Sustainability Assessment of Future Scenarios: Methodology and Application to Mountain Areas of Europe

BioScene (scenarios for reconciling biodiversity conservation with declining agriculture use in mountain areas in Europe) was a three-year project (2002–2005) funded by the European Union’s Fifth Framework Programme, and aimed to investigate the implications of agricultural restructuring and decline for biodiversity conservation in the mountain areas of Europe. The research took a case study approach to the analysis of the biodiversity processes and outcomes of different scenarios of agri-environmental change in six countries (France, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom) covering the major biogeographical regions of Europe. The project was coordinated by Imperial College London, and each study area had a multidisciplinary team including ecologists and social and economic experts, which sought a comprehensive understanding of the drivers for change and their implications for sustainability. A key component was the sustainability assessment (SA) of the alternative scenarios. This article discusses the development and application of the SA methodology developed for BioScene. While the methodology was objectives-led, it was also strongly grounded in baseline ecological and socio-economic data. This article also describes the engagement of stakeholder panels in each study area and the use of causal chain analysis for understanding the likely implications for land use and biodiversity of strategic drivers of change under alternative scenarios for agriculture and rural policy and for biodiversity management. Finally, this article draws conclusions for the application of SA more widely, its use with scenarios, and the benefits of stakeholder engagement in the SA process.     

天山北坡城市群PM2.5浓度时空分布特征及影响因素分析

针对天山北坡城市群开展PM_2.5浓度时空分布特征和影响因素分析,对区域经济建设和环境保护具有积极的意义.通过地理加权回归（GWR）模型,利用MCD19A2气溶胶产品结合气象因子,反演得到天山北坡城市群2015~2021年3~11月的PM_2.5浓度时空分布,继而实现变化趋势和影响因素分析.结果如下：①研究区PM_2.5浓度高值主要分布在天山北麓和古尔班通古特沙漠之间的绿洲城市群地带,呈现“四周低,中间高”和“西低东高”的空间分布特征,2015~2021年研究区的ρ（PM_2.5）年均值为16.98 μg·m^-3,高值主要聚集在乌鲁木齐市市区部分,并向昌吉市和阜康市延伸递减;ρ（PM_2.5）月均值分布规律与年均一致,但存在季节差异,表现为：秋季（20.32 μg·m^-3）>春季（18.25 μg·m^-3）>夏季（12.47 μg·m^-3）,春季和冬季聚集现象会更明显;②研究区PM_2.5浓度年均值在2015~2021年呈现下降趋势,3~10月均值同样表现为下降趋势,仅11月表现为略有升高;从PM_2.5浓度变化趋势空间分布分析,下降集中在主要城市市区部分,尤其是乌鲁木齐市市区部分及其周边地区减少幅度最大,变化最为剧烈;③研究区气温、气压与PM_2.5浓度呈现正相关效应,而相对湿度,风速,大气边界层高度,降水量与PM_2.5浓度呈现负相关效应;各因子影响程度从高向低排列为：大气边界层高度>相对湿度>气压>气温>风速>降水量.     

哀牢山西坡主要植被类型的特征与物种组成

研究了云南哀牢山西坡主要植被类型的物种组成和群落生态特征,结果如下: 1)物种多样性在低山季风常阔叶林中最高; 2)乔木径级在中山湿性常绿阔叶林中最大,而乔木密度则在山顶苔藓矮林最大; 3)当取样面积达1 500m2后,各植被类型物种增加速度变得缓和. 图 4表 3参 32     

湖南南岭草地植被类型的数量分类、排序及其合理利用

湖南南岭山区的地带性植被是常绿阔叶林,由于不合理的利用,森林遭受严重破坏而出现了大面积的草山,面积约1497.2万亩(99.8万ha),占土地总面积的1/4强。本文运用二元指示种分析TWINSPAN和无倾向对应分析DCA的数学方法对草地植被进行分类与排序。利用48个样方和150个植物种的资料进行计算,在第4级水平上划分出12个主要草地植被类型,其中将近似的类型合并成10个类型。在第1级水平上明显地将海拔1000m以上的与600m以下的分成2大组;在其它水平上则根据其他不同生态因子(岩性、pH值等)将出现的区别种逐级分开。所得结果与定性分类基本相同,说明该方法是适用于亚热带草地分类的。 不同类型在开发利用上有很大差异,高海拔的植被类型应以造林或封山育林为主,并可适当发展木本药材;在平缓的山原上虽可开辟人工草地发展畜牧业,但必须要防止水土流失,坡度在25。以上的应封育;15—20°的地方可以发展林业与畜牧业;在海拔300—600m的丘陵岗地类型上可以发展薪炭林、经济林;在海拔300m以下,水源充足的地方可以发展果木林(柑桔等),缓坡丘陵地类型可建立人工草地,但应与林业相结合,在农区可进行粮草轮作。总之,应该建立人工生态系统,以提高经济效益和生态效益。     

