气候变暖背景下西南地区干旱灾害风险评估

论文利用全国基准基本站地面气温、降水资料,NCAR/NCEP土壤湿度资料及各类经济数据,采用加权综合评价法对西南地区干旱灾害风险因子进行分析,结果表明：四川和云南致灾因子危险性较高,气候变暖后四川东南部、云南和贵州西部危险性增加;西南地区中部到东南部成灾环境敏感性较高,气候变暖后四川东部、贵州及云南东部敏感性增加;承灾体易损性主要分布于西南中东部地区,人口密度、经济密度、耕地面积比重越高的地区易损性程度越高;四川中部、云南东北部、贵州南部及重庆西部防灾减灾能力较高。西南地区干旱灾害风险最高区域为云南东部、四川东部、贵州西部及重庆大部分地区;气候变暖后四川东南部、云南西部危险性明显增加。     

中国国家公园建设潜在区域识别研究

国家公园是保护具有国家代表性资源的自然生态区域,建设国家公园体制是中国国土生态安全保障和生态文明体制改革的重要内容。论文基于国际经验、国家公园功能和政策内涵,依据国家公园主导定位和生态系统服务理念,构建了包含6个关键指标的综合评价模型,包括生态系统完整性、生态重要性、原真性、生物多样性、自然景观价值与人文遗产价值,分别进行单一要素层评价和多指标空间叠加分析,再结合中国生态地理区划、生态功能区划和省级行政区管理等因素进行比对和范围遴选提取,初步确定了中国国家公园建设的潜在区域。结果表明,生态系统完整性、生态重要性、生物多样性、原真性的高值集聚区域具有趋同性,生态系统完整性较好的区域,承担着重要的生态功能,生物多样性也较高,原真性保存较好。中国三大阶梯与自然地理区域的叠加分布特征明显,东西部潜在区域的面积差异较大,西部地区的空间连续性较强,潜在区域的跨界性较为明显。初步遴选出55处未来可以重点考虑建设的陆地型国家公园潜在区域。研究可为中国国家公园建设合理布局提供方法参考和理论借鉴。     

1970—2013年西北干旱区空中水汽含量时空变化与降水量的关系

论文基于1970—2013年西北干旱区高空和地面气象资料,采用多种统计学方法,分析了西北干旱区空中水汽含量的时空变化特征及其与降水量的关系。结果表明：1）1970—2002年,西北干旱区空中水汽含量呈显著的增加趋势,速率为0.835 mm/10 a（P<0.01）,其中以夏季增速最高（1.709 mm/10 a,P<0.01）;而降水效率基本稳定,仅春、冬季节略增。在空间上,1970—2002年水汽含量变化速率大小依次为北疆>南疆>河西走廊,其中冬、春季节以北疆水汽增速最大,夏、秋季节以南疆水汽增速最高。2）2003—2013年,西北干旱区水汽含量呈不显著下降趋势（-2.061 mm/10 a）;而降水效率明显增加,速率为0.136%/10 a,这说明近年来空中水汽转化为降水的效率明显提升。同时,北疆降水效率增加幅度明显高于其他地区。3）西北干旱区各季节的降水效率与降水量均呈显著正相关性,而水汽含量与降水量的相关性则表现出明显的季节性差异：春季>夏季>秋季>冬季。另外,新疆降水变化与水汽含量和降水效率均呈显著正相关性,而河西走廊降水量与降水效率的关系更为密切。     

Are current Chinese national ambient air quality standards on 24-hour averages for particulate matter sufficient to protect public health?

