Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

天津市机动车污染评估方法

依据城市机动车空气污染评价方法确立了天津市空气污染物机动车污染的评价体系。该评价体系具有准确性、先进性和实用性，采用科学的方法估算天津市城区机动车排气污染物的排放浓度及总量对环境空气污染的分担率。科学地给出了天津市现阶段机动车污染的现状及发展趋势，为环境保护决策提供了科学依据。     

毛细管电泳中样品的在线富集

近年来,毛细管电泳以其速度快、效率高的分离分析技术受到越来越多领域的青睐,样品在线富集的方法有效的提高毛细管电泳由于进样体积小而造成的检测灵敏度难以提高的问题。文章简单介绍了毛细管电泳在线富集的原理,对其方法与应用进行了总结与概述。     

水体中高锰酸盐指数的流动注射分析方法

研究了用流动注射分析技术测定水体中高锰酸盐指数。使用新发明的耐腐蚀恒流泵、低记忆高效混合器、不存留气泡流通池等部件,通过高温高压,缩短消解时间,从而建立了一种可用于无人值守的自动在线快速监测水体中高锰酸盐指数的分析方法。     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Impacts of interannual climate variability on past and future forest composition

Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands (ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values alone. Electronic Publication     

长江中下游河道与岸线演变特点

分析了长江中下游河道岸线变化的主要因素，它们分别是河岸崩塌，泥沙淤积及人类活动等，其中河岸崩塌是河道岸线演变的最主要原因。总的来说长江中下游干流河势是稳定的，但五个河段有各自演变特点和规律，其中宜昌－枝城段河道与河床比较稳定，岸线顺直，但葛洲坝和三峡水利枢纽建成后对河床的冲刷作用较大；荆江段是长江著名的河曲段，其冲淤变化较大；城陵矶至湖口段为节点和分汊河床组成，一般来说节点较为稳定，而分汊河床不太稳定，湖口至江阴河段岸线一般较为稳定，但弯道河床变化较大；河口段不但受江流作用影响，还受潮流与波浪等共同影响，所以河口河床演变迅速，主要表现为汊道主泓迁移摆动。     

不同塔型交流输电线路的电磁环境分析

选择500 kV同杆双回紧凑型线路、500 kV同杆双回常规线路、500 kV单回紧凑型线路、500 kV单回常规线路、220 kV同杆双回线路和220 kV/110 kV同杆4回线路进行不同塔型交流线路的电磁环境测量.通过测试和计算分析,给出了被测试线路的电磁环境水平.     

输电线路建设项目水土保持方案编制的几点认识

针对输电建设项目的特点,阐述了输电线路与一般线形建设项目水土保持方案的不同之处,提出了输电线路水土保持方案编制的程序、内容及方法.     

超低空航拍技术在输变电环评工作中的应用研究

分析了环评工作中收集的影像资料存在的问题,提出了超低空航拍的解决方法。通过对比分析,选择了多旋翼无人机作为超低空航拍平台。该设备具有携带方便,飞行稳性的优点。从实际应用效果来看,基于该技术获得的影像信息含量全面、工作效率高、评价结果更客观可信,为提高环评工作质量提供了一个可靠的技术方案。