论知识经济下经济安全评估及策略

随着知识经济的来临,经济全球化趋势越来越明显,国家间的经济联系不断增强,同时也随之产生的国家间的经济竞争不断加剧,使得国家经济安全受到威胁。笔者针对当前的经济发展特征,就如何提高国家经济安全水平以增强国际竞争力探讨了影响国家经济安全的因素。从多方面的、综合性的影响经济安全因素中,找到影响经济安全的基本要素,据此从统计的可行性角度,科学地构建了评估经济安全的指标体系。所构建的指标体系对综合评价一个国家和地区的经济安全具有一定的合理性和科学性。最后,提出了有关保证经济安全的策略,以便当我国在知识经济来临之时,保证经济快速发展,能在经济全球化中不断提高自己的国际竞争力。     

安全工程的专业课程设置中存在的问题与研究

笔者首先指出了我国高校安全工程的专业课程设置和课程内容安排中存在的较为普遍的问题:课程设置与课程内容安排缺乏可操作性强的理论指导;在教学中同名专业课程,不同学校采用不同教材,教师讲授的内容,都存在较大差别和分歧。其次,从学科知识体系的层次结构的角度,将安全工程学科的专业知识划分为两大层次(包含6个小层次)。在此基础上,笔者将安全工程专业课程体系分为学科基础课程和横向展开课程;提出了安全工程的专业课程设置与课程内容安排应遵循的完备性和系统性原则;同时,给出了支持具体操作的表格。通过实践,对安全工程专业课程设置的新思路的合理性与可行性进行了检验。     

State of research on the automation of HAZOP studies

For more than 30 years, multiple research groups have worked on the automation of hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies, or more specifically on the hazard identification process. So far, very few of these approaches have been used in the chemical process industry. Automatic hazard identification is a knowledge-intensive process that demands high standards with regard to the way in which knowledge is stored and made available. There are various suitable approaches to the qualitative modeling of processes and plants, which are the foundation for reasoning systems that are used for the identification of hazards. Additionally, there are quantitative methods that are based on process simulations and can be used to identify potential hazards. The investigation of the state of research demonstrates that there are sophisticated technologies for automated systems that include powerful reasoning techniques. The benefits and shortcomings of existing technologies are discussed with regard to their industrial applicability. Often, the quality of the necessary specific and generic knowledge is not sufficient to detect potential hazardous events and operational malfunctions. Computer-aided HAZOP systems should be integrated with computer-aided design- or process simulation software using common data models based on the digital representation of the process plant. In order to be used by HAZOP practitioners automated systems need to be comprehensive, serve as specialized decision support systems, and be tested and evaluated using round robin tests.     

At home and abroad: An empirical analysis of innovation and diffusion in energy technologies

This paper contributes to the induced innovation literature by extending the analysis of supply and demand determinants of innovation in energy technologies to account for international knowledge flows and spillovers. We select a sample of 38 innovating countries and study how knowledge related to energy-efficient and environmentally friendly technologies flows across geographical and technological space. We demonstrate that higher geographical and technological distances are associated with lower probabilities of knowledge flow. Next, we use previous estimates to construct internal and external knowledge stocks for a panel of 17 countries. We then present an econometric analysis of the supply and demand determinants of innovation accounting for international knowledge spillovers. Our results confirm the role of demand-pull effects, proxied by energy prices, and of technological opportunity, proxied by the knowledge stocks. Our results show that spillovers between countries have a significant positive impact on further innovation in energy-efficient and environmentally friendly technologies.     

A bibliometric study of pool fire related publications

Pool fire is a common form of fire, which is constantly investigated along with the development of fire science and is also comprehensively employed as stable fire sources in examining other fire scenarios such as building and tunnel fires. According to the records in Science Citation Index Expanded database in the Web of Science Core Collection, a total of 1073 articles or reviews related to pool fires have been published from 1966 to 2019. In order to have a better understanding of knowledge structure of this topic and further identify its development history and currently popular concerns, a bibliometric analysis of pool fire research is conducted by means of visualization software VOSviewer and CiteSpace. This work visually provides a comprehensive overview of pool fire research in terms of annual publication output, source journals, productive countries/regions, authors and their cooperation network, subject terms, and reference co-citation analysis. The analysis provides networks of co-cited references, authors, countries, subject terms, and their respective clusters, indicating their ranking in contributions to the pool fire related publications. The results can be applied to enhance the understanding of pool fire research and support further work in this area.     

