珠江三角洲森林生态系统碳密度分配及其储量动态特征

 在测定植被的含碳率与土壤有机碳含量的基础上,研究了南亚热带珠江三角洲地区森林生态系统碳密度分配及其储量动态.结果表明:植被平均含碳率为35.81%~51.60%,按照生物量加权的含碳率为46.57%~52.45%;土壤有机碳含量及其差异程度为表层最高,随土壤深度增加,有机碳含量及其差异逐渐减小;相同龄级的植被含碳率与土壤含碳量均表现为阔叶林>针阔混交林>针叶林,不同龄级的森林均表现为成龄林>中龄林>幼龄林.植被碳密度与土壤碳密度范围分别为23.58~139.18,55.54~151.16t/hm2,而且土壤分配比例均大于植被分配比例,但土壤分配比例随着龄级的增长呈下降趋势.1989~2003年间,珠江三角洲森林生态系统总体碳储量及其碳密度均呈上升趋势,这说明在改革开放高速发展时期珠江三角洲森林生态系统由于生物量的增加,起到了重要的碳汇功能,而且其碳汇功能正逐步提高.     

跨境水资源分配典型模式特征评述及中国主张思考

跨境河流治理的核心是跨境水资源分配问题。结合案例分析,从流域国利益关系视角概括出四种跨境水资源分配典型模式——“强权”模式、“传承”模式、“绅士”模式和“共享”模式,并从适用条件、磋商履约、运行效率和潜在问题等方面进行特征评述。对跨境河流水资源分配的中国主张提出如下建议：拒绝“强权”模式,依托“一带一路”走出“水霸权”话语困境;主张“共享”模式,倡导构建跨境水资源“命运共同体”;对水资源相对丰沛的跨境流域,主张创新特殊水情下的跨境水资源调控机制;对水资源相对稀缺的跨境流域,通过实施虚拟水贸易战略促进“共享”;排除外界干扰,主张建立独立、权威的跨境水资源协调机构。     

基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用

土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型（SCGE）的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架（CTSPM）,提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标“博弈”提供“辩论”平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。     

飞机整机级系统安全性评估方法探讨

为提高飞机整机级系统安全性评估效果,在明确整机级系统安全性评估思想的情况下,详细描述了整机级系统安全性分析和整机级系统安全性验证的流程;运用故障树分析法和故障模式与影响分析法研究了能够满足整机级系统安全性要求的评估方法和关键技术。实例表明:整机级严酷等级评估方法能够定性地防止颠覆性的逻辑错误;功能故障树可以对安全性指标进行精确的分配和计算;结合故障树和故障模式与影响分析法而形成的两阶段指标分配法提高了个别安全性指标数值,但仍符合安全性要求。     

降雨径流过程中土地利用优化配置对磷流失的影响

为了探究土地利用优化配置对三峡库区小流域径流过程中磷素流失的影响,选取重庆忠县石盘丘小流域内传统农业模式集水区（CG）和土地利用优化配置后的集水区（EG）为研究对象,分别在两个集水区出口采样,监测降雨事件中径流过程和不同形态磷素,分析土地利用配置对磷流失规律的影响.结果表明：（1）监测的10场降雨径流过程中,EG的ρ[总磷（TP）]均低于CG,两者范围分别为0.09～0.75 mg·L^-1和0.13～2.82mg·L^-1;相对于CG, EG显著降低了TP浓度峰值.（2） EG的TP、可溶性磷（TDP）、无机态磷（DIP）和颗粒态磷（PP）在降雨径流过程中的浓度平均值EMC均较CG低,且EG与CG在TP、 TDP和DIP的EMC上均呈现显著差异（P<0.05）;降雨径流过程中两个集水区磷流失的主要形式均为TDP,但EG的TDP/TP平均值更大.（3） EG比CG的TP、 TDP、 DIP和PP的输出负荷降低45%、 43%、 57%和47%,EG和CG各形态磷素输出负荷均与径流总量极显著相关（P<0.01）, CG各形态磷与径流总量...     

