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本文研究了水深的变化以波高与周期联合概率密度分布造成影响。本文将236组实测数据按水深因子H的大小进行了分组,分别对其进行了谱分析和统计分析,得到了各组数据的联合分布图。利用数值模拟的方法扩大水深因子的变化幅度,得到了模拟联合分布图。研究发现,水深因子的改变不会对联合分布构成大的影响,因此得现一般水的波高与周期联合概率密度分布模式适用于浅海的结论。 相似文献
13.
南水北调中线不同调水方案下的汉江水华发生概率分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为评估南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游水华的影响,从汉江水华的成因机理分析入手,提出了汉江水华发生概率的计算模型.该模型由河流一维水动力学模型、水体富营养化模型以及随机数生成模型组成,它不仅可以模拟汉江水华的发生机理,而且可以对诱发水华的各种因子进行随机抽样组合,从而求出中线调水不同方案实施后汉江水华的发生概率.计算结果表明,在现状情况下汉江水华的发生概率为9.2%,南水北调中线各调水方案(无引江济汉工程)实施后,汉江水华发生的概率将有一定程度的增加,而如果调水方案与引江济汉工程同时兴建将大大减少汉江水华发生的概率.最后提出建议,汉江自身的水污染治理是减少水华发生概率的最根本措施,而丹江口水库和引江济汉工程的联合调度将会减小汉江水华发生的概率. 相似文献
14.
自然条件下石羊河终闾湖泊模拟研究 总被引:14,自引:1,他引:14
石羊河流域史前曾存在大面积的终闾湖泊---猪野泽。自西汉开拓河西以后的两千多年以来,受人类活动影响,石羊河流域土地覆盖发生了显著的变化。灌溉农田取代了天然绿洲,而且面积逐步扩大,农业用水急剧增加,猪野泽逐渐退缩成许多小湖,并于近代干涸。在假设人类活动(主要是灌溉)对水资源未加利用的条件下(理想状态),通过确定流域的水量收支和改进水量平衡模型,对石羊河流域现代自然条件下“终闾湖”的面积进行了模拟重建,得出现代终闾湖的面积至少应为580km2。 相似文献
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环境是动物生存的基础,人类的活动对环境所造成的影响,直接导致动物种群数量的变动。通过渭河咸阳段气候、水质、水域面积、植物等环境因素的改变对野鸭数量分布影响的调查,表明环境的恶化导致了动物的生存受到威胁,数量减少,分布区域缩小。随着环境保护意识的增强,渭河流域的水土流失,水质污染、退耕还草等环境问题逐渐得到解决,动物的生活环境不断得到改善,其种群数量、分布范围随之增加。 相似文献
17.
MICHAEL A. SCHUETT 《Environmental management》1997,21(2):239-246
/ This study intended to explore the perceptions of mountain bikingmanagement through a mail survey of state park directors in all 50 states.With a 100% response rate, it was found that 47 states permit mountainbiking in their state parks, however, few state parks have formalized plansto manage this outdoor activity. The management policies that do exist arenot followed on a statewide basis but vary within each state and at eachstate park. Many states have worked cooperatively with local mountain bikingclubs to develop and maintain mountain bike trails, promote rider education,and provide volunteer patrols on trails. The issue of user conflict surfacedwith almost three-fourths of the managers responding that conflict existedbetween mountain bikers and other trail users. This preliminary study shouldprompt further research with on-site managers focusing on the use ofmanagement plans for mountain biking, cooperation between managers and usergroups, and user conflict. It is recommended that an Internet-basedinformation clearinghouse or discussion group be made available to landmanagers by a national bicycling organization.KEY WORDS: Mountain biking; State parks; State park directors;Recreation resource management 相似文献
18.
This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific
Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island
region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that
are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy
technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through
transfer of technology and via joint implementation.
It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries
and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It
is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute
very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
19.
WILLIAM E. HOGSETT JAMES E. WEBER DAVID TINGEY ANDREW HERSTROM E. HENRY LEE JOHN A. LAURENCE 《Environmental management》1997,21(1):105-120
/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees 相似文献
20.
Demonstration of Line Transect Methodologies to Estimate Urban Gray Squirrel Density 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Eric W. Hein 《Environmental management》1997,21(6):943-947
Sciurus carolinensis ) have been labor intensive and costly, I demonstrate the use of line transect surveys to estimate gray squirrel density and
determine the costs of conducting surveys to achieve precise estimates. Density estimates are based on four transects that
were surveyed five times from 30 June to 9 July 1994. Using the program DISTANCE, I estimated there were 4.7 (95% CI = 1.86–11.92)
gray squirrels/ha on the Clemson University campus. Eleven additional surveys would have decreased the percent coefficient
of variation from 30% to 20% and would have cost approximately $114. Estimating urban gray squirrel density using line transect
surveys is cost effective and can provide unbiased estimates of density, provided that none of the assumptions of distance
sampling theory are violated. 相似文献