基于灰关联熵的汉江中下游地区水资源分配模型和方法研究

南水北调中线工程从丹江口水库调走部分水量，汉江中下游河道水量减少，水位降低，势必会改变汉江中下游干流供水区的水资源供需关系和生态环境条件，加剧该地区日趋严重的水资源供需矛盾，对该地区社会经济发展产生重要影响。在分析汉江中下游地区河道内生态用水、河道外社会用水的基础上，根据灰色系统理论，把灰关联度和灰关联熵结合起来，建立了基于灰关联熵的水资源分配模型，最终得到了该地区水资源利用的满意方案，对维持汉江中下游地区河道生态良性循环，保障社会经济的可持续发展提供了重要依据。     

社会选择理论在流域跨界水资源配置冲突决策问题中的应用

本文将社会选择理论引入到流域跨界水资源配置冲突的解决研究中,从群决策的角度寻找到流域内各区域一致同意的、满足水量分配公平的流域水资源配置方案。流域水资源配置冲突问题从表面上看是资源问题,实质上却是一个典型的决策问题。作为一种具有混合特性和稀缺性的自然资源,流域稀缺水资源的分配实质上是多主体参与的涉水利益分配,而分配的核心问题是如何通过合理的群决策机制协调水资源配置冲突中不同行政区域之间的利益关系进而实现公平。本文提出基于社会选择理论的流域跨界水资源配置冲突解决框架,首先从公平性角度将流域水资源配置冲突看成一个短缺资源的配置问题,利用P、AP、CEA和CEL四种破产准则获取可行的水量分配方案集合;其次运用社会选择理论中的PV、BC、HQ、PCM和FB五种偏好聚合方法进行流域内各行政区域个体偏好聚合的群决策分析;通过破产准则与偏好聚合的结合能够实现流域水资源配置冲突群决策结果的公平,所得流域水量分配方案易于被冲突主体所接受。最后,以华北缺水地区的漳河流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题为例进行研究,并比较不同破产准则及偏好聚合方法在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突中的应用。研究结果表明,社会选择理论与破产准则的结合在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题中具有较高的实用价值。     

湖域工业初始排污权合作配置体系构建——以太湖流域为例

针对湖泊流域工业初始排污权配置问题,在分析太湖流域工业初始排污权配置背景基础上,结合我国基本国情,从多利益相关者合作的角度出发,构建了一种政策型政府主体监管、经营型政府主体主导、多利益相关者参与的太湖流域工业初始排污权政府限额定价合作配置体系。并构建了合作配置体系的概念结构,以及合作配置路径结构,给出实现合作配置路径结构的工作流程结构。进而针对实际情况,提出保障太湖流域工业初始排污权合作配置体系应用的政策建议     

Modeling Waste Incineration for Life-Cycle Inventory Analysis in Switzerland

This paper proposes a mathematical model for life-cycle inventory analysis (LCI) of waste incineration in Switzerland. In order to model conventional and new incineration technologies adequately, fundamental aspects of the different technologies relevant for the LCI are discussed. The environmental impact of these technologies strongly depends on the assessment of the long-term emissions of the solid incineration residues and is therefore related to value based decisions about the time horizon considered. The article illustrates that the choice of the landfill model has a significant influence on the results of life-cycle assessment of waste incineration.     

Reserve Design to Maximize Species Persistence

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and determining the best of the promising solutions using a multiple-comparison statistical test. We use the strategy to address a problem of allocating limited resources to new and existing reserves. The best reserve design depends on emigration, dispersal mortality, and probabilities of movement between reserves. When movement probabilities are symmetric, the best design is to expand a subset of reserves to equal size to exhaust the habitat budget. When movement probabilities are not symmetric, the best design does not expand reserves to equal size and is strongly affected by movement probabilities and emigration rates. We use commercial simulation software to obtain our results.     

