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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
The main purpose of this study is to assess economic vulnerability of small island development regions as part of their sustainability constraints. By combining economic and environmental time series data, we assessed a composite index of economic vulnerability which is constructed from three exogenous variables, namely economic exposure, economic remoteness, and economic impact of environmental and natural disasters. We used the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan as the case studies for this paper.The results indicated that using a gross island products based valuation index, Kikaijima is the most vulnerable island in the Amami Islands with a composite economic vulnerability index (CEVI) value of 0.678, while by using a per capita based index, Okinoerabujima is considered the most vulnerable island with a CEVI value of 0.680. From the results we also revealed that smaller islands have relative higher vulnerability than the bigger one, which also confirms some previous country-level vulnerability studies.However, it is matter of fact that some islands that have relatively high vulnerability also have good economic performance as shown by their per capita income. In this regard, it can be argued that the success of these small islands could have been achieved in spite of and not because of their inherent vulnerability conditions as an indicator of sustainability constraint. Regarding these findings, we also examined a comparison between vulnerability results and the preliminary concept of an island's resilience in order to capture another perspective on sustainability assessment in a small island region. 相似文献
3.
Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level
rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most
important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives
of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential
sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis
allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds:
‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional
storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output
maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six
scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with
return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the
major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies
in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change. 相似文献
4.
Riebsame WE 《Disasters》1985,9(4):295-300
Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored. 相似文献
5.
Debra Straussfogel 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2006,11(4):911-931
This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic
relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative
structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology)
into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts
of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided
by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external
economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the
social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system
criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to
suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change
mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand. 相似文献
6.
7.
Linda?Anderson-BerryEmail author David?King 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(3):367-392
Community mitigation of hazard impact requires hazard knowledge and preparedness on the part of the members of diverse and
complex communities. Longitudinal research in the tropical cyclone prone north of Australia has gathered extensive datasets
on community awareness, preparedness and knowledge, in order to contribute to education campaigns and mitigation strategies.
Data have been used to identify issues of vulnerability to cyclones and capacity to deal with the hazard. This has been developed
as a community vulnerability and capacity model that may be applied to diverse communities in order to assess levels of capability
to mitigate and deal with the cyclone hazard. The model is presented here in a simplified form as its development is evolving
and ongoing. 相似文献
8.
气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容,以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的4 次缔约方会议的结果; 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制(CDM) 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同,以及CDM 的特点、方法学与技术问题; 第三部分分析了CDM 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给;最后就CDM 的实施作了展望。 相似文献
9.
Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives
To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches. 相似文献
10.
张娜 《安全.健康和环境》2020,(1):39-43
分析了工业企业工控系统网络面对诸如自身漏洞、工业协议、操作系统、杀毒软件以及管理缺陷等日益增多的安全风险,需要采用分区隔离、边界防护、异常检测、访问控制、限制接入、健全管理等多种技术、管理手段,建立纵深防御体系,提升工业控制系统的网络安全防护水平,以抵御工业控制网络面临的安全风险。 相似文献