Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 °C and “pursue efforts” towards 1.5 °C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 °C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs – even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 °C, the costs would be 5–6 times as high.     

Prenatal diagnosis of primary anophthalmia with a 3q27 interstitial deletion involving SOX2

We report an interstitial deletion of chromosome 3q26-q28 in a fetus in which anophthalmia had been detected prenatally. FISH analysis, using BAC clones encompassing the SOX2 locus, showed that SOX2 gene was involved in the chromosomal breakpoint of the deletion. This case confirms that haploinsufficiency for SOX2 plays a crucial role in human eye development and emphasizes the necessity of careful chromosomal analysis, including FISH analysis of the 3q region, in case of prenatal discovery of anophthalmia. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trisomy 2 due to a 3:1 segregation in an abortion studied by QF-PCR and CGH

Balanced reciprocal translocation is one of the known causes of recurrent spontaneous abortions. Cytogenetic studies of unbalanced miscarriages are difficult due to the growth failure of early loss and usually macerated abortions. We present a molecular study of an abortion in which the father carries a balanced reciprocal translocation t(2;17)(q32.1;q24.3) using QF-PCR and CGH techniques. DNA analysis showed the presence of a trisomy 2 due to a 3:1 interchange segregation. Recombinant events could also be investigated by comparing DNA samples from the family. We propose QF-PCR in addition to CGH as an efficient diagnostic method to improve our knowledge of unbalanced offspring in balanced translocation carriers. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics and recent trends of sulfur dioxide at urban, rural, and background sites in North China: Effectiveness of control measures

SO₂ measurements made in recent years at sites in Beijing and its surrounding areas are performed to study the variations and trends of surface SO₂ at different types of sites in Northern China. The overall average concentrations of SO₂ are (16.8 ± 13.1) ppb, (14.8 ± 9.4) ppb, and (7.5 ± 4.0) ppb at China Meteorological Administration (CMA, Beijing urban area), Gucheng (GCH, relatively polluted rural area, 110 km to the southwest of Beijing urban area), and Shangdianzi (SDZ, clean background area, 100 km to the northeast of Beijing urban area), respectively. The SO₂ levels in winter (heating season) are 4-6 folds higher than those in summer. There are highly significant correlations among the daily means of SO₂ at different sites, indicating regional characteristics of SO₂ pollution. Diurnal patterns of surface SO₂ at all sites have a common feature with a daytime peak, which is probably caused by the downward mixing and/or the advection transport of SO₂-richer air over the North China Plain. The concentrations of SO₂ at CMA and GCH show highly significant downward trends (-4.4 ppb/yr for CMA and -2.4 ppb/yr for GCH), while a less significant trend (-0.3 ppb/yr) is identified in the data from SDZ, reflecting the character of SDZ as a regional atmospheric background site in North China. The SO₂ concentrations of all three sites show a significant decrease from period before to after the control measures for the 2008 Olympic Games, suggesting that the SO₂ pollution control has long-term effectiveness and benefits. In the post-Olympics period, the mean concentrations of SO₂ at CMA, GCH, and SDZ are (14.3 ± 11.0) ppb, (12.1 ± 7.7) ppb, and (7.5 ± 4.0) ppb, respectively, with reductions of 26%, 36%, and 13%, respectively, compared to the levels before. Detailed analysis shows that the differences of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction were not the dominant factors for the significant differences of SO₂ between the pre-Olympics and post-Olympics periods. By extracting the data being more representative of local or regional characteristics, a reduction of up to 40% for SO₂ in polluted areas and a reduction of 20% for regional SO₂ are obtained for the effect of control measures implemented for the Olympic Games.     

Measurement of air exchange rates in different indoor environments using continuous CO2 sensors

A new air exchange rate (AER) monitoring method using continuous CO₂ sensors was developed and validated through both laboratory experiments and field studies. Controlled laboratory simulation tests were conducted in a 1-m³ environmental chamber at different AERs (0.1-10.0 hr^-1). AERs were determined using the decay method based on box model assumptions. Field tests were conducted in classrooms, dormitories, meeting rooms and apartments during 2-5 weekdays using CO₂ sensors coupled with data loggers. Indoor temperature, relative humidity (RH), and CO₂ concentrations were continuously monitored while outdoor parameters combined with on-site climate conditions were recorded. Statistical results indicated that good laboratory performance was achieved: duplicate precision was within 10%, and the measured AERs were 90%-120% of the real AERs. Average AERs were 1.22, 1.37, 1.10, 1.91 and 0.73 hr^-1 in dormitories, air-conditioned classrooms, classrooms with an air circulation cooling system, reading rooms, and meeting rooms, respectively. In an elderly particulate matter exposure study, all the homes had AER values ranging from 0.29 to 3.46 hr??1 in fall, and 0.12 to 1.39 hr^-1 in winter with a median AER of 1.15.     

Synthesis of TiO2 nanoparticles in different thermal conditions and modeling its photocatalytic activity with artificial neural network

Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticles were prepared by sol gel route. The preparation parameters were optimized in the removal of 4-nitrophenol (4-NP). All catalysts were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). An artificial neural network model (ANN) was developed to predict the photocatalytic removal of 4-NP in the presence of TiO₂ nanoparticles prepared under desired conditions. The comparison between the predicted results by designed ANN model and the experimental data proved that modeling of the removal process of 4-NP using artificial neural network was a precise method to predict the extent of 4-NP removal under different conditions.     

Absorption characteristics of new solvent based on a blend of AMP and 1,8-diamino-p-menthane for CO2 absorption

Aqueous 1,8-diamino-p-menthane (KIER-C3) and commercially available amine solutions were tested for CO₂ absorption. A 2-amino- 2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP) solution with an addition of KIER-C3 showed 9.3% and 31.6% higher absorption rate for CO₂ than the AMP solution with an addition of monoethanolamine (MEA) and ammonia (NH₃), respectively. The reaction rate constant for CO₂ absorption by the AMP/KIER-C3 solution was determined by the following equation: k_2,AMP/C3 = 7.702×10⁶ exp (-2248.03/T). A CO₂ loading ratio of the AMP/KIER-C3 solution was also 2 and 3.4-times higher than that of the AMP/NH3 solution and the AMP/MEA solution, respectively. Based on the experimental results, KIER-C3 may be used as an excellent additive to increase CO₂ absorption capability of AMP.