基于区域差异的污染物削减总量分配研究

随着污染物总量控制手段在我国的不断推进与深化,如何公平合理地在不同区域之间分配污染物削减总量是学术研究和政府决策关注的重要问题。在对现有的污染物（削减）总量分配方法及其体现的不同分配思想进行比较的基础上,充分考虑污染物从产生、削减到排放的全过程影响因素,提出了合情合理的污染削减分配公平准则。以COD削减总量分配为例,构建了相应的公平分配指标体系,重点考虑各地区在污染物结构减排、工程减排和环境质量状况等方面的差异,基于熵权法建立了体现区域差异的“改进的等比例分配方法”,并对我国省际间COD削减总量分配进行了案例研究。结果表明,这种改进的等比例分配方法,在考虑公平的基础上同时兼顾了各省市之间的差异性,为我国在不同区域间进行不同类型污染物的削减总量分配提供了新的思路与方法     

Responsibility,capacity, greenness or vulnerability? What explains the levels of climate aid provided by bilateral donors?

At the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, donors pledged to ‘jointly mobilize’ $100 billion/year for climate finance by 2020. The Copenhagen Accord and other agreements do not specify who should provide how much of this collective target beyond the general principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC), according to which the more responsible a country is for climate change and/or the more capable of paying, the more climate finance it should provide. Two additional burden-sharing mechanisms may explain how much climate finance donors provide: willingness to pay or ‘greenness’ and self-interest. These mechanisms are tested to determine which best explains current patterns in climate finance commitments by analysing bilateral climate aid. There is evidence for capability—richer countries provide more climate aid. In contrast, responsibility, greenness or self-interest do not induce more climate aid commitments. Better understanding the drivers of climate aid helps to mobilize more climate finance, and advances understanding of (sectoral) aid allocation.     

Below-ground carbon allocation in mature beech and spruce trees following long-term, experimentally enhanced O3 exposure in Southern Germany

Canopies of adult European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and Norway spruce (Picea abies) were labeled with CO₂ depleted in ¹³C to evaluate carbon allocation belowground. One-half the trees were exposed to elevated O₃ for 6 yrs prior to and during the experiment. Soil-gas sampling wells were placed at 8 and 15 cm and soil CO₂ was sampled during labeling in mid-late August, 2006. In beech, δ¹³CO₂ at both depths decreased approximately 50 h after labeling, reflecting rapid translocation of fixed C to roots and release through respiration. In spruce, label was detected in fine-root tissue, but there was no evidence of label in δ¹³CO₂. The results show that C fixed in the canopy rapidly reaches respiratory pools in beech roots, and suggest that spruce may allocate very little of recently-fixed carbon into root respiration during late summer. A change in carbon allocation belowground due to long-term O₃ exposure was not observed.     

Models for Initial Allocation of Emission Permits in a River Basin During Industrial Development： A Case Study of Huaihe River Basin, China

At present,water pollutant emission trading plays an increasingly important role in pollution control in many foreign countries,and its pilot studies and demonstration have also been started in China.In order to solve the problem of initial allocation of emission permits: premise and basis of emission trading in a river basin,basic principles on initial allocation of actual emission permits in China are put forward.And it is thought that local development stage of industry should be taken into full account for initial allocation model of emission permits.There are five different allocation models in different development stages of industry,including models like distribution according to needs,improved same-rate reduction,performance,integration and environmental capacity,etc.The initial allocation of emission permits in various basins should choose a suitable model in accordance with their respective development stages.It is suggested in this article that integrated allocation model should be a main choice for current development stage of industry in China.     

Efficient allocation of coal de-capacity quota among Chinese provinces: a zero-sum gains data envelopment model

ABSTRACT

An efficient coal de-capacity quota allocation scheme is key for accelerating China’s coal supply-side structure reform. This paper allocates the coal de-capacity quota from the perspective of efficiency to seek the optimal capacity allocation in each Chinese province. First, we estimate the coal capacity of 24 coal-producing provinces based on boundary production function model. According to the actual coal overcapacity in each province, we initially allocate the coal de-capacity quota of reducing 0.8 billion tons among them. Then, we optimize the initial allocation plan by using the zero-sum gains data envelopment model (ZSG-DEA) considering backward coal capacity, coal economic output, and coal resource endowment of each province. The results indicate that: First, there is coal overcapacity all over China, and there are obvious differences among the provinces. Second, the optimal allocation results show that the large coal producing provinces, including Shanxi, Inter Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., need to undertake most of the coal de-capacity tasks, while the old coal producing provinces in northeast and west China should undertake a heavier burden of coal de-capacity. Third, the “one-size fits-all” approach burdens the small coal producing provinces with reducing coal capacity, leading to a general low enthusiasm for coal de-capacity in these regions.