Assessment of risk from long term exposure to waterborne pathogens

Disease due to waterborne pathogens, whether in outbreak or endemic form, continues to be a problem in both the developing and the developed world. Control of waterborne disease requires accurate assessment of the pathogen dose-response relation and of likely patterns of exposure. Heretofore, risk assessment of pathogen exposure has been done on the basis of several standard biologically plausible dose-response models. In this paper, the problem of estimating the long-term risk from waterborne pathogens is put into a rigorous mathematical and statistical framework. The implications of the biologic assumptions embedded in the dose-response models (e.g., heterogeneity in susceptibility) are fully considered, as are the likely patterns of long-term exposure (e.g., temporal correlations within individuals and heterogeneity of mean exposures). Two types of long-term risk are described, risk per person-time and risk per individual where the latter is the risk of infection at least once. The effects on these risks of heterogeneity in individuals susceptibilities and mean exposures and of temporal correlations of exposures are described, both theoretically and empirically using a sample of experimental data sets. Because different models with equal plausibility may give very different results in the low-dose range but fit the experimental data equally well, we apply the model uncertainty algorithm of Buckland et al. (1997) on example data sets. Finally, the computational aspects of the general problem, which are often challenging, are discussed along with the conditions under which simplifying approximations may be utilized.     

Application of geostatistical methods to arsenic data from soil samples of the Cova dos Mouros mine (Vila Verde-Portugal)

A total of 286 soil samples were collected in the Cova dos Mouros area. All samples were dry sieved into the <200 mesh size fraction and analysed for Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Co, Ni, Bi and Mn by atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) and for As, Se, Sb and Te by atomic absorption spectrometry-hydrid generation (AAS-HG). Only the results of arsenic are discussed in this paper although the survey was extended to all analysed chemical elements. The purpose of this study was to make a risk probability mapping for arsenic that would allow better knowledge about the vulnerability of the soil to arsenic contamination. To achieve this purpose, the initial variable was transformed into an indicator variable using as thresholds the risk-based standards (intervention values) for soils, as proposed by [Swartjes 1999. Risk based assessment of soil and groundwater quality in the Netherlands: Standards and remediation. J. Geochem. Explor.73 1–10]. To account for spatial structure, sample variograms were computed for the main directions of the sampling grid and a spherical model was fitted to each sample variogram (arsenic variable and indicator variables). The parameters of the spherical model fitted to the arsenic variable were used to predict arsenic concentrations at unsampled locations. A risk probability mapping was also done to assess the vulnerability of the soil towards the mining works. The parameters of the spherical model fitted to each indicator variable were used to estimate probabilities of exceeding the corresponding threshold. The use of indicator kriging as an alternative to ordinary kriging for the soil data of Cova dos Mouros produced unbiased probability maps that allowed assessment of the quality of the soil.     

观测误差对非线性环境模型参数识别的影响

采用SCE-UA方法和RSA方法，比较了在不同的观测误差条件下，优化方法和不确定性分析方法对于非线性模型参数识别的影响。分析表明，RSA方法是在具有观测误差的数据条件下进行参数识别的一种有效手段。同时，通过比较分析，发现RSA方法预测的浓度平均值和概率最大值与“真实值”并不完全一致。因此，在使用RSA方法时，应该充分考虑预测区间，以降低决策风险。     

A WATERSHED-LEVEL ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: We present an ecological risk assessment methodology at the watershed level for freshwater ecosystems. The major component is a pollutant transport and fate model (a modified EUTROMOD) with an integrated uncertainty analysis utilizing a two-phase Monte Carlo procedure. The uncertainty analysis methodology distinguishes between knowledge uncertainty and stochastic variability. The model assesses the ecological risk of lentic (lake) ecosystems in response to the stress of excess phosphorus resulting in eutrophication. The methodology and model were tested on the Wister Lake watershed in Oklahoma with the lake and its trophic state as the endpoint for ecological risk assessment. A geographic information system was used to store, manage, and manipulate spatially referenced data for model input.     

