Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

We here examine species distribution models for a Neotropical anuran restricted to ombrophilous areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot. We extend the known occurrence for the treefrog Hypsiboas bischoffi (Anura: Hylidae) through GPS field surveys and use five modeling methods (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, OM-GARP, SVM, and MAXENT) and selected bioclimatic and topographic variables to model the species distribution. Models were first trained using two calibration areas: the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF) and the whole of South America (SA). All modeling methods showed good levels of predictive power and accuracy with mean AUC ranging from 0.77 (BIOCLIM/BAF) to 0.99 (MAXENT/SA). MAXENT and SVM were the most accurate presence-only methods among those tested here. All but the SVM models calibrated with SA predicted larger distribution areas when compared to models calibrated in BAF. OM-GARP dramatically overpredicted the species distribution for the model calibrated in SA, with a predicted area around 10⁶ km² larger than predicted by other SDMs. With increased calibration area (and environmental space), OM-GARP predictions followed changes in the environmental space associated with the increased calibration area, while MAXENT models were more consistent across calibration areas. MAXENT was the only method that retrieved consistent predictions across calibration areas, while allowing for some overprediction, a result that may be relevant for modeling the distribution of other spatially restricted organisms.     

新乡市地表水体HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险评价

为了解新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险,采集新乡市18个地表水样并测定其中HCHs和DDTs的含量,采用概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法评价了HCHs和DDTs的生态风险.结果表明,新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的质量浓度范围分别为1.28~49.2 ng·L-1和0.42~12.3 ng·L-1,与世界各地的地表水中HCHs和DDTs残留质量浓度相比属于中等污染水平.异构体比值表明HCHs污染的主要来源是林丹的使用,而DDTs的残留来源于工业品DDTs的使用.生态风险评价基于DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT的暴露浓度以及相应的毒性数据,概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法均表明了这3种有机氯农药中DDD的风险最大,其次是γ-HCHs,p,p'-DDT的生态风险最小;安全阈值法进一步表明DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT超过影响10%水生生物的概率分别为10.2%、5.94%和0.01%.     

75t/h燃煤锅炉汞迁移转化规律研究

通过对2台75 t/h循环流化床锅炉烟气中汞排放浓度、燃煤和其他固体副产物中的汞含量进行测试,分析了燃煤大气汞的排放因子,并建立了燃煤汞的质量平衡。结果表明:燃煤锅炉中,大部分汞主要存在于烟气和脱硫副产物中,燃烧后进入炉渣、飞灰中的汞含量较少,低于5%。燃煤汞排放去向与脱硫除尘控制技术有关,不同控制技术协同除汞的效果差异较大,而单质汞是燃煤锅炉汞污染防治的重点和难点。     

咸潮预警值设定的研究

为研究咸潮预警,上海某饮用水源地安装了蓝色卫士水质综合预警系统。采用实验室配制人工海水模拟减潮,通过动态实验研究蓝色卫士的成潮预警值。试验证明,成潮预警值设定范围为1．6～1．8较好。经过连续1a自动监测,蓝色卫士共准确预警预报两次成潮,成功保障了该水源地的饮水安全。     

中亚热带马尾松林凋落物分解过程中的微生物与酶活性动态

采用凋落物原位分解法,研究了中亚热带马尾松林中马尾松、槲栎凋落叶单独及混合(自然质量比8∶2)分解过程中的微生物数量与酶活性动态.结果表明:①3类凋落物的年分解常数K的大小为:混合凋落物(0.94)>槲栎凋落物(0.86)>马尾松凋落物(0.67);②3类凋落物真菌数量和微生物数量均在夏季(135 d时)达到最大值,而此时细菌和放线菌数量最低;③3类凋落物纤维素酶活性、酸性磷酸酶活性均与凋落物干重剩余率呈显著正相关(P<0.05),而马尾松与混合型凋落物中的多酚氧化酶活性同凋落物干重剩余率呈极显著负相关(P<0.01);④微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性均总体表现为槲栎凋落物>混合凋落物>马尾松凋落物,酸性磷酸酶活性多表现为槲栎凋落物最低,与分解常数K排列有一定的差异,说明凋落物分解是微生物和多种酶共同作用的结果.整体研究表明,凋落物质量和季节气候的差异显著影响微生物群落及其调控的生态过程,与纯马尾松凋落叶相比,针阔混合使微生物数量和多酚氧化酶活性显著提高,这可能是导致分解加快的重要原因.     

