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1.
Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations
to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the
effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to
the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other
hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the
time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects.
Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations
observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic
density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and
climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February
2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied.
One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong
persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons
is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological
variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial
dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter.
The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O3 and PM to examine underlying trends.
Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model
yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval
for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in
trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates
out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results
in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal
variations.
Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the
analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological
conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions.
There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle
and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic
density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions
which is a direct consequence of the holiday period.
Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend
results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect
of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering
the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an
estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions.
Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant
reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site
with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes
in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability 相似文献
2.
Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants. 相似文献
3.
以漓江流域为例查明不同水体之间氢氧稳定同位素组成特征,并探讨氢氧稳定同位素对漓江流域的蒸发过程指示作用.结果表明:流域内不同水体之间,氢氧稳定同位素表现出不同的组成特征,地表水和地下水,在丰水期δD值和δ18O值要比枯水期更容易富集,地下水的δD值和δ18O值分布范围较地表水小;随着水温的升高,δ18O的变化趋势比d-excess明显.从漓江上游到下游高程逐渐下降,河水线的斜率和截距也在逐渐减小,其中漓江下游河水线的斜率和截距要低于当地大气降水线,表明下游受到蒸发作用较强烈;地下河水线、地表河水线在一定程度上偏离当地大气降水线,但偏离程度较小,表明三者之间有很好的水力联系.受温度和湿度的共同影响,漓江干流丰水期河水的蒸发量占最初水体总量的0.7%~9.1%,枯水期河水的蒸发量占最初水体总量的2.6%~9.7%,丰水期的蒸发比例低于枯水期,从上游到下游蒸发比例在逐渐上升.研究区蒸发量估算值为959.40mm,与多年实测值少43.11mm,相对误差4.70%.氢氧稳定同位素对研究区降水、地表水、地下水之间的转换规律具有重要的实际意义,在今后的漓江流域水文研究中有着更加广阔的空间. 相似文献
4.
This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO2 reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO2 policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO2 benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided. 相似文献
5.
Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Y. B. Liu F. De Smedt L. Hoffmann L. Pfister 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2005,9(4):227-235
A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios. 相似文献
6.
7.
Karin Andersson Merete Hgaas Eide Ulrika Lundqvist Berit Mattsson 《Journal of Cleaner Production》1998,6(3-4)
The feasibility of combining the concept of sustainability principles and the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is examined. The goal is to achieve an operational tool that incorporates sustainability in product development and strategic planning. While the method outlined has the structure of LCA, it emphasises aspects and parameters often omitted from traditional LCA. The analysis and results can be either qualitative or semi-quantitative. Although a qualitative analysis is less time consuming, it can still highlight the important issues. Qualitative information, which is easily lost in a quantitative analysis, can be emphasised. One of the conclusions is that the method is well suited for screening analysis. 相似文献
8.
对沈阳张士污灌区大气、水、土壤和生物各分室中Cd的库存量和各分室间Cd的循环通量进行了研究,建立了土壤-水稻系统中Cd流分室模型。该模型表明,Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区土壤分室中Cd的库存增量均为正值。可见,该污灌区近年来Cd污染程度由于污水灌溉仍然处于加剧的趋势。研究最后指出,该污灌区Cd的污染防治对策主要是减少污水灌溉量、进一步降低灌溉水中Cd的浓度和通过富Cd植物收获带走Cd.其中,以野生苋的收获带走Cd最有意义,它可使Ⅱ闸和Ⅲ闸地区Cd的下降速率分别依次达到29.49和22.81mg/(m ̄2·a)。 相似文献
9.
三界谷来地区主要出露中、新生代火山岩。进行 1/5万区域地质调查时,采用火山活动旋回-火山构造-火山地层-岩相、岩性-体化思路,按照同旋回火山机构或火山喷发区为单元,确定岩石地层单位和填图单元。火山岩划分为九种岩相类型,建立了两个岩相模式和一个三相一体成因模式。根据火山岩浆作用的旋回性及其产物与火山构造形迹时、空、成因一致性原理,将中、新生代火山岩浆作用分为四个火山活动旋回,圈定了相应的火山机构或火山喷发中心,建立了竹田头复活破火山演化模式。新生代玄武岩中发现二辉斜长麻粒岩等深源包体,为研究区域深部地质作用过程提供了证据。侵入岩按岩石谱系单元划分了七个岩石单元一个超单元,将侵入岩-潜火山岩-火山岩作为岩浆作用整体研究,为正确阐明岩浆作用及其演化规律奠定了基础。区域线型构造发育,与环形火山构造组合,形成火山岩区特有的线一环构造格局。中上元古界陈蔡群变质岩划分为上、下两个岩组,探讨了变质岩的原岩性质及其形成的大地构造环境。 相似文献
10.
Three mutually dependent elements are required for the application of life cycle assessment: methodology, data and software. Obviously, the design of software is determined by the methodology and the type of data available. Conversely, the development of software dictates the way in which data should be collected and recorded, and improves the theoretical framework, as it forces one to state the principles clearly and unambiguously. The influence of the development of software on both data and methodology is addressed and illustrated by examples, with reference to two key terms: transparency and explicitness. Three types of influence are distinguished: the design of a protocol, the formulation in terms of recipes, and the presentation of data. 相似文献