中国工业化进程与能源矿产供需均衡的研究

工业化与能源需求的均衡关系及解决工业化进程中能源供需失衡的战略途径是中国工业化进程中需要探讨的重大问题.文章运用协整技术,就1990-2008年间中国工业化进程与能源需求协整关系的检验,认为中国工业化与能源需求增长具有长期稳定的均衡关系,能源需求将继续保持增长,能源利用效率也将持续提高.然而工业化进程中重工业化高能耗结构特征与能源低效利用并存的困境以及能源供需矛盾不利于能源供需平衡的平稳发展.我国应适应工业化进程的基本规律,转变能源消费方式;走新型工业化道路,适当限制低附加值产业发展,鼓励产业向离附加值、低能耗、高技术产业转移;在实现能源开发利用技术进步和创新的同时.有效利用国内外能源资源;建立能源应急机制等战略途径来实现工业化进程中能源供需平衡发展.     

粤北地区干旱监测及预警方法研究

从农业生产实际出发,引入能够判断作物受旱程度的毛管破裂含水量、凋萎含水量等土壤含水量指标来确定干旱指标,根据土壤水分平衡理论,建立干旱监测预警模型,利用自动站气象资料和降水趋势预报对干旱情况进行判别和分析,并采用Surfer软件对干旱情况进行直观的图形显示.     

内蒙古省级层面碳汇总量评估必要性与框架初探

结合国内外最新研究进展，制定适合内蒙古区域特点的碳汇测算方法和评估体系框架，科学估算碳汇状况，系统分析我区不同陆地生态系统类型的碳汇大小及其机制，可提供关于我区陆地生态系统碳汇功能可信、翔实和正确的估算结果；新时期省级层面上开展陆地生态系统碳汇总量评估十分重要。     

Modeling the carbon dynamics of the La Grande hydroelectric complex in northern Quebec

A mechanistic semi-empirical carbon cycle model of the La Grande reservoir complex in northern Quebec, Canada was conceived in order to investigate the climate impact of such a large alteration of the continental water cycle. The model includes inputs from the drainage basin, organic matter release from flooded soils, CO₂ emissions across the water-atmosphere interface and sedimentation. Most input data stems from previous research by our group on those ecosystems. The model includes the seven reservoirs of the La Grande complex and was run for periods of 50 and 100 years. Terrigeneous dissolved, particulate and suspended soil carbon fluxes and concentrations were computed. Over 100 years, 31.3 × 10¹² g C are released from flooded soils, equivalent to 28-29% of inputs from the drainage basin. 40-74% of dissolved organic carbon is mineralized. CO₂ fluxes over 100 years are 50.5-79.8 × 10¹² g C, 46.4-67.9 × 10¹² g C more than in the absence of reservoirs. The increase in mineralization of organic matter and in CO₂ emissions is a result of the increase in cumulated water residence time due to the creation of the reservoirs. Changes in other carbon sinks and sources likely offset a part of this additional carbon flux to the atmosphere. In the first years following flooding of the reservoir, organic carbon release from flooded soils exceeds CO₂ emissions, implying the downstream export of large quantities of eroded soil organic carbon. After this initial period, CO₂ emissions are fuelled by organic carbon originating from the drainage basin.     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

Molecular composition of recycled organic wastes,as determined by solid-state 13C NMR and elemental analyses

Using solid state ¹³C NMR data and elemental composition in a molecular mixing model, we estimated the molecular components of the organic matter in 16 recycled organic (RO) wastes representative of the major materials generated in the Sydney basin area. Close correspondence was found between the measured NMR signal intensities and those predicted by the model for all RO wastes except for poultry manure char. Molecular nature of the organic matter differed widely between the RO wastes. As a proportion of organic C, carbohydrate C ranged from 0.07 to 0.63, protein C from <0.01 to 0.66, lignin C from <0.01 to 0.31, aliphatic C from 0.09 to 0.73, carbonyl C from 0.02 to 0.23, and char C from 0 to 0.45. This method is considered preferable to techniques involving imprecise extraction methods for RO wastes. Molecular composition data has great potential as a predictor of RO waste soil carbon and nutrient outcomes.     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO₂ conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.