地下水水质评价的多元线性回归分析模型研究

运用回归分析理论和方法,建立了一个基于多元线性回归分析法的地下水水质评价模型,并将该模型用于遵义市海龙坝地下水水质评价.结果表明,建立的模型较符合本研究区的实际情况.     

企业可持续发展评价指标体系的选定原则及构建框架

为了制定企业可持续发展的战略决策,须制定可持续发展的指标体系,并依据这一体系对数据和资料进行收集、整理和分析,从而确定可靠而有效的政策方针。文中论述了可持续发展指标体系的定义、选定标准、原则和可持续发展的评价指标体系,提出了压力-状态-响应框架模型以及不同层次的指标体系框架。该指标体系分为总体层、系统层、状态层、变量层和要素层五个等级。对于持续发展的表征指标及对目前发展的可持续性评估,还需要长时间和切合实际的探讨。     

我国油气企业环境会计核算及信息披露的探讨

在国民经济中占有主导地位的油气企业同时也是造成环境污染的主体之一。因此,建立油气企业环境会计制度有极其重要的现实意义。文章针对我国油气企业环境会计制度应用现状,运用环境会计基本理论,对企业环境会计核算方法及信息传播模式进行了探讨,以期为油气企业环境会计制度的实施提供一些理论依据和具体方法,推动油气企业环境会计制度的发展。     

污染物排放相关指标计算方法的研究

针对传统的污染排放数据指标计算方法存在的问题,提出污染物排放指标应根据排污强度和经济指标确定的新思路,同时提出污染物排放指标数据的快速测算模型设计.建议通过环境监测数据或物料衡算数据确定每个排污单位的平均排污强度,作为计算机处理的参数,再由该排污单位申报每月的经济指标(产量或产值),输入计算机计算其产污量、排污量和去除量.实施计算机管理的关键是选取适当的数据计算模型.新思路应该能够规范计算程序,建立污染源动态数据库,对排污数据实行有效的统计分析.     

大气环境影响评价工作分级要求要点

根据大气环境影响评价工作的分级要求,提出了针对性的工作要点,以满足大气环境评价工作的需要.     

Impact of Human Activities on Carbon Dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Emissions: A Statistical Analysis

Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances. Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO₂ emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO₂ emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO₂ emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO₂ emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO₂ emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence on CO₂ emissions. Land use change and CO₂ emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO₂ emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO₂ emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural lands.     

BIOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED CONSERVATION PRACTICES ON SOIL EROSION AND FRESHWATER FISHERIES1

ABSTRACT: Farmers can generate environmental benefits (improved water quality and fisheries and wildlife habitat), but they may not be able to quantify them. Furthermore, farmers may reduce their incomes from managing lands to produce these positive externalities but receive little monetary compensation in return. This study simulated the relationship between agricultural practices, water quality, fish responses to suspended sediment and farm income within two small watersheds, one of a cool water stream and one of a warm water stream. Using the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model, this study related best management practices (BMPs) to calculated instream suspended sediment concentrations by estimating sediment delivery, runoff, base flow, and streambank erosion to quantify the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. By implementing selected BMPs in each watershed, annual net farm income declined $18,000 to $28,000 (1 to 3 percent) from previous levels. “Lethal” fish events from suspended sediments in the cool water watershed decreased by 60 percent as conservation tillage and riparian buffers increased. Despite reducing suspended sediments by 25 percent, BMPs in the warm water watershed did not reduce the negative response of the fisheries. Differences in responses (physical and biological) between watersheds highlight potential gains in economic efficiency by targeting BMPs or by offering performance based “green payments.”     

Simulation of vegetation dynamics and management strategies on south Texas, semi-arid rangeland

In this paper, we describe a model designed to simulate seasonal dynamics of warm and cool season grasses and forbs, as well as the dynamics of woody plant succession through five seral stages, in each of nine different plant communities on the Rob and Bessie Welder Wildlife Refuge. The Welder Wildlife Refuge (WWR) is located in the Gulf Coastal Prairies and Marshes ecoregion of Texas. The model utilizes and integrates data from a wide array of research projects that have occurred in south Texas and WWR. It is designed to investigate the effects of alternative livestock grazing programs and brush control practices, with particular emphasis on prescribed burning, the preferred treatment for brush on the WWR. We evaluated the model by simulating changes in the plant communities under historical (1974-2000) temperature, rainfall, livestock grazing rotation, and brush control regimes, and comparing simulation results to field data on herbaceous biomass and brush canopy cover collected on the WWR over the same period. We then used the model to simulate the effects of 13 alternative management schemes, under each of four weather regimes, over the next 25 years. We found that over the simulation period, years 1974-2000, the model does well in simulating the magnitude and seasonality of herbaceous biomass production and changes in percent brush canopy cover on the WWR. It also does well in simulating the effects of variations in cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control regimes on plant communities, thus providing insight into the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, cattle stocking rates, grazing rotation programs, and brush control on the overall productivity and state of woody plant succession on the WWR. Simulation of alternative management schemes suggests that brush canopy removal differs little between summer and winter prescribed burn treatments when precipitation remains near the long-term average, but during periods of low precipitation canopy removal is greater under winter prescribed burning. The model provides a useful tool to assist refuge personnel with developing long-term brush management and livestock grazing strategies.     

不同环境体系下锂离子电池热失控特性实验研究

针对锂离子电池热失控引发的航空运输安全问题,自主设计并搭建锂离子电池热失控灾害演化及危险性分析实验平台。在敞开和密封环境体系下,对电加热触发荷电量(State of Charge,SOC)为0%、50%和100%的18650型锂离子电池热失控规律进行了实验研究。观察单体锂离子电池在敞开和密封体系中的热失控现象,并记录单体锂离子电池热失控时间、温度峰值及相应的温度变化。数据结果显示,相比敞开体系,密封体系有效的延缓了锂离子电池发生热失控的时间,并降低了锂离子热失控时释放的能量,为锂离子电池的航空运输安全性研究提供了理论依据和工程技术参考。     

突发事件机理体系与现代应急管理体制设计

本文为了增加对突发事件的科学认识,提升应急管理的能力水平,首先对突发事件和应急管理的内在机理进行剖析。通过分阶段、划层次地构建"4L-5S"机理分析模型,将二者划归为统一体系,以理清其逻辑内涵;然后,为顺应时代发展特征,满足应急管理的更高要求,实现应急管理工作从非常态协同应对转为常态化职能管理,对现代应急管理体制加以总体设计。从而,突发事件机理体系设计使得我国的突发事件机理研究逐渐过渡至具有阶段性和层次性,现代应急管理体制设计使得我国应急管理整合出具备现代思维理念的逻辑框架。