资源型重工业城市生态承载力评价

从城市生态承载力的三类变量之间的关系出发,构建城市生态承载力评价模型;并以资源型重工业城市抚顺市2000～2009年数据为基础,分析了该市的生态压力参数和生态弹性力参数的变化情况,评价了抚顺市的生态承载力水平。结果表明:抚顺市生态承载力变化分为3个阶段,平稳期(2000～2002年)、起伏期(2002～2007年)和递增期(2007～2009年);生态承载力水平由2000年的-0.311增长到2009年的-0.017,抚顺市一直处于重载状态,属于高耗损型,强不可持续发展模式,但有趋于可持续发展的趋势。     

沈阳市畜禽养殖环境承载力分析及预测

运用系统分析方法中灰色预测模型,对沈阳市自然状态下和处理部分粪污情况下的畜禽养殖环境承载能力进行了分析和预测。计算结果表明,应用灰色预测模型对畜禽养殖环境承载力进行分析,精确度较高。对沈阳市各区(县)、市畜禽养殖环境承载力进行了分析预测,依据计算得出的相应地区畜禽养殖环境承载力结果,能够更加科学地为畜禽养殖空间布局提供参考。同时分析得出,提高畜禽粪污处理率,可以有效的延缓畜禽养殖业给环境带来的生态压力,推迟畜禽养殖环境承载力达到警戒值的年限。     

Modelling interactions between scavenger behaviour and farming practices: Impacts on scavenger population and ecosystem service efficiency

Long term conservation of ecosystem services requires a deep understanding of their basic processes and the development of tools to assess the effects of human practices on their efficiency. As an example of recycling service, we focus on the consumption of livestock carcasses by obligate scavengers, taking the case of vultures which face a dramatic decline worldwide. We investigate whether maintaining this recycling service through individual feeding stations called light feeding stations in contrast to aggregated resource on heavy feeding stations can meet the double objectives of vulture conservation and service efficiency. We built a spatially explicit multi-agent model to investigate the long term effects of livestock farmers practices on both the recycling service efficiency for farmers and vulture population carrying capacity including: (i) carcass disposal practices that drive the quantity and spatial distribution of resources for vultures and (ii) temporal distribution of livestock mortality due to economic choices that drive the dynamics of resources for vultures. In addition, we examine various scenarios related to vulture feeding behaviour - i.e. central place vs. random foraging and contest vs. scramble intraspecific competition - that may play a role in the vulture carrying capacity and recycling service efficiency. When accounting for vulture central place foraging, we found that favouring the use of light feeding stations instead of heavy feeding station does not affect vulture population carrying capacity and increases the number of farmer for which vulture service is optimal. The increase of light feeding station users poorly affects the number of farmers for which vulture service is optimal in contrast to results obtained with a vulture random foraging behaviour. Both of the recycling service efficiency and the vulture carrying capacity vary with the kind of intraspecific competition and with the seasonal distribution of livestock mortality. Livestock mortality distributions with a seasonal peak of mortality result in a mismatch between vulture food requirement and farmers needs for carcass removal. Finally we raise several points on the relevance of light feeding stations as a sustainable management for vulture conservation and for the recycling service and discuss the potential implications of seasonal scarcity of resources due to farming economic constraints.     

基于系统动力学模型的徐州市水资源承载力研究

本文运用系统动力学原理,构建了徐州市水资源承载力系统SD模型。并利用该模型,研究徐州市水资源承载力在不同发展方案下的变化趋势。最终得出开源、节流、治污并举的综合方案是徐州市水资源可持续发展利用的最优方案,同时指出开源措施对徐州市水资源承载力提高效果最为明显。并有针对性的提出提高徐州水资源承载力的建议与措施。     

Towards carrying capacity assessment for aquaculture in the Bolinao Bay, Philippines: A numerical study of tidal circulation

The increase in intensive aquaculture production in the Bolinao Bay, Philippines reached the point of harmful influence to production stock. Up to the present, there has been no estimation of aquaculture carrying capacity which is based on quantification of processes responsible for (a) water quality inside the units, (b) impact to the seabed and (c) water quality in the whole Bolinao Bay. The numerical estimation of tidal circulation, which is the most dominant part of the hydrodynamical regime in the Bolinao Bay, represents an unavoidable step in the carrying capacity determination considering points (a), (b) and (c). The hydrodynamical model we apply is a free surface, 3D finite element tidal model, forced with sea elevation dynamics at three open boundaries. It incorporates an increase in bottom stress drag coefficients in the coral areas and advanced transport corrected advection scheme. The model simulations of water flow show good agreement with measured currents in the central part of the Bolinao Bay, southern and northeastern channel, while agreement in the areas in vicinity of northern channel is not as tight. In order to provide an insight into the water exchange in aquaculture units, to support local water quality models and seabed deposition models (points (a) and (b)), the area is mapped with neap tide mean, spring tide mean and 14-day mean current velocity contours. The highest 14-day mean velocities are attained in the southern channel (>17 cm s⁻¹), while the mean velocities characteristic for northern part (<6 cm s⁻¹) and shallow areas of coral reefs (<2 cm s⁻¹) are much lower. Area-mean difference between spring tide and 14-day mean velocities is estimated to be 18.32% (std=7.31%), while difference between neap tide and 14-day mean velocities is 17.62 % (std=11.19%). To support global basin-wide water quality models (point (c)), retention of water in the bay is estimated by Lagrangian and Eulerian calculation procedure of mean residence time field. Both calculations estimate the highest (no-wind) residence times (Lan: 25.4 days, Eul: 21.03 days) in the central northern part, but most of the area (Lan: 73.11%, Eul: 79.31%) is characterized by residence time values significantly lower than 15 days. The results are readily applicable for upcoming implementation in the models of local (aquaculture units, seabed) and basin-wide (Bolinao Bay) nutrient dynamics, primary and secondary production, organic matter decomposition and oxygen dynamics.