湖泊水动力模型外部输入条件不确定性和敏感性分析

以我国典型的大型浅水湖泊太湖为研究区域,采用国内外常用的环境流体动力学模型(EFDC),结合拉丁超立方取样(LHS)方法,研究湖泊水动力模型中4个重要的外部输入条件,即3个边界输入条件(出入湖流量、风速、风向)和1个初始输入条件(初始水位),对模型水动力模拟结果(水位、水龄以及流场)的影响与贡献.结果表明,初始水位的设定对模拟全湖水位和水龄产生决定性影响,不确定性的贡献率分别达到85.73%和66.125%,对垂向平均流速影响的贡献率只有3%;风速对表面流速模拟结果影响较大,贡献率达到58.70%,而对水位和水龄的贡献率分别为5.25%和3.00%.在垂向上,各层流速受外部输入条件不确定性的影响规律相似,贡献率排序为风速(55%~60%)>风向(10%~15%)>初始水位≈出入湖流量(1%~5%).因此在模拟大型浅水湖泊水动力过程时,可以根据不同的输出目标能够有针对性地提高外部输入条件的准确度,为提高模型精确度提供有效信息.     

关于铬酸雾测定问题的探讨

随着人们对铬酸雾环境问题的日益重视,铬酸雾的测定工作就显得愈发重要.文中总结了铬酸雾标准限值,阐述国内外测定方法标准及进展,最后结合实际工作指出测定中的注意事项及存在问题.研究表明,目前国内有关铬酸雾测定的标准方法仅有《固定污染源排气中铬酸雾的测定二苯基碳酰二肼分光光度法》（HJ/T29-1999）,国内外有关铬酸雾的其它测定方法也鲜有报道.在依照国标方法测定铬酸雾的实际工作中,测定结果的准确度受诸多因素影响,主要为试剂质量、玻璃器皿的清洗、显色酸度、显色温度、空气采样器流量等,需要引起注意.目前铬酸雾测定也存在诸多问题需要改进及解决,如干扰消除问题、采样管路材质问题、吸收提取液问题、质保质控问题、新测定方法拓展问题等.     

Uncertainty analyses on the calculation of water environmental capacity by an innovative holistic method and its application to the Dongjiang River

The estimation and allocation of water environmental capacity （WEC） are essential to water quality management and social-economic interests. However, there is inevitable uncertainty in the capacity estimation due to model conceptualization, data collection and parameter calibration. An innovative holistic approach was developed, which took both independence and relevance between parameters into account to analyze the uncertainties in WEC calculation and estimate the margin of safety. The Doniang River was taken as the case to demonstrate the method, focusing on the chemical oxygen demand and NH-N that were the two major water quality problems in the river. The results showed that the proposed holistic approach is very promising and applicable compared to traditional methods of uncertainty analysis.     

微生物学检验中菌落总数测量结果不确定度的评定研究

文章主要分析了微生物学检验中菌落总数测量不确定度的数学模型、测量不确定度的来源分析、测量不确定度的计算以及相应的表示方法.微生物学检验中菌落总数的测定,其特点是同一样品测定结果相差极大,由随机效应带来的测量重复性所导致的不确定度占了主要部分.通常的做法是对同一样品作多次测量,取对数后进行计算.     

Dealing with uncertainty: a case study of controlling insect populations in natural ecosystems

This paper analyses the political process for handling an outbreak of an insect causing human allergic reactions. In the southern part of the Swedish island Gotland in the Baltic Sea, an outbreak of the northern pine processionary moth, Thaumetopoea pinivora, has occurred. With regard to the human nuisance and long-term effects on the tourist industry, demands have been raised for intervention to reduce and control the insect population. At the same time, there have been warnings against treating the insect population because there are knowledge gaps concerning the wider ecological consequences, including effects on biodiversity. This paper analyses the political process and its problem-solving efforts. Of particular interest is how it dealt with the issue of uncertainty. It was found that the uncertainty associated with the issue hindered the development of a shared understanding of the problem and a possible solution. There seems to be a growing need in society to develop the institutional capacity to handle complex issues that cross different sectors, regulatory frameworks and policy targets.     