我国区域空气污染治理效率及其影响机制——基于超效率SBM模型和门槛回归模型

随着人民对美好生活需求的日益增长,政府空气污染治理的效率问题日益得到重视。本文从地方政府空气污染治理效率及其影响因素的视角入手,以全国30个省份为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型测算2003—2015年各省级区域的空气污染治理效率。在此基础上,运用门槛回归模型分析政府空气污染治理效率的影响机制。研究表明:①地区间空气污染治理效率差异性较为显著。中部、西部空气污染治理效率整体呈下降趋势。东部和东北地区空气污染治理效率则上升比较平稳。②政策规划、碳源、污染物排放和环境治理投入表现出双重门槛特征,其中碳源对空气污染治理效率影响显著,而以碳为首的能源消费结构则主要对中部和西部空气污染治理效率产生影响。落后地区政府应注重产业升级,财政上应对碳税等税目进行征收,产业上应鼓励企业创新,并对落后企业进行倒逼升级。     

非点源污染河流的水环境容量估算和分配

通过河流相应集水区内氮磷的各污染源分析(包括农地、畜禽养殖和生活排污等),利用输出系数模型估算各非点源的氮磷投(排)放量和入河量;采用河段氮磷输入-输出平衡关系分析方法,估算河流对氮磷的每月自净量.以此为基础,参照水功能区划所要求的水质目标,提出了水质未超标河段相应集水区的氮磷剩余水环境容量按月估算模型,和水质超标河段相应集水区内氮磷投放削减量的按月估算模型,及其在各污染源之间的分配方案.结果表明,长乐江的总氮和总磷自净量分别达到775.9 t·a^-1和30.9 t·a^-1,自净率分别为28.8%和51.2%.河流对氮磷的自净量不仅受水文生态条件的影响而表现出较大的季节性变化,而且随着污染负荷量本身的增加而提高.按照水功能区划中Ⅲ类水的水质要求,长乐江总氮含量全年超标;各非点源的总氮投(排)放量均须不同程度的削减,削减总量应达到1 581.0　t;氮源削减量分配结果表明,化肥是应削减的最大氮源,要求在河流相应集水区内的化肥氮投放削减量为1 047.4 t·a^-1;而与各种氮源的投排放现状相比,要求削减比例最高的是畜禽养殖的氮排放量,达32.4%.长乐江流域尚有一定的总磷剩余水环境容量(2 335.7 t·a^-1).根据目标水质要求,平水期是各污染源总氮投放需要削减的量最大的时期,丰水期则是总磷剩余水环境容量最小的时期.     

Elevated CO2 changes the moderate shade tolerance of yellow birch seedlings

To demonstrate the existence of light thresholds in plant growth and to examine the effects of elevated CO2 on the shade tolerance of a tree species, an experiment consisting of a completely randomized design for a total of 96 yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton) seedlings was conducted with 3 light levels (2.9%, 7.7%, 26.1% of full sunlight)×2 CO2 levels (350 and 700±10 ppm) with 4 replications in a phytotron. The study proved that thresholds exist and they vary in different plant organs. In ambient CO2, the thresholds were 13.3%, 18.7%, 15.0%, 15.2%, and 15.6% of full sunlight for stem, leaf, root, total plant biomass, and the averaged value, respectively. In 700 ppm CO2, the corresponding thresholds were 16.7%, 21.3%, 18.1%, 21.7% and 19.5% for stem, leaf, root, total plant biomass, and the averaged value, respectively. The lowest threshold in the stem is an indicator of the minimal light intensity for regular growth for seedlings of this species. Below this threshold, light-stressful growth occurs. The result of a paired t-test indicated that the thresholds in elevated CO2 were significantly higher than in ambient CO2. This suggests that yellow birch will lose its moderate shade tolerance, evolutionally becoming a shade-intolerant species, and that it may become more difficult to naturally regenerate in the future.     

月湖底栖动物的空间格局及其对水草可恢复区的指示

底质适宜是富营养湖泊恢复沉水植物(水草)的重要前提。大型底栖动物可综合指示底质的污染程度,于2002~2003年在武汉月湖开展了底栖动物水平分布对水草可恢复区指示作用的研究。首先通过月湖底栖动物与环境的相关分析,选择颤蚓科寡毛类作为底质营养状况的指示类群,然后利用同类湖泊群颤蚓与水草数据分析阈值,初步确定颤蚓密度≤100 ind/m2的底质适合水草生长,最后绘制月湖颤蚓分布的水平等值线,显示水草恢复的合适区域。在此基础上构建了应用底栖动物空间格局指示水草恢复区的技术原理框架。     

Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid

The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. Adopting the initial load of a node j to be L_j=[k_j(Σ_mΓjk_m)]^α with k_j and Γ_j being the degree of the node j and the set of its neighboring nodes, respectively, where α is a tunable parameter and governs the strength of the initial load of a node, we investigate the response of the US power grid under two attacks during the cascading propagation. In the case of α<0.7, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks in the case of α=0.7 may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.