How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

A human-centered framework for innovation in conservation incentive programs

The promise of environmental conservation incentive programs that provide direct payments in exchange for conservation outcomes is that they enhance the value of engaging in stewardship behaviors. An insidious but important concern is that a narrow focus on optimizing payment levels can ultimately suppress program participation and subvert participants’ internal motivation to engage in long-term conservation behaviors. Increasing participation and engendering stewardship can be achieved by recognizing that participation is not simply a function of the payment; it is a function of the overall structure and administration of the program. Key to creating innovative and more sustainable programs is fitting them within the existing needs and values of target participants. By focusing on empathy for participants, co-designing program approaches, and learning from the rapid prototyping of program concepts, a human-centered approach to conservation incentive program design enhances the propensity for discovery of novel and innovative solutions to pressing conservation issues.     

非对称开采条件下工作面“多向应力”变化特征研究

在非对称开采条件下,工作面受上覆岩层自重应力、超前支承应力、采空区侧向支承应力和回风巷煤柱应力等“多向应力”叠加影响,使得工作面应力呈“非对称”性。为研究非对称开采条件下工作面“多向应力”变化特征,基于微震监测、应力在线监测和理论计算,对母杜柴登煤矿30202工作面回采过程中所形成的非对称开采条件下的应力变化进行分析;并基于工作面所受应力条件和围岩体结构条件,分析了“多向应力”叠加显现机理。结果表明:30202工作面回采期间,煤柱支承应力沿走向分为应力升高区、应力明显降低区、应力缓慢降低区和应力稳定区,其应力峰值主要集中在工作面前方40 m左右,应力集中系数平均为1.61;在非对称开采阶段,在走向方向工作面超前支承应力影响范围较回采初期增加了100 m左右;在不考虑垂直应力影响的情况下,相邻工作面采空区的侧向应力对30202工作面倾向方向的影响范围为44 m,应力最大值为56.1 MPa。在“多向应力”耦合作用下工作面在回采过程中产生能量集聚,并在采动扰动下发生能量释放,满足了大能量事件发生的基本应力条件;同时在扰动条件下采空区发生高位顶板错动,以及围岩支护薄弱为大能量事件的发生提供了围岩结构条件。研究结果可为工作面非对称开采条件下采场矿压显现规律研究、顶板控制和巷道支护设计提供指导。     

农牧交错区土地荒漠化与生物多样性研究--以宁夏盐池县为例

采用α-多样性指数即Shannon-Wiener指数、Simpson指数、群落均匀度指数Jsw和Js和β-多样性指数(相似性系数Cs)研究宁夏盐池县草原群落在不同荒漠化治理措施下(人工封育、退耕还林、撂荒)生物多样性变化.2002和2003年固定样地观测数据表明,到2003年,各样地的α-多样性指数均有不同程度的提高,以撂荒地和退耕还林地α-多样性变化较大.Simpson指数、Js指数变化最为明显,分别平均增加了140%、109%,Shannon-Wiener指数、Jsw指数次之,分别增加67%、49%.人工封育不同处理区α-多样性指数也有较大变化,由核心＞边缘＞外围,变为边缘＞核心＞外围排列次序.β-多样性的研究结果同样表明,各样地的种类组成发生了一定的变化.文章还进一步分析了引起生物多样性变化的主要原因.     

Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

Patch Mosaic Burning for Biodiversity Conservation: a Critique of the Pyrodiversity Paradigm

Abstract:  Fire management is increasingly focusing on introducing heterogeneity in burning patterns under the assumption that "pyrodiversity begets biodiversity." This concept has been formalized as patch mosaic burning (PMB), in which fire is manipulated to create a mosaic of patches representative of a range of fire histories to generate heterogeneity across space and time. Although PMB is an intuitively appealing concept, it has received little critical analysis. Thus we examined ecosystems where PMB has received the most attention and has been the most extensively implemented: tropical and subtropical savannas of Australia and Africa. We identified serious shortcomings of PMB: the ecological significance of different burning patterns remains unknown and details of desired fire mosaics remain unspecified. This has led to fire-management plans based on pyrodiversity rhetoric that lacks substance in terms of operational guidelines and capacity for meaningful evaluation. We also suggest that not all fire patterns are ecologically meaningful: this seems particularly true for the highly fire-prone savannas of Australia and South Africa. We argue that biodiversity-needs-pyrodiversity advocacy needs to be replaced with a more critical consideration of the levels of pyrodiversity needed for biodiversity and greater attention to operational guidelines for its implementation.     

两栖动物在环境污染生物监测中的应用前景

简单介绍了生物监洲的优越性和选择指示生物的一般标准，沦述了不同生态类群作为指示生物的研究；重点讨论了两栖动物作为指示生物在环境监测中的优越性及其与环境的父系，总结了两栖动物在污染环境中的异常反应，综述了两栖动物作为指示生物在环境污染生物监测中的研究历史和现状，提出了利用两栖动物的形态和行为模式建立水体污染生物监测仪器的可能性，为生物监测提供了科学依据，表1参51     

A Global Indicator for Biological Invasion

Abstract:  "Trends in invasive alien species" is one of only two indicators of threat to biodiversity that form part of the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) framework for monitoring progress toward its "2010 target" (i.e., the commitment to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss). To date, however, there is no fully developed indicator for invasive alien species (IAS) that combines trends, derived from a standard set of methods, across species groups, ecosystems, and regions. Here we provide a rationale for the form and characteristics of an indicator of trends in IAS that will meet the 2010 framework goal and targets for this indicator. We suggest single and composite indicators that include problem-status and management-status measures that are designed to be flexible, readily disaggregated, and as far as possible draw on existing data. The single indicators at national and global scales are number of IAS and numbers of operational management plans for IAS. Global trends in IAS are measured as the progress of nations toward the targets of stabilizing IAS numbers and the implementation of IAS management plans. The proposed global indicator thus represents a minimum information set that most directly addresses the indicator objective and simultaneously aims to maximize national participation. This global indicator now requires testing to assess its accuracy, sensitivity, and tractability. Although it may not be possible to achieve the desired objective for a global indicator of biological invasion by 2010 as comprehensively as desired, it seems possible to obtain trend estimates for a component of the taxa, ecosystems, and regions involved. Importantly, current indicator development initiatives will also contribute to developing the mechanisms necessary for monitoring global trends in IAS beyond 2010.     

活性污泥运转效能的生物监测

讨论了θ/℃，pH,ρ(BOD)/mgL^-1,ρ(COD)/mgL^-1,ρ(SS)/mgL^-1,ρ(N)/mgL^-1,ρ(P)/mgL^-1,w(Cu^2 )/10^-6等几个影响活性污泥状况的理化因素，认为必须调节均化进水的水质水量，并调控污泥龄，回流比，曝气量等各种运行参数，分析了活性污泥的生理，生化监测法及运用细菌，藻类，原生动物，后生动物所进行的生物监测，提出通过监测原生动物群落动态是判断活性污泥运行效能的一种较简便准确的方法，比较了斑点杂交法（dot blot hybrid-ization)，最大机率法（most probable number methods,MPNM),抗体（antibody)法和荧光原位杂交（fluorescent in situ hy-bridization,FISH)法检测氨氧化菌（ammonia-oxidizing bacteria)数量的效果，表明斑点杂交法具有高的准确度，并能检测出较低密度的细菌，MPNM低估了细菌数量，抗体法有高估细菌数的可能，FISH法对氨氮含量高的活性污泥混合液检测结果较好，但对低氨氮含量污水厂出水和河水的检测效果不佳。