HYDROLOGIC UNCERTAINTY MEASURE AND NETWORK DESIGN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a simple methodology, using the entropy concept, to estimate regional hydro logic uncertainty and information at both gaged and ungaged grids in a basin. The methodology described in this paper is applicable for (a) the selection of the optimum station from a dense network, using maximization of information transmission criteria, and (b) expansion of a network using data from an existing sparse network by means of the information interpolation concept and identification of the zones from minimum hydrologic information. The computation of single and joint entropy terms used in the above two cases depends upon single and multivariable probability density functions. In this paper, these terms are derived for the gamma distribution. The derived formulation for optimum hydrologic network design was tested using the data from a network of 29 rain gages on Sleeper River Experimental Watershed. For the purpose of network reduction, the watershed was divided into three subregions, and the optimum stations and their locations in each subregion were identified. To apply the network expansion methodology, only the network consisting of 13 stations was used, and feasible triangular elements were formed by joining the stations. Hydrologic information was calculated at various points on the line segments, and critical information zones were identified by plotting information contours. The entropy concept used in this paper, although derived for single and bivaviate gamma distribution, is general in type and can easily be modified for other distributions by a simple variable transformation criterion.     

Validation and global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method for fenamidone analysis in grapes and wines

Fenamidone is an imidazolinone fungicide recently introduced in viticulture practices. This work reports the validation and assessment of global uncertainty of a gas chromatographic with mass spectrometry method to analyze fenamidone in grapes and wines. This method consists in a simple and fast liquid-liquid extraction step followed by chromatographic determination. Limits of detection for fenamidone in grapes and wines were, respectively, 0.05 mg/kg and 0.06 mg/L, precision was below 9.4% and average recovery was 89 ± 5%. In the concentration range from 0.05 to 1.00 mg/kg (or mg/L) of fenamidone, global uncertainty calculated following the EURACHEM/CITAC rules, and also by the Horwitz function, was below 25%. The EURACHEM/CITAC global uncertainty budget used gave lower estimates than those obtained from the Horwitz function.     

Risk communication in the internet age: The rise of disorganized skepticism

Communicating risks has become a core ingredient in the regulatory functions of government, interest group advocacy, public health, and corporate relations. The channels of risk communication have grown in complexity along with the development and expansion of the Internet and the birth of personalized blogging. This paper discusses three stages in the development of risk communication as an area of study and research. It examines the way risk is framed in three channels of communication, newsprint, the Expanded Academic Index, and Google using the example of the controversial chemical perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The paper concludes that the Internet, as illustrated by the Google search engine, has created more opportunities for citizen learning and expanded the breadth and channels of risk communication, while also providing new opportunities for stakeholders to influence the message. Democritization of information does not necessarily create greater concordance between the cultural and technical assessment of risk.     

Climate change decision-support and the tolerable windows approach

The Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA) to Integrated Assessments (IA) of global warming is based on external normative specifications of tolerable sets of climate impacts as well as proposed emission quotas and policy instruments for implementation. In a subsequent step, the complete set of admissible climate protection strategies which are compatible with these normative inputs is determined by scientific analysis. In doing so, minimum requirements concerning global and national greenhouse gas emission paths can be determined. In this paper we present the basic methodological elements of TWA, discuss its relation to more conventional approaches to IA like cost–benefit analyses, and present some preliminary results obtained by a reduced-form climate model.     

The Role of Mineral Weathering Rate Determinations in Generating Uncertainties in the Calculation of Critical Loads of Acidity and their Exceedance

Current legislation within Europe aimed at limitingecosystem damage resulting from inputs of atmosphericpollution is based on the critical load concept. Mineralweathering rates are central to the calculation ofcritical loads (acceptable levels) of acid deposition.The authors have undertaken a number of studies whichillustrate the complications and limitations inherent inpredicting mineral weathering rates and the implicationswhich these have for critical loads calculations andmapping. Calculated weathering rates and critical loadsfor two acid-sensitive parent materials (greywackes andgranites) are presented and are used to illustrate theimpact that uncertainty can have on critical loadexceedances. The results have obvious implications forportraying the uncertainties of critical loads to policy makers.