Potential solar radiation pattern in relation to the monthly distribution of giant pandas in Foping Nature Reserve, China

Solar radiation is an important parameter in ecological process modeling, hydrological modeling and bio-physical modeling. However, models focusing on solar radiation in relation to giant panda habitat and seasonal distribution are limited. The research aims to form spatial models of 12 month solar radiation patterns and to investigate the relation between the solar radiation patterns and the monthly distribution patterns of giant pandas. The solar radiation model of Kumar et al. was adopted for this study in Foping Nature Reserve (NR), China. By comparing twelve monthly solar radiation patterns and calculating statistics such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation of the solar radiation, diversified solar radiation patterns over different months were obtained. Maximum solar radiation occurred in June and July, while minimum solar radiation occurred in December and January. The annual sum of solar radiation was 6954 MJ/m² in Foping NR. The range in solar radiation was smaller in hot months and larger in cold months. Radio tracking data of giant pandas were collected for twelve months and the ensuing maps were overlaid with the twelve-month solar radiation map to analyze the relation between the giant panda's monthly distribution and solar radiation. Our results showed that giant pandas prefer areas with lower solar radiation in warm months and select areas with higher solar radiation in cold months, which illustrates that the distribution of giant pandas is indeed affected by solar radiation. To a certain degree, it also explains the behavior of seasonal movement by giant pandas in Foping NR.     

长白山阔叶红松林不同演替阶段地表甲虫组成和多样性(英文)

鞘翅目昆虫多样性的变化是森林演替过程的综合反映.于2007年6~8月采用陷阱诱捕法对长白山阔叶红松林带不同演替阶段地表甲虫物种组成和数量进行了调查,并分析了该地区不同演替阶段地表甲虫多样性的变化趋势及主要生境因子对地表甲虫群落的影响.结果显示,长白山阔叶红松林内共诱捕地表甲虫23种,共511头,隶属于10个科.其中个体数最多的为埋葬甲科,物种数最多的为步甲科,优势类群为步甲科和埋葬甲科.不同演替阶段中,次生白桦林地表甲虫物种数和个体数高于原始阔叶红松林和次生针阔混交林,3个生境内地表甲虫多样性无显著差别.地表甲虫高峰期为7月份.不同演替阶段的样地中物种统计数量都没有达到渐进线,次生白桦林样地中实际物种只占估计值的67%,其它2个生境实际物种数都在物种估计值的95%区间范围内,略低于平均值.3个生境的地表甲虫种-多度曲线无显著差异,符合对数分布.胸高断面积和土壤湿度对地表甲虫的分布有显著影响,它们可以解释99.2%的物种与环境之间的关系.     

The archaeology of deforestation in south coastal Turkey

The Rough Cilicia Archaeological Survey Project investigates landscape transformation as a component to its regional survey of ancient Rough Cilicia (south coastal Turkey opposite Cyprus). Rough Cilicia was celebrated during antiquity for pristine cedar forests that stood between 1500 and 1800 m in altitude along the slopes of the Taurus Mountains. Today along the front range of the Taurus Mountains this forest is completely denuded or otherwise replanted with recent growth in the past 80 years. We employ paleoenvironmental analysis of relic cedar forests in the Taurus Mountains to construct a timeline of anthropogenic disturbances associated with population growth over time and thereby assess the sustainability of ancient forestry practices. To obtain these data, the team recovers pollen and carbon samples from geomorphologic trenches excavated in the cedar zone, tree ring data from dendrochronological survey of the existing forest, and archaeological data from remains of ancient highland settlements. Preliminary results indicate that current perspectives about the timing of deforestation in this region are flawed and that the initial deforestation coincided with regional site abandonment and population decline at the end of antiquity.     

秦岭西部不同发育阶段日本落叶松林凋落物层大型土壤动物群落特征

以秦岭西部小陇山林区不同发育阶段的日本落叶松(Larix kaempferi)林为研究对象,探讨不同发育阶段日本落叶松林凋落物层的大型土壤动物群落特征.结果表明,10 a日本落叶松林土壤动物密度和类群丰富度均显著高于20和32 a日本落叶松林,而32 a日本落叶松林土壤动物群落密度又显著高于20 a日本落叶松林.不同发育阶段日本落叶松林土壤动物群落的营养功能群组成也发生了明显变化,随栽植林龄的增加,捕食性类群的比例先增加后降低,而腐食性+杂食性类群的比例先降低后增加,植食性类群的比例呈增加趋势.不同发育阶段日本落叶松林的正蚓科、线蚓科、倍足纲、幺蚣科、步甲科、蚁甲科、双翅目幼虫和蚁科土壤动物类群密度存在明显变化,进而改变了大型土壤动物群落结构和营养功能群组成.凋落物层土壤动物对不同发育阶段日本落叶松林的环境变化十分敏感,可以用来指示林下土壤环境变化.