Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850–2006

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.     

A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.     

PAH Metabolites in Bile Fluids of Dab (Limanda limanda) and Flounder (Platichthys flesus): Spatial Distribution and Seasonal Changes (7 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are important environmental contaminants which may lead to increased levels of neoplastic aberrations or tumours in fish liver. Therefore, monitoring of PAH and their effects are part of several international environmental programmes. The aim of the present field study was to investigate the concentrations of the PAH metabolites in fish bile, to elucidate spatial, seasonal and species differences as well as to discuss different strategies of normalisation with regard to environmental monitoring. Materials and Methods: PAH metabolites were determined in the bile fluid of dab (Limanda limanda) and flounder (Platichthys flesus) caught in the North Sea and Baltic Sea between 1997 and 2004. After enzymatic deconjugation, two metabolites were determined by means of HPLC. The limit of detection and the limit of quantification were calculated. The accuracy of the method was tested with a standard reference material. Results were referred to bile volume as well as to biliverdin. Results: The main metabolite, 1-hydroxypyrene, was determined in concentrations from <0.7 to 838 ng/ml in bile of dab (Limanda limanda) and flounder (Platichthys flesus) caught between 1997 and 2004. The values for 1-hydroxyphenanthrene in fish bile were considerably lower (<0.4 – 87 ng/ml). Significant differences in the 1-hydroxypyrene levels were found between summer and winter surveys as well as between the sampling sites in the data set from 2004 (383 dabs and 62 flounders): Highest levels of PAH contamination were found in dab from the German Bight and in flounder from the Baltic Sea. Discussion: Spatial differences in 1-hydroxypyrene concentrations between North Sea and Baltic Sea were discussed, as well as differences in relation to season, sex and species. Three parameters of normalisation (biliary protein, biliverdin and bile pigments) were discussed. Biliverdin was identified as a suitable parameter for the normalisation of PAH metabolites in field samples. Conclusions: Spatial differences in 1-hydroxypyrene concentrations of dab demonstrate the usefulness of PAH metabolites in fish bile as a monitoring parameter in marine regions. Significant differences in 1-hydroxypyrene concentrations were found between summer and winter sampling campaigns. This may be linked to an annual cycle of 1-hydroxyprene in dab. It is also possible that bile synthesis/release in dab differs between the seasons. There is no indication for a time trend from 1997 to 2004. Recommendations and Perspectives: It is recommended to relate PAH metabolites in fish bile to biliverdin concentrations. Although the concentrations are low in offshore regions and bile volumes are small, the method presented here allows one to measure PAH metabolites on an individual level which is a crucial prerequisite for meaningful monitoring studies.     

Estimation of riverine loads of nitrogen and phosphorus to the Baltic Sea, 1970–1993

This article presents the results of the first critical examination of time series of riverine nutrient-load data for the entire Baltic Sea drainage area. Water quality data collected by or for the different national environmental agencies were compiled and analysed statistically to identify and remove inconsistent or obviously incorrect observations. Moreover, sampling tours were undertaken to acquire additional information about the present nutrient concentrations in the largest rivers in the study area. Gaps in the time series of approved data were then filled in by employing statistical interpolation and extrapolation methods. Thereafter, the concentration and runoff data were combined to obtain estimates of monthly nutrient loads for the time period 1970–93. The results of the calculations showed that although there had been substantial changes in land use, atmospheric deposition and wastewater treatment in many parts of the study area, the total riverine loads of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to the Baltic Sea have been fairly constant since 1980, and most likely also since 1970. Moreover, the interannual variation was clearly correlated to the runoff. The mean annual loads for the time period 1980–93 were found to be about 825 000 tonnes N and 41 000 tonnes P, respectively. This implies that (i) several other investigators have strongly underestimated the riverine loads of nutrients, especially the nitrogen, and that (ii) the riverine loads by far exceed the input to the Baltic Sea from other sources, {i.e.} atmospheric deposition, direct emissions from cities and industries along the Baltic Sea coast and nitrogen fixation by marine algae.     

A novel approach combining bootstrapped non-intrusive reduced order models and unscented transform for the robust and efficient CFD analysis of accidental gas releases in congested plants

The risk assessment for safety-critical, complex systems is a very challenging computational problem when it is performed with high-fidelity models, e.g. CFD, like in the case of accidental gas releases in congested systems. Within this framework, a novel CFD approach, named Source Box Accident Model, has been recently proposed to efficiently model such phenomena by splitting the simulation of the gas release and its subsequent dispersion in the system in two steps. In this view, the present paper proposes a non-intrusive, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition-Radial Basis Functions reduced order model that exploits the two-step nature of the SBAM approach, to mimic the behaviour of the original, long-running CFD model code at a significantly lower computational cost. Moreover, the paper presents a methodology combining the bootstrap and unscented transform approaches to efficiently assess the ROM uncertainty in the safety-critical simulation output quantities of interest, e.g. the flammable volume. The results obtained in a test case involving a high pressure, accidental gas release in an off-shore Oil & Gas plant are in very satisfactory agreement with those produced by CFD, with a relative error smaller than 10% and a reduction in the computational time of about three orders of magnitude.     

HALOGENATED CONTAMINANTS IN FEMALE PERCH FROM THE MATSALU BAY (BALTIC SEA)

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). DDT-related substances, hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were analysed in female perch ( Perca fluviatilis ) collected in August and September 1999 in Matsalu Bay (Baltic Sea). Concentrations of all halogenated compounds were very low and notably lower than threshold values reported by FAO/WHO guidelines.     

Metals in Zooplankton from the Baltic Sea, 1980-84

Between 1980 and 1984, plankton was collected for metal analysis during four expeditions in the Baltic Sea. for comparison, samples from adjacent areas of the northeastern Atlantic Ocean were also taken. the mixed net-plankton samples were analyzed by AAS for metals (Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu. Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn). the results are discussed with regard to spatial and temporal trends and for comparison with data from other authors. Correlations among the contents of the different metals and between the metal contents and 'external factors' including salinity, season, percentage of co-collected phytoplankton, and concentration of dissolved and particulate metals in the water are considered.

There is a tendency for higher metal contents in plankton from the brackish Baltic Sea (Al, Mn and Hg), while other metals (e.g. Cd) show higher levels in samples taken from the marine environment. Except for mercury, no clear correlations could be found between the metal content in plankton and the dissolved concentration of the same metal in the ambient water. Otherwise, the contents of aluminium, iron, manganese and zinc in the suspended particulate matter and in the plankton seem to be partly related to each other.     

提高废水资源化水平推进炼油企业节水减排

分析了当前石化行业水资源短缺的现状和加快污水回用进程、提高水资源综合利用水平的必要性和紧迫性，着重介绍了镇海炼化公司在提高水污染防治水平方面所取得的成效，以及在污水回用方面所做的探索性工作。