Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge

While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran.     

Modelling llama population development under environmental and market constraints in the Bolivian highlands

Changes in the size of animal populations over time are mainly determined by demographic and environmental factors. Livestock population dynamics are additionally influenced by harvesting decisions taken by herders. In Bolivia, not much is known about current llama husbandry and the main influencing factors determining population sizes. We collected data on demography, environmental factors and market values affecting the current and future llama population in three different regions in Bolivia. We generated a population model and assessed the future development of the llama population including environmental factors (rangeland carrying capacity, disturbance phenomena), herd structure and dynamics, and economic market demands. We calibrated and validated the llama model on the basis of 20-year data sets of the regions of Oruro, Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model calibration by means of the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm yielded a model efficiency of 0.94. For model validation, however, the simulation slightly overestimated the observed llama population yielding model efficiencies of 0.91 and 0.87 for Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model outcomes were most sensitive to death and birth rates of juveniles and death rate of females compared to environmental or other demographic factors. Population trajectories approached an overall carrying capacity for Oruro, Potosi and La Paz of 8.8 × 10⁵, 9.1 × 10⁵, and 9.0 × 10⁵ llama individuals after 100 years of simulation. Hence, detailed monitoring of demographic, environmental, and economic factors can improve predictions of llama population development over time. Further management should focus on improving birth rates and lowering female mortality through providing supplemental food and shelters against the harsh environmental conditions of the Andean highlands.     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

Carrying Capacity: An Overview

Abstract

The concept of carrying capacity is derived from ecology, with widespread contentions of its theoretical connotations and applications in the international academic community, especially the impact of human activities on the environment. Disputes on carrying capacity have been occurring not only among biologists and ecologists, but also among mainstream economists. Based on their efforts, the author makes an attempt to describe its origin, connotations, problems, measurement, and at the same time note the latest international progress in this field.     

LCA与城市交通方式的选择

介绍了ＬＣＡ（生命周期评价法）地概念和研究方法当前交通原基础上，将ＬＣＡ思想初叔应用与城市交通方式选择。     

The Lake Tahoe Basin: A systems analysis of its characteristics and human carrying capacity

A systems analysis of the Lake Tahoe Basin indicates significant and accelerating environmental deterioration within the basin, suggests that Tahoe is poised for yet another round of urban expansion, delineates the portion of Tahoe's resources that are consumed by gaming recreation vis-à-vis outdoor recreation, and identifies the Federal government as a contributor to Tahoe's problems. In response to the need for a holistic approach to basin-wide planning and management, ecological carrying capacity concepts are explored as they may be applicable to the Basin's growth patterns, and ideas on establishing a carrying capacity for Tahoe are developed.     

Allowable use estimates for tracked vehicular training on Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site,Colorado, USA

A method is presented for calculating allowable use of tracked vehicles on the US Army's Pinon Canyon Maneuver Site in southeastern Colorado. The first step in this process is to determine the sheet and rill erosion rate on each soil series using the revised Universal Soil Loss Equation. Soil series are then ranked according to their trainability (e g., ranked based on how much vegetative cover can be lost without exceeding soil loss tolerance) Maximum onetime surface use, allowable surface use per year, usable hectares per year, and tracked vehicle days per year can then be calculated Examples are given to illustrate how these values can be manipulated to assist land managers and military trainers to better plan and match training missions to available land. Also, short- and long-term monitoring schemes are presented that can be used to verify or adjust estimates of allowable use. The methods presented can be converted to determine allowable use of other types of activities that disturb the vegetation and expose the soil surface to the erosive forces of wind and water (e g, recreational and off-road vehicles).     

承德市旅游环境承载力分析

我国旅游需求快速膨胀,游客数量急剧增加,但配套设施及管理、服务水平相对落后,旅游环境超负荷承载。选择承德市11个最具吸引力的景区,综合考虑资源、环境和心理3个维度,定量分析各承载力分量,在此基础上根据"木桶原理"确定承德市旅游环境承载力。研究表明:承德市全年的旅游环境承载力约为2 993万人,随着游客人数逐年递增,旅游环境承载力已接近饱和。     

小城镇环境承载力评价——以江苏省铜山县为例

在大量收集铜山县近几年统计资料的基础上,根据区域环境承载力指标体系的构建原则,从人口、自然资源、生态环境和社会经济状况等方面构建指标体系。共选取指标39个,其中发展类指标27个,限制类指标12个。按照指标体系的层次结构构造判断矩阵,采用层次分析法确定指标的权重。根据铜山县“十五”期间相关部门的统计数据和监测数据,以及生态县建设的相关指标,并结合各类指标的国际国内标准和江苏省的平均标准确定指标的现状值和指标阈值。采用环境承载力相对剩余率法计算2000年-2005年的环境承载力相对剩余率。结果表明,在这一期间,铜山县的综合环境承载力整体处于超载状态,其中人口控制、第三产业发展、矿产资源以及工业废水废气的治理等指标发展较好。不足之处体现在经济的发展还是建立在高能耗、高污染物排放的基础上,人均自然资源量偏低,高新技术产业占规模以上工业比重较低,科研教育以及环保投入尚不足等。随着环境治理投入的加大,综合环境承载力呈上升趋势,环境状况逐渐好转。根据评价结果,结合铜山县的发展现状,从优化产业结构、加强污染防治以及加强生态建设和法律法规建设等方面提出提高铜山县环境承载力的途径和对策。     

浅析工业园区生态系统承载力评价指标的建立及其应用

工业园区生态系统承载力的评价指标体系研究与应用分析,对实现工业园区整个生态系统的可持续发展有着实际意义。本文对工业园区生态系统承栽力的概念进行了界定,从支持与压力两个方面构建了工业园区生态系统承载力的评价指标体系,另外用承载率定量化评价方法对工业园区生态系统承载力进行了研究。最后从四个方面探讨了工业园区生态系统承载力如何应用于生态工业园区规划。