Discovering meaningful information from large amounts of environment and health data to reduce uncertainties in formulating environmental policies

This study uses knowledge discovery concepts to analyze large amounts of data step by step for the purpose of assisting in the formulation of environmental policy. We performed data cleansing and extracting from existing nation-wide databases, and used regression and classification techniques to analyze the data. The current water hardness in Kaohsiung, Taiwan contributes to the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but exacerbates the development of renal stones (RS). However, to focus on water hardness alone to control RS would not be cost effective at all, because the existing database parameters do not adequately allow for a clear understanding of RS. Analysis of huge amounts of data can most often turn up the most reliable and convincing results and the use of existing databases can be cost-effective.     

欧盟碳配额现货与期货价格关系及对中国的借鉴

基于欧盟碳市场配额现货与期货的发展经验和对我国统一碳市场建设的借鉴,本文以2005-2012年欧盟碳排放权交易体系(EU ETS)欧盟配额的现货和期货价格为样本研究二者之间的关系。本文运用单位根检验(ADF检验)的方法验证现货与期货价格的序列平稳性,并在序列平稳的前提下基于协整理论研究现货价格与期货价格的长期均衡关系,反映了二者间的静态关系。但短期内这一静态关系并不成立,反而表现出一定的动态性,短期价格的变动能够真实地反映市场需求,对价格的形成起着重要作用,因而采用向量误差修正模型重点研究二者间的短期动态关系。研究表明:1碳现货价格与期货价格间有着不同程度的影响,二者存在长期均衡,但短期内受市场特定因素的影响,二者又有所偏离;2期货价格反应灵敏,偏离均衡后调整速度快于现货,而且期货的滞后期价格对现货价格影响显著,这更加突显了碳期货的价格发现作用;3期货市场涉及了投资者对市场的预期和判断,较现货交易包含了更多的投机性,价格更为灵活,波动频繁,增加了市场风险。最后,根据结论对我国碳市场建设提出一些启示和建议:针对现货与期货价格之间的动态关系,应当积极开发和利用碳期货市场,通过期货的价格发现功能形成合理碳价,同时需要增强期货市场与现货市场的透明度,实现信息的传递与分享,最终实现期货市场对现货市场的补充和完善;为规避期货价格的波动性所带来的风险,需要建立一套完善的风险防控体系,在风险可控的前提下利用期货价格对市场进行预期,及时引导市场价格,形成完善的价格机制,为全国统一碳市场建设提供价格基础。     

Challenges in radioecology

Today, radioecology covers a broad scientific field; from the source to long term environmental impact from ionizing radiation. To summarize key challenges within radioecology, the present paper focuses upon knowledge gaps related to processes, mechanisms and variables contributing most to the overall uncertainties in environmental impact assessments. A series of sources related to the nuclear weapon cycle and the civil nuclear cycle has contributed, is still contributing or can potentially contribute to release of radionuclides to the environment in the future. The speciation of most radionuclides depends on the source and release conditions, and will influence ecosystem transport, biological uptake, doses and effects in flora and fauna. Radionuclides may also co-occur in contaminant mixtures (e.g., metals, organics), which potentially could lead to synergisms or antagonisms. Thus, challenges associated with the links between the source or release term – radionuclide speciation – ecosystem transfer – exposure – response relationships are highlighted.     

The effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness

This paper examines the effect of aviation safety education on passenger cabin safety awareness in knowledge, attitude, and behavior (KAB). The educational value of KAB has been addressed in various fields such as AIDS prevention and campus safety. KAB has been applied in aviation safety related areas, especially in training, such as crew resource management training, pilot training, and mechanic training. However, KAB has not been implemented in aviation passenger education in cabin safety. This paper uses the construct of “aviation safety education”, which is intended to influence airline passenger knowledge of, attitude toward, and behavior about cabin safety awareness. Passenger surveys were done at two Taiwan airports. The results show that aviation safety education positively affects airline passenger cabin safety knowledge, attitude, and behavior. We recommend safety education that involves accurate instruction about emergency equipment procedures, situational awareness, emergency responses, and relevant cabin-safety regulations.Our findings indicated that an increase in cabin safety knowledge positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported knowledge–behavior consistency. We also found that a positive attitude toward cabin safety positively affected airline passenger behavior, which supported attitude–behavior consistency. The hypothesis that cabin safety knowledge positively affected passenger attitude – knowledge–attitude consistency was not supported.