With rapid economic development and urbanization in recent decades, China has experienced the worsening of ambient air quality. For better air quality management to protect human health, Chinese government revised national ambient air quality standards(NAAQS) for particulate matter(PM) in 2012(GB3095-2012). To assess the effectiveness of current NAAQS for PM on public health in Chinese population, we conducted a metaanalysis on published studies examining the mortality risk of short-term exposure to PM with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 and 2.5 μm(PM_(10) and PM_(2.5)) in China. The reported24-hour concentrations of PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) in studies ranged from 43.5 to 150.1 μg/m~3 and 37.5 to 176.7 μg/m~3. In the pooled excess, mortality risk estimates of short-term exposure to PM.In specific, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(10), we observed increases of 0.40%(95%CI: 0.33%,0.47%), 0.57%(95%CI: 0.44%, 0.70%) and 0.49%(95%CI: 0.40%, 0.58%) in total, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, per 10 μg/m~3 increase in PM_(2.5), we observed increases of 0.51%(95%CI: 0.38%, 0.63%), 0.62%(95%CI: 0.52%, 0.73%) and 0.75%(95%CI: 0.54%, 0.95%) in total,respiratory and cardiovascular mortality. Finally, we derived 125 μg/m~3 for PM_(10) and 62.5 μg/m~3 for PM_(2.5) as 24-hour recommendation values based on the pooled estimates. Our results indicated that current Chinese NAAQS for PM could be sufficient in mitigating the excess mortality risk from short-term exposure to ambient PM. However, future research on longterm exposure cohort studies in Chinese population is also essential in revising annual averages for PM in Chinese NAAQS.     

Investigating missing sources of glyoxal over China using a regional air quality model (RAMS-CMAQ)

Currently, modeling studies tend to significantly underestimate observed space-based glyoxal(CHOCHO) vertical column densities(VCDs), implying the existence of missing sources of glyoxal. Several recent studies suggest that the emissions of aromatic compounds and molar yields of glyoxal in the chemical mechanisms may both be underestimated, which can affect the simulated glyoxal concentrations. In this study, the influences of these two factors on glyoxal amounts over China were investigated using the RAMS-CMAQ modeling system for January and July 2014. Four sensitivity simulations were performed, and the results were compared to satellite observations. These results demonstrated significant impacts on glyoxal concentrations from these two factors.In case 1, where the emissions of aromatic compounds were increased three-fold,improvements to glyoxal VCDs were seen in high anthropogenic emissions regions. In case 2, where molar yields of glyoxal from isoprene were increased five-fold, the resulted concentrations in July were 3–5-fold higher, achieving closer agreement between the modeled and measured glyoxal VCDs. The combined changes from both cases 1 and 2 were applied in case 3, and the model succeeded in further reducing the underestimations of glyoxal VCDs. However, the results over most of the regions with pronounced anthropogenic emissions were still underestimated. So the molar yields of glyoxal from anthropogenic precursors were considered in case 4. With these additional mole yield changes(a two-fold increase), the improved concentrations agreed better with the measurements in regions of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Yellow River in January but not in July.     

我国西南四省(区)大气煤基PAHs排放系统动力学分析

由于未来相当长时期内煤炭在我国的主体能源地位不会改变,全国许多地区均可能面临持续的大气煤基PAHs污染.为此,本文选取PAHs污染相对严重但缺乏足够关注的广西、四川、贵州与云南4个西南省份作为研究对象,基于煤基PAHs排放、能源消耗与经济发展之间的相互作用关系,利用系统动力学方法构建了一套综合评估模型,并将其应用于分析不同情景下西南四省(区)煤基PAHs排放的动态变化.结果表明,在维持情景下,未来10年煤基PAHs排放相对增长率的省份次序为:广西(44.54%)贵州(29.44%)云南(26.37%)四川(-2.19%).经过产业与能耗结构的调整,四川和云南在规划情景下的相对增长率分别比维持情景减少了27.17%和20.88%,这两个省的减排效果最大.同样的情况,贵州与广西仅分别减少了7.32%和5.52%,仍保持较快的增长趋势.要实现煤基PAHs的有效减排,各省份需实施有针对性的调控政策.云南应同时考虑工业源与生活源控制政策,四川应减少工业源排放量,广西和贵州应在进一步优化产业与能耗结构的基础上分别采取工业源和生活源控制政策.总体而言,系统动力学方法适用于分析非常规大气污染物的复杂动态变化,可为当地政府提供科学调控区域经济-能源结构-环境质量之间发展关系的政策参考.     

