基于面积统计的震后烈度评估

选取了较为典型的历史震例,并将这些震例的等震线图数字化.利用这些等震线图数据,直接统计出地震参数和震后不同烈度面积之间的关系,并将该关系和烈度衰减几何模型结合起来,反演震后烈度的具体分布形状,以进行震后烈度分布的预测.     

Sustainability of Current Agricultural Practices in The Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

Cameron Highlands is a mountainous region with steep slopes. Gradients exceeding 20^∘ are common. The climate is favourable to the cultivation of tea, sub-tropical vegetables and flowers (under rain-shelter). Crop production is sustained by high fertiliser and manure applications. However, agriculture in this environment is characterised by high levels of soil erosion and environmental pollution. A study on the sustainability of these agro-ecosystems was conducted. Results indicated that soil loss was in the range of 24–42 ton/ha/yr under vegetables and 1.3 ton under rain-shelter. Sediment load in the vegetable sub-catchment reached 3.5 g/L, 50 times higher than that associated with flowers under rain-shelter and tea. The sediments contained high nutrient loads of up to 470 kg N/ha/yr. The N, P and K lost in runoff from cabbage farms was 154 kg/season/ha, whereas in chrysanthemum farms it was 5 kg. In cabbage farms, the N, P, and K lost through leaching was 193 kg/season/ha. The NO₃–N concentration in the runoff from the cabbage farms reached 25 ppm but less than 10 ppm in runoff from rain-shelters. Inorganic pollution in the rivers was within the acceptable limit of 10 ppm. The sustainability of the agro-ecosystems is in the order of tea { > } rain–shelter ≫ vegetables.     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian–Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.     

The Role of Disaggregation of Asset Values in Flood Loss Estimation: A Comparison of Different Modeling Approaches at the Mulde River,Germany

In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC) data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must, however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling aspects.     

常规施肥条件下农田不同途径氮素损失的原位研究:以长江中下游地区夏玉米季为例

为了解农田常规施肥条件下的不同途径氮素损失特征,本文通过田间原位试验同步研究了长江中下游地区夏玉米生长季氮肥施用后的农田N2O排放、NH3挥发、氮渗漏和地表径流的变化.结果表明,在复合肥为基肥,尿素为追肥,基追肥氮素水平均为150 kg·hm-2的条件下,整个玉米生长季N2O排放系数为3.3%,NH3挥发损失率为10.2%,氮渗漏和地表径流损失率分别为11.2%和5.1%.此外,基肥施用以氮素渗漏损失为主,而追肥氮素损失以氨挥发和渗漏为主,表明不同途径化肥氮素损失主要受氮肥品种影响,玉米季追肥可改用低氨挥发氮肥品种以减少氮素损失.     

大型采石废弃地弃渣边坡稳定技术设计研究

近年来,采石场大面积弃渣边坡无防护堆积和坡面水土流失等问题严重.文章基于"蓄水范式"理念,以山阴县小娘娘山采石场为例,采用理论研究与实用施工技术相结合的方法,提出一套因地制宜的弃渣边坡稳定技术,该技术包括蓄水稳定技术设计和配套措施设计,以研究区内的一处弃渣边坡为示范点进行了实际设计和施工.结果表明,弃渣边坡稳定技术能有效提高弃渣边坡的稳定性和蓄水能力,施工方便、成本低,在实际工程中具有广泛地推广性.     

远程火箭弹高弹道飞行温度环境分析

目的在不采用防热涂层的前提下,为满足远程火箭弹高弹道飞行的防热需求,提出增加壳体厚度的设计思路。方法通过弹道耦合的气动加热计算,分析不同材料、不同厚度壳体的弹头壁面在飞行过程中的温度变化情况。结果壳体厚度达到20 mm以上时,铝、钢、铜三种材料壳体的外壁面温度均低于150℃,而相同厚度的壳体,钢壳的降温能力最强。结论增加壳体厚度可以有效降低弹头壳体壁面温度。     

基于物质流分析的钾素流动与循环研究

我国钾矿资源匮乏,自给率低,主要的使用和流动过程集中在种植业活动中.本研究利用物质流分析方法对2009年我国种植业生产和消费过程中钾素的流动和循环过程进行了解析.结果表明,农田土壤钾素平均亏损量达到50.4 kg·hm-2,大量钾素由陆生生态系统进入水生生态系统,造成资源流失.伴随降雨径流进入水环境的钾素达231.2万t·a-1,占当年化学钾肥施用量的40.97%.生活污水排放是钾素进入水体的另一主要途径,城市和农村区域的年排放量分别为67.1万t·a-1和54.7万t·a-1,占进入水环境钾素总量的19.00%和15.50%.其中通过城市污水处理厂排放进入地表水环境中钾素为50.5万t·a-1,占城市区域排放总量的75.25%.     

土地利用方式改变对红树林沉积物中营养元素含量的影响

以广西、广东、海南等地代表性红树林湿地为对象,研究红树林湿地利用方式的改变对沉积物有机碳、总硫、总氮和总磷等营养元素的含量变化和影响,结果表明：1）广东和海南红树林区总氮和总磷变化相似,均为：沉积物〉农田〉鱼塘〉光滩,广西大冠沙稍有不同,光滩的氮磷含量最低;有机碳和总硫含量各地稍有差异,但是红树林沉积物中的有机碳,总硫...