黄土滑坡稳定性评价的反演分析

本文根据黄土滑坡的变形监测结果，同时考虑了边坡的初期应变分布状况，通过有限元反分析法，反推出边坡地基的力学参数，为黄土滑坡的稳定性评价和预报提供了可靠的依据。     

Impact of right-of-way construction on vegetation in the Red Lake Peatland,northern Minnesota

During the winters of 1978–79 and 1979–80, a 500-kV electrical transmission right-of-way (r-o-w) was constructed across the Red Lake Peatland in northwestern Minnesota, the largest contiguous peatland in the lower 48 states of the USA. Immediately before, and for two years following construction, vascular vegetation was monitored within the r-o-w and in undisturbed control areas. Monitoring was carried out in five vegetation types: a thicket swamp, a low shrub bog, a graminoid fen, a treed bog, and a treed fen. Evaluation of construction impacts was based on vegetation structure, irrespective of species composition, and on community composition (species data for low shrubs and herbs). Construction eliminated trees from the r-o-w. Vegetation structure, excluding trees, was markedly altered in the two bog types and the treed fen type in the first postconstruction growing season. By the second season, measurable recovery to control levels had begun. The sample plots were placed into a previously developed vegetation classification system for the Red Lake Peatland, on the basis of herbs and low shrubs. There was a shift in composition in the low shrub bog and in the treed vegetation types following construction. Results of both methods of data analysis were consistent. Major vegetation changes following construction occurred in the low shrub bog and treed types. The open, low-stature fen types showed almost no changes related to construction. Even in the affected types, all vegetation strata except trees were returning to their preconstruction status by the second growing season following construction.     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.     

Inner City regeneration: perspectives on the G.E.A.R. Project

Government responses to the problems of the inner city currently focus on comprehensive programmes of positive discrimination. The first and most extensive is the G.E.A.R. project in Glasgow. Regular monitoring of the effectiveness of such large‐scale initiatives is essential. If the physical and social aims of such policies are to be realised, assessments must utilise both objective and subjective indicators.     

GEOLOGIC INFERENCE FROM “FLOW NET” TRANSMISSIVITY DETERMINATION: THREE CASE STUDIES1

A graphical inverse method for determining the regional transmissivity distribution was applied to three field problems. The study areas were the Hanford Site, Washington; the Rocky Mountain Arsenal, Colorado; and the Nevada Test Site, Nevada. This method can aid in flow system conceptualization by revealing the location of bedrock controls for groundwater flow. It is a valuable tool for aiding the hydrogeologist in asking questions about the nature of trends in the pattern of transmissivity values. Quantitative estimates of regional transmissivities can be used as starting points for further parameter refinement. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulation shows that quantitative estimates of transmissivity can be obtained when measurement error in the hydraulic head does not cause a large error in the hydraulic gradient.     

JUSTIFICATION FOR A REDUCTION IN THE CREST-STAGE GAGE PROGRAM IN LOUISIANA1

The crest-stage gage program in Louisiana was evaluated to determine if the data were adequate for use in developing regional flood-frequency equations and to determine if any crest-stage gage stations could be discontinued. An abundance of data at many crest-stage gage stations and a lack of data for urban areas and flat-slope areas indicated a need for a shift in the number, type, and locations of gages. Correlations and comparisons of annual peak discharges and watershed characteristics of 96 existing stations resulted in the elimination of 72 stations and the addition of one new station, reducing the total network to 25 stations that could be used for future flood-frequency analyses. The adequacy of the reduced network for development and verification of regional flood-frequency equations was tested by comparing a set of regional flood-frequency equations developed using data from the full network with a set developed using data from the reduced network. The results indicate that the crest-stage gage network can be reduced to 25 stations and still provide adequate information for future flood-frequency analyses.     

Agricultural land evaluation and site assessment in the United States: An introduction

The US Soil Conservation Service has developed an agricultural land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) system. The LESA system is being used by the US Department of Agriculture and other federal agencies to implement the Farmland Protection Policy Act of 1981. The LESA system and three case studies from the Pacific North-west are introduced in this article.Scientific Paper no. 7166, College of Agriculture and Home Economics Research Paper. Washington State University, Pullman, Washington. Project no. 0010.     

Determining regional water quality patterns and their ecological relationships

A multivariate statistical method for analyzing spatial patterns of water quality in Georgia and Kansas was tested using data in the US Environmental Protection Agency's STORET data system. Water quality data for Georgia and Kansas were organized by watersheds. We evaluated three questions: (a) can distinctive regional water quality patterns be detected and predicted using only a few water quality variables, (b) are regional water quality patterns correlated with terrestrial biotic regions, and (c) are regional water quality patterns correlated with fish distributions? Using existing data, this method can distinguish regions with water quality very different from the average conditions (as in Georgia), but it does not discriminate well between regions that do not have diverse water quality conditions (as in Kansas). Data that are spatially and temporally adequate for representing large regions and for multivariate statistical analysis are available for only a few common water quality parameters. Regional climate, lithology, and biotic regimes all have the potential to affect water quality, and terrestrial biotic regions and fish distributions do compare with regional water quality patterns, especially in a state like Georgia, where watershed characteristics are diverse. Thus, identifiable relationships between watershed characteristics and water quality should allow the development of an integrated landaquatic classification system that would be a valuable tool for resource management. Because geographical distributions of species may be limited by Zoogeographic and environmental factors, the recognition of patterns in fish distributions that correlate with regional water quality patterns could influence management strategies and aid regional assessments.     

LOW DISCHARGE PERIODS OF RIVERS IN THE UPPER VISTULA RIVER BASIN,POLAND1

ABSTRACT: A method is presented for determining low discharge periods of rivers based on threshold values defined in terms of MEAN OF MINIMUM SUMMER (WINTER) DISCHARGES. The method is used to determine summer low flow periods in the Vistula River basin in Poland. Analysis is based on daily discharge data for 84 basins of the Upper Vistula River which was collected by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Economy.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.