电网发展、清洁电源接入与地区能源效率

鉴于我国已经建成全球规模最大的超高压和特高压电网,彻底弥补了电力跨区配置的电网基础设施短板,并且为清洁电源并入电网和跨区消纳提供了完善的基础设施,不仅克服我国电力负荷中心和能源基地的区域布局不协调,而且有益于缓解日益严峻的能源利用率低下和环境污染问题。本文利用1991—2012年全国29个省市面板数据实证研究了清洁电源并网对地区全要素能源效率的影响。为保证实证结果稳健性分别在线性和非线性实证框架下采用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)和面板平滑转换模型(PSTR)两种方法估计了清洁电源接入高压、超高压和特高压电网的地区全要素能源效率异质性效应。实证结果显示:(1)我国电网基础设施对地区全要素能源效率具有明显的增进效应,特别是超高压电网在促进全要素能源效率提升上表现的最为突出,在特高压骨干网架尚未形成的情况下起到了支柱性作用。(2)高压、超高压、特高压与清洁电源交互项的估计系数始终位于负数区间,反映清洁电源并网的能源效率绩效并不明显,受限于并网规模和机制缺陷,还没有发挥出全要素能源效率提升作用。(3)随着人均GDP的不断提高,各等级电网对地区能源效率的益处越来越明显,并且存在着门槛效应。(4)特高压电网对地区能源效率的积极作用主要表现在东部沿海高收入省份,这些省份作为电力消费负荷中心,大规模接入清洁电源对能源效率改善裨益明显。接下来,需要根据地区的能源禀赋结构选择清洁电源的并网模式,完善的电网基础设施、合理的电源结构还需要配置以高效的清洁电源并网机制才能不断增进地区全要素能源效率。     

强“波特假说”存在产业异质性吗?——基于产业碳密集程度细分的视角

强"波特假说"认为严格而恰当的环境规制政策将使企业的生产效率呈现先降后升的趋势,为验证强"波特假说"及其产业异质性,首先建立产业碳密集指数,将工业部门36个细分行业划分为高碳密集产业、中碳密集产业和低碳密集产业;接着运用方向性距离函数测算2003—2014年细分行业的绿色全要素生产率,基于系统"GMM"估计方法验证三个细分行业的环境规制强度对绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究结果显示:第一,样本期间内,高碳密集产业的环境规制强度远远高于中低碳密集产业,这表明高碳密集产业一直是产业节能减排的重点对象,而碳排放情况较为严重的中碳密集产业则为"被遗忘的角落";第二,强"波特假说"在工业部门内存在产业异质性,高碳密集产业和中碳密集产业的环境规制强度与绿色全要素生产率呈"U"型关系,而在低碳密集产业中两者则呈倒"U"型关系;第三,相对于高碳密集产业,中碳密集产业因环境规制强度较容易跨越"U"型拐点而具有较大的减排空间,低碳密集产业在达到"U"型拐点之前,环境规制为其绿色全要素生产率提升的动力。本文研究结论蕴含如下的政策建议:根据产业的碳密集程度实施针对性的环境规制政策,持续加强中碳密集产业的环境规制力度,适度加强低碳密集产业的环境规制强度,高碳密集产业需根据不同阶段的经济水平设计具有针对性的环境规制政策,逐渐将三类产业的"遵循成本"效应转化为"创新补偿"效应,实现经济增长和环境保护的双赢。     

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

中国2030年CO2排放总量预测研究

我国2005年和2010年CO2排放总量分别为55亿t和81.52亿t,“十五”和“十一五”期间年均增长率分别为11.0％和8.0％.中国2011-2015年、2016-2020年、2021-2025年和2026-2030年GDP年均增长率分别为8％、7％、6％、5％的经济发展模式与对应的能源消费弹性系数分别为0.5、0.5、0.4和0.3的能源发展模式,预测2030年燃煤、燃油和天然气CO2排放量及全国CO2排放总量.提出减少CO2排放总量对策,主要包括：调整能源结构,尽量减少煤炭消费量占能源消费总量的比例,增加石油、天然气和新能源的比例,提高CO2综合利用率,完善CO2管理政策与法律法规等.     

微囊藻毒素-LR的全内反射荧光免疫传感器研究

在开发全内反射荧光免疫传感器的基础上,研究水中微囊藻毒素-LR(MC-LR)的检测方法。建立了基于MC-LR平面波导免疫芯片的制备方法,并结合流动分析和荧光检测开发检测系统,针对MC-LR的免疫检测条件进行优化。结果表明,全内反射荧光免疫传感器对MC-LR抗体的检测限为0.001μg/mL;在间接竞争免疫检测模式下,最优检测条件是预反应时间5min、预反应温度37℃、进样停留时间500s;在最优检测条件下,对MC-LR的检测限为0.100μg/L,线性区间为0.200~4.000μg/L;全内反射荧光免疫传感器检测MC-LR的加标回收率均在100.0%±20.0%,平行测定的相对标准偏差小于5%。     

浙江省工业烟粉尘总量控制研究

通过对浙江省工业烟粉尘排放总量和排放源现状进行分析,提出工业烟粉尘减排治理对策,对工业烟粉尘4个重点行业(水泥制造行业、火力发电行业、钢铁行业(包括炼钢、钢压延加工和黑色金属铸造行业)、纺织染整行业(包括棉印染精加工、化纤织物染整精加工和棉织造加工行业)排放源的烟粉尘减排途径和潜力进行分析测算,研究提出工业烟粉尘总量控制措施和建议。     

陕北能源化工基地某工业园区水污染物排放总量控制研究

基于水污染物总量控制思路,以陕北能源化工基地某工业园区为研究对象,分析工业园区主要水环境问题及原因,分别对园区企业和集中污水处理厂提出排水水量、水质控制要求,从工程技术措施和管理手段上提出了明确的解决方案和要求。结果表明,各项减排措施实施后,COD、氨氮、石油类物质分别削减49.4%、71.0%、72.6%,园区排水总量控制在1.18万t/d,最终保证园区水污染物总量控制目标的实现。     

北京市“十三五”大气污染物排放总量控制基本思路探讨

随着各项环保措施的深入实施,北京市大气环境质量进一步改善的难度逐渐加大。对北京市"十二五"时期的大气污染物排放总量控制工作进行了经验总结,并分析了"十三五"时期大气污染物的排放形势和减排压力。在此基础上,从6个方面提出了北京市"十三五"期间大气污染物排放总量控制的基本思路。     

湖库型水体总氮总量控制目标的区域分配研究

基于层次分析法原理,以资源禀赋、社会经济、农业生产生活、污染治理水平为主要考虑因素设计指标体系和层次结构,建立了湖库型水体总氮总量控制目标分配方法,并在石头口门水库流域进行了应用,为湖库型水体总氮总量控制目标分配及石头口门水库流域总氮总量控制提供借鉴。     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.