2017年5-6月国内环境事件

简要统计了2017年5-6月国内发生的各种环境事件142起,包括沙尘天气12起,污染事件16起,地震44起,山体滑坡和泥石流16起,以及其他自然灾害54起.     

Effects of speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings in China

Objective: The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of different speed-control measures on the safety of unsignalized midblock street crossings.

Methods: In China, it is quite difficult to obtain traffic crash and conflict data for pedestrians using such crossings, mainly due to the lack of traffic data management and organizational issues. In light of this, the proposed method did not rely on such data, but considered vehicle speed, which is a leading contributing factor of pedestrian safety at mid blocks. To evaluate the speed reduction effects at different locations, the research team utilized the following methods in this study: (1) testing speed differences—on the basis of the collected data, statistical analysis is conducted to test the speed differences between upstream and crosswalk, upstream and downstream, and downstream and crosswalk; and (2) mean distribution deviation—this value is calculated by taking the difference in cumulative speed distributions for the two different samples just mentioned. In order to better understand the variation of speed reduction effects at different distances from speed-control facilities, data were collected from six types of speed-control measures with a visual range of 60 m.

Results: The results showed that speed humps, transverse rumble strips, and speed bumps were effective in reducing vehicle speeds. Among them speed humps performed the best, with reductions of 21.1% and 20.0% from upstream location (25.01 km/h) and downstream location (24.66 km/h) to pedestrian crosswalk (19.73 km/h), respectively. By contrast, the speed reduction effects were minimal for stop and yield signs, flashing yellow lights, and crossings without treatment.

Conclusions: Consequently, in order to reduce vehicle speeds and improve pedestrian safety at mid blocks, several speed-control measures such as speed humps, speed bumps, and transverse rumble strips are recommended to be deployed in the vicinity of pedestrian crosswalks.     

分段进水生物接触氧化工艺处理河道污水的试验研究

选择滇池入湖污染负荷最高的大清河为对象,以分段进水生物接触氧化(SFBC)工艺对河道污水开展了分流处理的试验研究,已完成冬季枯水期、春季枯水期及夏季丰水期3个时期的研究.结果表明.SFBC工艺对水质变化具有很好的适应性,调整各时期的运行参数,可以使COD及TP的去除率分别稳定在50%和40%左右,但TN的去除受水温及溶解氧等的影响很大,在逐渐稳定后去除率可达到20%左右.接种活性污泥可以加快装置的启动.但总体去除效果不及来水自然驯化的污泥.随着运行时间延长以及来水带入河道底泥的影响.有无接种污泥在处理效率上的差别逐渐消失.     

双酚A和邻苯二甲酸二正丁酯在纸类上的吸附特性研究

采用序批式实验,考察了报纸对双酚A(BPA)和邻苯二甲酸二正丁酯(DnBP)的吸附能力,用Freundlich、Langmuir、Dubinin-Radushkevich(D-R)、Flory-Huggins(F-H)、BET、Temkin 6种吸附等温线模型对实验数据进行了拟合.并选择了回归系数(R2)、均方根差(RMSE)和卡方检验(X2检验)3种非线性回归方法评价了模型拟合度.结果表明,Freundlich和Temkin吸附等温线模型能很好地描述BPA和DnBP在纸类表面的吸附,BPA和DnBP的R2均大于0.95(P<0.01),RMSE和X2分别小于0.05和0.02;吸附能力与吸附质的疏水性呈正相关.由D-R和F-H吸附等温线模型拟合结果可知,BPA和DnBP的吸附平均自由能分别为1.484和1.609 kJ/mol;Gibbs自由能分别为-6.559和-7.021 kJ/mol.说明BPA和DnBP在纸类上的吸附为自发的物理吸附.BPA和DnBP在纸类上的Freundlich吸附常数k分别为0.147和0.502 mg(1-n)·L"·g-1,均高于文献报道的底泥等的吸附常数,说明生活垃圾填埋场中纸类会阻碍BPA和DnBP的迁移和生物可利用性.