Bayesian Decision Analysis for Evaluating Management Options to Promote Recovery of a Depleted Salmon Population

Abstract:  The endangered population of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Cultus Lake, British Columbia, Canada, migrates through commercial fishing areas along with other, much more abundant sockeye salmon populations, but it is not feasible to selectively harvest only the latter, abundant populations. This situation creates controversial trade-offs between recovery actions and economic revenue. We conducted a Bayesian decision analysis to evaluate options for recovery of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We used a stochastic population model that included 2 sources of uncertainty that are often omitted from such analyses: structural uncertainty in the magnitude of a potential Allee effect and implementation uncertainty (the deviation between targets and actual outcomes of management actions). Numerous state-dependent, time-independent management actions meet recovery objectives. These actions prescribe limitations on commercial harvest rates as a function of abundance of Cultus Lake sockeye salmon. We also quantified how much reduction in economic value of commercial harvests of the more abundant sockeye salmon populations would be expected for a given increase in the probability of recovery of the Cultus population. Such results illustrate how Bayesian decision analysis can rank options for dealing with conservation risks and can help inform trade-off discussions among decision makers and among groups that have competing objectives.     

Knowledge users’ perspectives and advice on how to improve knowledge exchange and mobilization in the case of a co-managed fishery

Environmental scientists have long been frustrated by the difficulties involved in transferring their research findings into policy-making, management, and public spheres. Despite increases in scientific knowledge about social-ecological systems, research has consistently shown that regulators and stakeholders draw on tacit, informal, and experiential knowledge far more than scientific knowledge in their decision-making. Social science research in the fields of knowledge exchange (KE) and knowledge mobilization (KMb) suggest that one of the major barriers to moving knowledge into practice is that scientists fail to align their communication strategies with the information-seeking behaviours and preferences of potential knowledge users. This article presents findings from in-depth qualitative research with government employees and stakeholders involved in co-managing Pacific salmon fisheries in Canada’s Fraser River. We investigate how members of these groups access, view, and use scientific information, finding both similarities and differences. Members of both groups express a strong interest in academic science, and self-report using scientific information regularly in their work and advocacy. However, the two groups engage in different information-seeking behaviours, and provide notably different advice to academic scientists about how to make research and communication more relevant to potential users. For example, government employees focus on the immediate applications of research to known problems, while stakeholders express greater concern for the political context and implications of scientific findings. We argue that scientists need to “go where the users are” in the behavioural and intellectual sense, and tailor their communications and engagement activities to match the habits, preferences, and expectations of multiple potential user groups. We conclude with recommendations on how this may be done.     

Characterization of Drought in the South Atlantic,United States

Drought has been less extensively characterized in the humid South Atlantic compared to the arid western United States. Our objective was to characterize drought in the South Atlantic and to understand whether drought has become more severe in this region over time. Here we used monthly streamflow to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurred when streamflow fell below the 20th percentile over three consecutive months and terminated once streamflow remained above the 20th percentile for three consecutive months. We characterized the frequency, duration, magnitude, and severity of events using the above definition. Significant changes in drought characteristics were tested with Mann‐Kendall over three periods: 1930‐2010, 1930‐1969, and 1970‐2010. We show that 71% of drought events were shorter than six months, while 7% were multiyear events. There was little evidence of trends in drought characteristics to support the claim of drought becoming more severe in the South Atlantic over the 20th Century. The one exception was a significant increase in the joint probability of nearby basins being simultaneously in drought conditions in the southern portion of the study area from 1970 to 2010. While drought characteristics have changed little through time, decreasing average streamflow in non drought periods coupled with increasing water demand provide the context within which recent multiyear drought events have produced significant stress on existing water infrastructure.     

Combined Effects of Climate Change and Bank Stabilization on Shallow Water Habitats of Chinook Salmon

Significant challenges remain in the ability to estimate habitat change under the combined effects of natural variability, climate change, and human activity. We examined anticipated effects on shallow water over low‐sloped beaches to these combined effects in the lower Willamette River, Oregon, an area highly altered by development. A proposal to stabilize some shoreline with large rocks (riprap) would alter shallow water areas, an important habitat for threatened Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and would be subject to U.S. Endangered Species Act‐mandated oversight. In the mainstem, subyearling Chinook salmon appear to preferentially occupy these areas, which fluctuate with river stages. We estimated effects with a geospatial model and projections of future river flows. Recent (1999–2009) median river stages during peak subyearling occupancy (April–June) maximized beach shallow water area in the lower mainstem. Upstream shallow water area was maximized at lower river stages than have occurred recently. Higher river stages in April–June, resulting from increased flows predicted for the 2080s, decreased beach shallow water area 17–32%. On the basis of projected 2080s flows, more than 15% of beach shallow water area was displaced by the riprap. Beach shallow water area lost to riprap represented up to 1.6% of the total from the mouth to 12.9 km upstream. Reductions in shallow water area could restrict salmon feeding, resting, and refuge from predators and potentially reduce opportunities for the expression of the full range of life‐history strategies. Although climate change analyses provided useful information, detailed analyses are prohibitive at the project scale for the multitude of small projects reviewed annually. The benefits of our approach to resource managers include a wider geographic context for reviewing similar small projects in concert with climate change, an approach to analyze cumulative effects of similar actions, and estimation of the actions’ long‐term effects. Efectos Combinados del Cambio Climático y la Estabilización de Bordes de Ríos Hábitats de Aguas Poco Profundas del Salmón Chinook     