含13种有机氯农药土壤标准样品的研制

采用分级稀释混合法将来自不同采样点的含不同种类和浓度的有机氯农药(OCPs)的样品进行混合制得含13种OCPs的土壤标准样品。根据GB/T 15000《标准样品工作导则》系列标准对土壤标准样品进行均匀性检验、稳定性检验,并和16家实验室协作定值。实验结果表明:土壤标准样品中13种OCPs指标均匀性良好,保证土壤标准样品足够均匀的最小取样量为0.50 g;在室温(不超过30℃)避光贮存条件下,在为期12个月的稳定性检验期间,该土壤标准样品中13种OCPs稳定性良好。该土壤标准样品中13种OCPs指标的含量范围为0.08~5.23μg/g,扩展不确定度为0.014~0.82μg/g,基本满足我国土壤、沉积物等环境样品中OCPs的质量控制检测需求。     

基于保护地下水的土壤修复目标层次化制订方法

按照复杂程度将污染物从土壤经地下水迁移到下游饮水井的过程划分为3个层次,采用分层评估框架建立了基于保护地下水的土壤修复目标的制订方法,并利用该方法确定了某污染场地的土壤修复目标值. 结果表明,在污染场地下游200 m处的饮水井内水质标准不降低的前提下,随着评价层次的不断提高,需要修复的污染物由4种(苯、甲苯、乙苯、二甲苯)减至1种(苯),待修复土方量由23.1×104 m3降至4.7×104 m3,可极大地节约修复成本. 该场地污染土壤的第一层次和第二层次修复目标值与部分国家/地区的有关标准限值较为一致;第三层次修复目标值考虑的污染物迁移过程更加完整,更能反映场地的实际情况. 参数的敏感性分析表明,对土壤修复目标值计算结果影响最大的参数为土壤有机质质量分数、土壤有机碳-水分配系数和入渗速度. 在确定修复方案时,应该通过试验或补充调查获取这些参数,以降低结果的不确定性. 研究显示,将第三层次评估结果作为该污染场地的修复目标能充分保证下游饮水井内水质满足要求,并且可以避免过度修复.      

A chemical plant protection game incorporating bounded rational attackers and distribution-free uncertainties

The chemical industry has an important role in our modern society. Due to the existence of hazardous materials and possible extreme producing conditions, chemical facilities are also considered dangerous. Research has pointed out that a successful attack on chemical plants may cause mass casualties, in the United States. Game theory has been employed to improve the protection of chemical plants, and current literature on chemical plant protection games assume a ‘rational’ attacker. The present paper studies a game-theoretic model, which is played by a rational defender and a ‘bounded rational’ attacker, for improving chemical plant protection. The attacker modeled in this paper is assumed to play higher payoff strategies with higher probabilities, which is innovative from the current chemical security literature. Attackers in the current chemical plant protection games would always play the strategy with the highest payoff (probability of 100%). Distribution-free uncertainties on attacker's parameters are also integrated into the model. An algorithm for solving the game presented in this paper is also proposed. A case study reveals that although a bounded rational attacker would reduce the defender's expected payoff, the defender's equilibrium strategy from the present model is robust to different attacker behaviors.     

电源适配器平均效率的测量不确定度评定

对符合GB 20943-2013定义的电源适配器平均效率的测量不确定度进行了实例评定,示范了如何处理评定过程中复杂的非线性数学模型问题,阐述了获取电源适配器平均效率合成标准不确定度的过程和方法,进而确定电源适配器平均效率测量结果的扩展不确定度。     

Dealing with uncertainty in the assessment of human exposure to radioactivity in food and the environment

This paper presents an overview of the approach used to assess radiation dose and risk to members of the public from radioactivity in food and the environment. It describes uncertainties in the process and suggests ways of dealing with them to improve the risk assessment process. It also explains how uncertainty in the assessed dose/risk can be communicated to non-expert audiences such as members of the public. The issues covered in this paper apply to risk assessment of any contaminant and not only radioactivity.