Multi‐Decadal Remote‐Sensing Analysis of Irrigated Areas in the Lower Rio Grande Valley,New Mexico

A time series of estimates of irrigated area was developed for the Lower Rio Grande valley (LRG) in New Mexico from the 1970s to present day. The objective of the project was to develop an independent, accurate, and scientifically justifiable evaluation of irrigated area in the region for the period spanning from the mid‐1970s to the present. These area estimates were used in support of groundwater modeling of the LRG region, as well as for other analyses. This study used a remote‐sensing‐based methodology to evaluate overall irrigated area within the LRG. We applied a methodology that involved the normalization of vegetation indices derived from satellite imagery to get a more accurate estimation of irrigated area across multiple time periods and multiple Landsat platforms. The normalization allows more accurate evaluation of vegetation index data that span several decades. An accuracy assessment of the methodology and results from this study was performed using field‐collected crop data from the 2008 growing season. The comparisons with field data indicate that the accuracy of the remote‐sensing‐based estimates of historical irrigated area is very good, with rates of false positives (areas identified as irrigated that are not truly irrigated) of only about 4%, and rates of false negatives (areas identified as not irrigated that are truly irrigated) in the range of 0.6‐2.0%.     

Research on interest allocation in resource industry chain: taking resources exploitation in China as an example

In this paper, interest allocation in the resource industry chain is studied taking resources exploitation in China as an example. First, qualitative analysis is used to conclude stakeholders and their relationship in mineral resource exploitation. In the following section, using the tool of price constitution and comparison method, the research on interest allocation along the industry chain shows that midstream and downstream companies have advantages. The next section studies interest allocation among resource owners, exploitation companies and local governments. Through contrastive analysis of the financial report of petroleum companies, this paper quantitatively measures the scale of revenue shifting from resource owners, the central and local governments to exploitation companies. This contorted interest allocation is an important factor resulting in exploitation confusion and the large revenue gap.     

Global information sampling in the honey bee

Central to the question of task allocation in social insects is how workers acquire information. Patrolling is a curious behavior in which bees meander over the face of the comb inspecting cells. Several authors have suggested it allows bees to collect global information, but this has never been formally evaluated. This study explores this hypothesis by answering three questions. First, do bees gather information in a consistent manner as they patrol? Second, do they move far enough to get a sense of task demand in distant areas of the nest? And third, is patrolling a commonly performed task? Focal animal observations were used to address the first two predictions, while a scan sampling study was used to address the third. The results were affirmative for each question. While patrolling, workers collected information by performing periodic clusters of cell inspections. Patrolling bees not only traveled far enough to frequently change work zone; they often visited every part of the nest. Finally, the majority of the bees in the middle-age caste were shown to move throughout the nest over the course of a few hours in a manner suggestive of patrolling. Global information collection is contrary to much current theory, which assumes that workers respond to local information only. This study thus highlights the nonmutually exclusive nature of various information collection regimes in social insects.     

Estuarine surface water allocation: A case study on the interactive role of science in support of management

The inevitable need for freshwater to support the projected population growth along the ocean coast is an emerging issue of potential consequence to adjacent estuaries. A large and controversial water withdrawal/reservoir project in Virginia's coastal plain was the basis of science–management interactions that quantified the vulnerability of tidal freshwater nekton for a series of water withdrawal scenarios. Through progressive iterations of the regulatory review process, which in Virginia includes academic reviews of all aspects of projects proposed to affect the marine and estuarine environment, we developed a novel approach to modeling entrainment probabilities applicable to situations that lack a locally validated hydrodynamic model. The science/management interplay ultimately resulted in surface water allocation strategies that are balances to society and the affected natural environment. Model results showed that the probability of encounter (contact between an egg or larva and one or more units of the intake array) ranged from 1.71% under the conditions of a high river flow and low withdrawal rate to 99.99% under the conditions of a low river flow and high withdrawal rate. The collective body of scientific information was incorporated into regulatory conditions placed on water withdrawals that are designed to protect at least 95% of early life history stages within the intake array's zone of influence.     

基于自适应遗传算法的应急物资储备库选址及物资调配优化研究

应急物资储备库是应急救援的重要载体,储备库选址是否科学合理决定着整个应急公共服务体系的成效,而传统遗传算法在研究储备库选址与物资调配相结合的问题上存在局限性。针对这一问题,从需求点及应急设施服务质量视角构建基于覆盖满意度和经济性的应急设施选址与物资调配优化模型,并根据模型设计自适应遗传算法(AGA),结合储备库实际情况采取具有方向性的初始群体生成法提高搜索速度,设计自适应交叉与变异算子使AGA能够在进化速度与解的质量之间进行权衡,并获得全局最优解。结果表明,该算法能跳出局部最优从而获得最优的选址-分配方案,可为应急管理部门和决策机构的应急设施选址规划及应急物资分配提供理论依据和决策参考。