多拷贝表达转鲑鱼降钙素基因酵母的急性、亚急性毒性

口服转鲑鱼降钙素基因酵母为鲑鱼降钙素的应用开辟了一条新的途径.为评价转鲑鱼降钙素基因酵母的安全性,将转基因酵母分别灌胃昆明种小鼠和Wistar大鼠进行急性毒性实验(7 d)、亚急性毒性实验(8周).急性毒性实验结果表明灌喂转基因酵母对小鼠无致死效应(LD50>10 000 mg/kg);亚急性毒性实验中高(2.0 g/kg)、低(0.5 g/kg)剂量组动物的一般状况、体重、主要脏器系数、血液学指标及血液生化指标与各对照组比较,均未见明显差异(P>0.05),组织病理切片检查未发现病理性变化.实验结果说明转鲑鱼降钙素基因酵母不会对实验动物造成不良影响,是安全无毒的.图3表3参16     

Metals concentration and bioaccumulation in the marine-coastal trophic web from Buenos Aires province southern coast,Argentina

Metals accumulated in the tissues of organisms inhabiting marine ecosystems generally reflect their bioavailable levels within that environment. The aim of this work was to study the presence and concentration of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn) and its bioaccumulation in liver-ink sac (n?=?12) and muscle (n?=?12) tissues of loliginid squids, Loligo sanpaulensis, in liver (n?=?15) and muscle (n?=?15) tissues of white croakers, Micropogonias furnieri, and in muscle (n?=?12) tissues of franciscana dolphins, Pontoporia blainvillei, as representatives of different trophic levels of an estuarial ecosystem from the southern coast of Buenos Aires. Except for Pb, all metals were detectable in the hepatic tissues. Bioaccumulation was observed for Fe, Cr and Ni in muscle of squids. Zn levels in muscle samples increased with the trophic level of the species analysed. Necochea-Quequén presents relatively high levels of Ni and Cr in the tissue samples of squids and fishes given other locations of southern hemisphere, indicating a possible anthropic enrichment. These outcomes provide the necessary basis for the environmental monitoring of an area with relevance for fishing and high anthropic activity.     

GROUND WATER FLOW AND RUNOFF IN A COASTAL PLAIN STREAM1

ABSTRACT: The quantity, seasonality, and sources of flow were analyzed for two segments of Four Mile Branch, a small stream on the Coastal Plain of South Carolina using data obtained from USGS gauging stations. Flows in the “upstream segment,” a 12.6-km² watershed comprising the head waters of Four Mile Branch, averaged 0.129 m³ s^?1 and showed a distinctly seasonal pattern, with maximum flows in February and March and minimum flows in September and October. Inflow to the “downstream segment,” a 2.2-km² watershed associated with the main channel, averaged 0.059 m³ s^?1 and showed no seasonal patterns. Discharges per unit area of watershed were greater for the downstream segment, 0.83 m³ per year per m² of land surface, than for the upstream segment, 0.32 m³ per year per m². The differences in discharge rates and seasonalities between the two segments reflect differences in aquifers supplying the different segments. Analyses of Streamflow by hydrograph separation and Streamflow partitioning methods indicated that greater than 90 percent of the flows in the upstream and downstream segments were due to ground water-driven base flows.     

Modeling Stream Channel Characteristics From Drainage‐Enforced DEMs in Puget Sound,Washington, USA1

Abstract: Mapping stream channels and their geomorphic attributes is an important step in many watershed research and management projects. Often insufficient field data exist to map hydromorphologic attributes across entire drainage basins, necessitating the application of hydrologic modeling tools to digital elevation models (DEMs) via a geographic information system (GIS). In this article, we demonstrate methods for deriving synthetic stream networks via GIS across large and diverse basins using drainage‐enforced DEMs, along with techniques for estimating channel widths and gradient on the reach scale. The two‐step drainage enforcement method we used produced synthetic stream networks that displayed a high degree of positional accuracy relative to the input streams. The accuracies of our estimated channel parameters were assessed with field data, and predictions of bankfull width, wetted width and gradient were strongly correlated with measured values (r² = 0.92, r² = 0.95, r² = 0.88, respectively). Classification accuracies of binned channel attributes were also high. Our methodology allows for the relatively rapid mapping of stream channels and associated morphological attributes across large geographic areas. Although initially developed to provide salmon recovery planners with important salmon habitat information, we suggest these methodologies are relevant to a variety of research and management questions.     

Role of peat organic matter on isotopic composition of most abundant benthic organisms in intertidal habitats of SW Iceland

The transfer of peat organic matter (OM) from tidal pools of upper littoral to downstream rocky shores and its potential incorporation into marine biota were investigated using the stable isotope approach. Samplings were carried out in September 2004 in two SW Icelandic sites (Osar and Hvassahraun), where we selected (1) areas with shores where grass gently declined towards rocks and, on reaching the sea line, formed small tidal peat pools and (2) areas where grass and rocky shores were not contiguous, rather the grass lower limits were several hundreds of meters back from the shore. In both grass and no grass areas, in the intertidal zone, all benthic organisms and all potential OM sources were sampled. Dominant macroalgae were Ascophyllum nodosum ([Linnaeus] Le Jolis) and Fucus vesiculosus Linnaeus. In grass sites, organisms partially reflected the isotopic composition of peat OM, while in no grass sites, peat represented only a negligible amount of available OM, or its signal was totally absent from the environment. Intertidal organisms could rely on peat both directly by suspension feeding, grazing or scavenging and indirectly by predation (crabs) on low level consumers (barnacles).