。溶解氧预测模型结果也进一步证实了温度变化和垂向温度梯度弱是碳研所断面溶解氧质量浓度季节性偏低的主要因素。     

Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

生活垃圾堆肥工艺条件及其反应动力学研究

为了改善堆肥微环境 ,提高生活垃圾堆肥速率 ,研究堆肥工艺条件及其反应动力学是非常必要的。通过控制堆肥工艺条件 ,如初始温度、含水率、C/N比及堆料颗粒大小 ,研究生活垃圾堆肥过程中生物、化学及物理因素的变化。试验结果表明 ,生活垃圾堆肥反应符合一级反应动力学 ;合理控制堆肥初始反应条件 ,能明显提高堆肥效率。     

非承重草砖墙体的耐火性能试验分析

为研究草砖房的耐火性能,根据目前使用最多的砖混框架结构草砖房的结构特点,采用尺寸为1 000 mm×480 mm×360 mm草砖砌成宽3 000 mm,高3 000 mm,厚400 mm的非承重的草砖墙体作为试验用构件,利用大型垂直构件耐火试验炉,采用标准火灾升温曲线进行升温,对实体构件进行耐火性能试验。采用K型热电偶记录背火面的温升情况,研究其火灾试验过程中的耐火完整性和耐火隔热性,判断其耐火极限。试验结果表明,非承重草砖墙体具有良好的耐火性能,其耐火极限不低于3.0 h。同时,在这种结构的草砖墙体中,草砖外侧的抹灰层有效地阻挡火灾初期火的侵蚀;钢丝网片有效地起到固定草砖的作用;紧密压实的草砖其内部没有足够的可助燃的氧,且草砖表层暴露于火焰中形成炭化层阻止了火焰进一步向其内部蔓延。     

高速列车运行中火灾状态结构安全分析

为了分析高速列车火灾时在紧急制动以后运行的安全性,选取列车在隧道内运行的场景,通过FDS软件模拟得到火灾后车体内温度场,基于一维热传导理论得到车体结构的温度场分布,在车体结构材料本构中考虑高温对强度及刚度的弱化影响,通过ABAQUS计算列车在最大压缩载荷和拉伸载荷作用下的应力分布和垂向位移。通过分析得到车体大面积温度在500℃左右;最大压缩载荷下车体底架前部构件出现断裂失效,底架中间出现裂纹,中间的垂向位移在42～80 mm之间,最大拉伸载荷下车体损伤略小,车体未出现断裂,底架前部和中间的垂向位移在40～50 mm范围内;底架中间高温是导致断裂失效的最主要原因,在隔热设计中需要对此重点考虑。     

预应力RC梁抗火性能试验研究与有限元分析

为了考察预应力钢绞线张拉控制应力和梁的持荷水平两个因素对无粘结预应力混凝土梁抗火性能的影响,基于 ISO834标准升温曲线,对4根无粘结预应力混凝土梁进行恒载升温试验,同时应用ANSYS有限元软件建立无粘结预应力混 凝土梁有限元模型,进行恒载升温过程的有限元数值模拟。结果表明:有限元计算结果与试验结果符合较好;预应力钢 绞线张拉控制应力越大,预应力损失速度越快,梁变形速率越快,耐火性能越差;梁上作用荷载水平越高,跨中挠度越 大,变形速率越快,耐火极限越小。     

生氧药剂对矿用化学氧自救器生氧温度的影响研究

自救器是矿山井下必须携带的个体防护装置。通过对不同生氧药剂的化学反应热分析、生氧温度的理论计算和实验测试,详细分析了NaO2和KO2药剂生氧温度的高低及变化,得出:在出现相对最高温度之前,NaO2的反应速度及生氧温度明显高于在同时段内KO2的反应速度及生氧温度;但出现相对最高温度之后,NaO2的反应速度及生氧温度迅速衰减,且其衰减速度较KO2的更快。等量KO2药剂较NaO2药剂的反应时间更长一些。建议矿用自救器优选KO2为生氧药剂。